It’s never too early to start talking about fantasy football running back busts. Finding out which players may heavily underperform expectations takes far more than just comparing their final ranking last year with their current ADP or consensus rank. That’s because injuries and changes to a player’s role or situation can have huge impacts on every player’s season-long output or final ranking. Injury-prone players or athletes who start the season hurt are always a massive risk, especially in the early rounds. Plus, changes like the loss of a reliable quarterback or the potential for a younger player to steal a veteran’s job are risks to account for when evaluating every skill player across the football landscape. Inconsistent, boom-or-bust athletes who produced the majority of their fantasy points in a few games are another trap that ensnares plenty of fantasy managers each year.
Our featured pundits know exactly what to look for when identifying potential busts. So, to help you begin your research, they’ve each listed a running back they think has the biggest odds of falling short of expectations. Read on below to see who you may want to think twice about selecting and why.
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Early Fantasy Football Running Back Busts
What RB in our consensus top 24 should fantasy managers fear the most as a bust candidate?
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI )
“D’Andre Swift (RB23 in the rankings) is someone I will avoid drafting this year. He was the RB23 last season, averaging 11.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While the veteran lost nearly every goal-line touchdown to Jalen Hurts, Swift accounted for over 66% of the Philadelphia Eagles’ backfield rushing attempts. Unfortunately, that’s unlikely to happen with the Chicago Bears with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson around. More importantly, he went from playing behind arguably the top offensive line in the NFL to one that ranked 23rd in run blocking by PFF in 2023. Furthermore, the Bears should be a pass-first offense with Caleb Williams under center.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“D’Andre Swift is currently the consensus RB23, and I am having none of it. We saw what happened to Miles Sanders in Carolina after leaving the supremely run-friendly Eagles last season. Now, history is set to repeat itself in Chicago. Swift also faces way more competition in his new backfield than Sanders did in the form of Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert. Herbert offers consistency while Johnson showed off his chops in the passing game. Swift is talented enough to become the 1A in this backfield, but I don’t see him as a major upgrade over the incumbent backs given his track record. And with all the other weapons available to Caleb Williams in the passing game, I’m not counting on Swift getting enough touches to warrant his current ranking.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE )
“Rhamondre Stevenson finds himself in a very tough spot for 2024. The Patriots offense projects as a bottom 5 unit in the league, and with that may come limited big game potential for Stevenson on a weekly basis (only 4 TDs in 12 games for 2023). What also draws me away from Stevenson are health concerns, with Stevenson playing in only 12 games in two of his three seasons in the league. I also am asking myself, is drafting a New England Patriots player going to help you win your fantasy leagues in 2024? The answer from me is a big, resounding, no.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
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