BBMV is LIVE! Temperatures are rising. Hot best ball summer will be full speed ahead soon. It’s time to start crushing drafts immediately as we chase that 1.5 million dollar top prize for BBMV. As I outline my top 10 best ball draft targets right now, check out my Best Ball rankings, and let’s swing from the heels in this 2024 season.
*ADP per Underdog Fantasy
2024 Top 10 Early Best Ball Draft Targets
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) | ADP: QB8, 80.1 overall
Last year, once Murray returned, he was the QB9 in fantasy points per game, operating a tick below previous fantasy production numbers, so let’s consider that close to his floor for 2024. While his rushing production was still strong, it was lower than his previous career averages (5.5 rushing attempts and 30.5 rushing yards per game). Murray has averaged 37.7 rushing yards per game in his career, and he hit 51.2 per game in 2020.
With a full offseason to get back to his previous form in the open field, Murray should run more in 2024. So, we have established that his rushing production should bounce back. Now, let’s turn to his passing prowess. There should be some regression to the mean here as well. Last year, among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Murray ranked 24th in PFF passing grade and 35th in adjusted completion rate (per PFF). In 2021-2022, among all quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, Murray ranked 15th in PFF passing grade and 13th in adjusted completion rate. Add in Marvin Harrison Jr. as well, and Murray’s needle is pointing up for 2024. Buy in. Add him to your best ball draft targets cheat sheet.
Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS) | ADP: QB14, 115.2 overall
This ADP for Daniels is insane to me. We see rookies lag in ADP, but this is crazy sauce. If Daniels had been some immobile pocket passer, maybe I would have understood it, but he’s not. Making a bet on Daniels is simply buying into his legs and the rushing production at the NFL level translating. When breaking down best ball draft targets, this is the kind of value we’re looking for.
We know the wickedly high floor and ceiling that rushing can offer a quarterback in fantasy. Well, Daniels should have that after rushing for 1,134 yards in his final season at LSU. At the height of Kyler Murray’s powers under Kliff Kingsbury (2021), he ranked fifth in deep ball rate (per PFF). It’s not hard to see Kingsbury revisiting this style of offense with Daniels, who last season led all collegiate passers in deep PFF passing grade and deep adjusted completion rate (per PFF). If Daniels plays the entire season as the starter for Washington, he’s easily a top-12 fantasy quarterback.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon (RB – HOU) | ADP: RB15, 55.8 overall
Last year, in Weeks 9-18, the Texans leaned on Devin Singletary as their bellcow. During that stretch, he ranked 10th among running backs in snap rate (69.4%), fourth in rushing share (67.6%), and eighth in route share (49.3%) as he averaged 19 touches per game. Do we think Mixon can’t equal, if not eclipse, these numbers in 2024? Gobbling up volume has been one of Mixon’s superpowers.
Last year, he was eighth in snap share (69.7%) and third in rushing share (67.1%). Add in that he will be running behind a stellar offensive line, and he should easily best his ADP. Last season in Weeks 9-18, Houston ranked 12th-best in adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Mixon has top-five upside this season.
Zamir White (RB, LVR) | ADP: RB21 80.8 overall
White emerged from the NFL Draft unscathed. The Raiders displayed another vote of confidence in White’s ability to carry the mail. They let Josh Jacobs walk in free agency and doubled down on their bet by only adding Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube (sixth round of the NFL Draft) to the depth chart. Last year, during his run as the starter, he averaged 23.3 touches and 114.4 total yards per game as the RB12 in fantasy points per game. He played at least 70% of the snaps in three of those four games as the team’s workhorse.
He’s set to reprise that role in 2024. His per-touch efficiency was also strong. As the starter (among 41 qualifying backs per Fantasy Points Data), he ranked 13th in explosive run rate, sixth in yards after contact per attempt, and 17th in success rate. If White can hold up to the workload, he’s a strong bet to eclipse 300 touches this season.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS) | ADP: RB31, 98.8 overall
Robinson’s overall stat lines don’t portray how good he was last season. Robinson was the RB14 in fantasy points per opportunity and the RB22 in fantasy points per game. He also stood out in efficiency categories, ranking 22nd in explosive run rate and 13th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data).
