Which players are enjoying an unsustainable hot streak right now? Which players are uncharacteristically cold? And, which have been receiving too much or too little luck of late?
This weekly article highlights players who are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance to assist fantasy managers in viewing each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
(Stats up to date through April 29)
Players Due for Positive Regression
With averages of 36 home runs and 99 RBI to go with a .286 AVG, Austin Riley has become a perennial MVP candidate, finishing among the top seven in NL balloting each of the last three years. So, to see him sitting with a .225/.301/.369 slash line with only two long balls a month into the season is quite concerning.
Riley got off to a solid enough start, hitting safely in 14 of his first 17 games while batting .284 with a .500 SLG and 11 extra-base hits. Things have taken a significant turn since then. Over his last 10 games, the 27-year-old slugger has picked up only four hits (all singles). He’s driven in just two runs in that span – despite hitting from the third spot in the Braves lineup – and struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances.
Still, there are some encouraging signs lying underneath Riley’s sub-par surface stats. He has produced a 50.0 HardHit% with five barrels (20.8%) during this stretch. He’s also regularly elevating the ball (66.7%) yet has not sent one out. In fact, Riley has not homered since April 7, a stretch of 19 games (76 AB). Expect that to change soon, along with his overall lack of production.
Suffice it to say, fantasy managers were not looking for an ERA approaching 5.00 when they selected Pablo Lopez as a top-10 SP. Of his six starts to this point, the Minnesota ace has been less than stellar in four of them. The long ball has largely been Lopez’s undoing, as he’s surrendered six homers across 31 2/3 innings (1.71 HR/9), with five of those coming over his last four starts (2.37 HR/9).
Aside from the home runs, Lopez has actually turned in some strong marks. His current strikeout rate (29.4%) would be a career-best, as would his .218 AVG against, 1.04 WHIP, 71.3 Contact%, 14.6 LD% and 5.6 BB%. His groundball rate (41.5%) is a tick down, while the fly balls (43.9%) are up from his norms. However, Lopez has a long enough track record to believe both will course correct.
Pablo López's 7th and 8th Ks thru 4…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/op9n6rGA4u
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 28, 2024
In short, Lopez has been pitching well, with a few inopportune lapses along the way. Yes, this past week was certainly frustrating, with lackluster efforts against the White Sox and Angels. Fantasy managers should still stick with Lopez or even “buy low” on him if the opportunity presents itself.
Players Due for Negative Regression
With six multi-hit games over the past couple of weeks, including one with four knocks and two of his five homers on the season, Connor Wong has been on fire at the dish. He’s currently batting .343 with a .948 OPS and 13 RBI across 71 plate appearances. Per Statcast, however, those numbers are significantly inflated from where they should be.
Hiding behind Wong’s great stats is an unsustainable .375 BABIP and a .243 xBA and .428 xSLG (.582 SLG). His contact (76.3 Contact%, 87.1 Z-Contact%) and strikeout rates (21.1 K%) have markedly improved over last year, but his batted-ball profile does not support the drastic uptick in production.
Wong has recorded just a 30.2 HardHit%, 85.1 mph EV and 19.2 LD% for the campaign. All of those marks come short of the ones he posted during his rookie season of 2023 when he hit .235 with a .673 OPS, nine homers and an ugly 33.3% K% over 403 plate appearances.
A couple of seasons ago, Tyler Anderson had a career year for the other LA club and earned his only All-Star selection to date. He cashed that in for a three-year deal with the Angels, but the lefty’s first campaign in Anaheim did not go well, as he turned in a 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP across 141 innings. To this point in 2024, Anderson has looked more like the 2022 version of himself.
Through his first five starts this year, Anderson has cruised to the tune of a 1.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while limiting the opposition to a .176 AVG. He began the season by working seven scoreless frames against both the Marlins and Rays. Still, Anderson has remained effective against better offenses since, mostly recently holding the Orioles to two runs over five innings. He walked four batters last time out but also struck out a season-high seven.
Even though he delivered a decent strikeout total against the Orioles, Anderson still has just a 17.2 K% for the season. Combined with a 10.7 BB%, that’s a bit concerning. His .181 BABIP and 94.9% strand rate are even more concerning, as neither are close to sustainable. Anderson’s career marks in those areas coming into this season were .289 and 71.%, respectively, and a 5.05 xFIP is the loudest alarm bell of all.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros. He has been an analyst in the fantasy sports industry for the past decade, covering the NFL and MLB. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
