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Fantasy Baseball by the Numbers: Yordan Alvarez, Luis Gil, Bobby Witt Jr.

Fantasy Baseball by the Numbers: Yordan Alvarez, Luis Gil, Bobby Witt Jr.

Now that we are two weeks into the season – as I suggested last week – people are starting to care more about stats. My reach is no doubt becoming global. But numbers can be deceiving, and content creators will cherry-pick stats to drive preconceived narratives and opinions.

Which I will do now! Let’s get started.

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Fantasy Baseball by the Numbers

Of These Four Players, Which Is Not in the Top Three in xwOBA?

That is actually the order.

Shohei Ohtani is fourth behind Brandon Nimmo in xWOBA. Ohtani, is behind Nimmo in xWOBA. That is correct.

Yordan Alvarez being No. 1 is bananas.

Which of These Yordan Alvarez Stats Through 2024 Is a Lie?

  • Alvarez has more singles and doubles combined than strikeouts
  • Alvarez is leading the league in xWOBA
  • Alvarez’s expected slugging is 1st in MLB, over .900
  • Alvarez’s BABIP is sub .275, even though he is top five in barrel rate in 2024

Trick question:  They are all true.

Speaking of overreacting to two weeks, I am already taking an L on one of my predictions early in the year.

I thought Bobby Witt Jr. would not be worth a top-three pick because of his supporting cast. However, he has a 73% hard-hit rate, sports an OBP of .409 and is a demon on the bases. The guy really might be a generational player. Sorry, Bobby.

Pitchers With the Highest xWOBA in MLB (Min 100 Pitches) & the General Round They Were Drafted in (per ADP in a 12-Team League)

Can you guess the missing pitchers?

If you were the manager who drafted that pitcher in the third round, you know who I am talking about.

I’ll give you the answer key at the end.

In direct conflict with the health of my marriage, I dove into pitching stats over the summer and became fascinated by some of the stats out there. Sometimes, I feel like we miss the forest through the trees and hyper-focus on outcomes, and instead, we need to think about what makes a pitcher dominant:

  • Perceived Velocity > 92 MPH
  • Spin Rate > 2,300 RPM
  • Extension off mound > 7 ft

If pitchers have any of these qualities, they would be in the top 10% in that category. But who has all of them combined?

I’ll give you the answer key at the end.

Just kidding, it is:

That’s it, that’s the whole list. And they are both Dodgers.

Now drop down extension off the mound to 6.5 feet (above average), and we can add:

Now, let’s keep the 6.5-foot extension off the mound and the elite RPM, but they need to throw an average of 93.5 MPH.

Only one player matches that criteria:

  • Luis Gil

I told you I would cherry-pick stats, but this one is interesting. I will be going after Gil in my leagues.

Random, but Garrett Crochet has an average fastball of 92 mph but a perceived velocity of 83 mph. How is that possible? That seems bad long term

Answer Key:

Onto week 3.

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