In the 12 games in which he played at least 40% of the snaps, Robinson averaged 15.5 touches and 77.9 total yards per game. He quietly displayed a three-down skillset last season, proving that he can play on passing downs, ranking fifth in yards per route run and 12th in PFF’s pass-blocking grade (minimum 20 targets and 50 pass-blocking snaps). Robinson will have to fight Austin Ekeler for passing down snaps and red zone work, but he should own the early downs.
With Daniels in Washington, they should easily field an efficient rushing offense, which will help Robinson. Robinson just has to sew up the red zone work because the rushing attempts will be there. In 2020, under Kliff Kingsbury, Kenyan Drake ranked fourth in red zone rushing attempts. In the next season, James Conner was eighth in red zone rushing attempts. Robinson Jr. is a smash pick at his ADP, and he’s one of my favorite best ball draft targets right now.
Jaleel McLaughlin (RB – DEN): | ADP: RB55, 178.3 overall
Fully expect me to be above consensus regarding McLaughlin this season. Last year, he was electric with every touch he earned. Among all running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts or 20 targets, McLaughlin ranked 14th in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, fourth in yards after contact per attempt, and fourth in yards per route run. Denver made it a point to get him involved in the passing game when he was on the field, as he also ranked first in targets per route run.
McLaughlin could easily earn more opportunities this season, as Samaje Perine wasn’t amazing last season, and Javonte Williams looked like a shadow of his former self. If McLaughlin earns Sean Payton’s trust, he could vault into RB2 production if everything breaks right.
Wide Receivers
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) | ADP: WR25, 41.4 overall
Flowers’ rookie season will be seen as a disappointment by some, but there’s plenty to like here. Expect Flowers to take another step in his sophomore season. Overall, last year, Flowers was the WR31 in fantasy, ranking 19th in Target share, 45th in yards per route run, and 24th in first-read share.
Flowers took another step down the stretch, which speaks to his growth during the season. After Week 11, among 77 qualifying receivers, he was 35th in yards per route run, 18th in fantasy points per route run, and 11th in first read share as Baltimore leaned on their talented young receiver more. With Odell Beckham Jr. gone, I expect the Ravens’ passing attack to flow through Flowers and Mark Andrews in 2024.
Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) | ADP: WR31, 54.8 overall
With Calvin Ridley gone, Kirk should compete with Evan Engram for Jacksonville’s weekly target lead. Last season, Kirk opened Week 1 as a part-time player (three targets, 60% snap rate), but Jacksonville quickly remedied that. In Weeks 2-12, when he was healthy, Kirk was the WR19 in fantasy, ranking 23rd in Target share and 20th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Kirk should have plenty of room underneath to operate with Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis stretching the field. Kirk’s current ADP is easy money to take advantage of while it lasts. Add him to your best ball draft targets list, too.
George Pickens (WR – PIT) | ADP: WR28, 48.9 overall
Pickens’ ADP will correct after Diontae Johnson‘s departure, but it hasn’t gotten close to the high point yet, as he is still viewed as a WR3. We have already seen what a post-Diontae Johnson world looks like for Pickens last season. In Weeks 2-5, among 79 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 10th in Target share (27.1%), first in air-yard share (50.1%), eighth in yards per route run (3.0), and was the WR16 in fantasy points per game. Pickens’ floor is somewhere in the WR3 range for 2024, but he can easily eclipse that.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride (TE, ARI) | ADP: TE3 43.7 overall
My favorite stack in best ball right now. The Murray to-McBride connection will be electric again this season. It’s simple. McBride is too damn cheap. In previous seasons, a tight end with McBride’s profile would be selected in the first or second round of drafts, but that isn’t the case this year. McBride could easily be the TE1 overall this season. Last year in Weeks 8-18, among tight ends, McBride ranked first in weighted opportunity and Target share, fourth in yards per route run, and fourth in red zone targets (per Fantasy Points Data). If you’re looking to stack Murray with Harrison Jr. (WR9, 13.2 overall), you’ll have to pay through the nose for it, but best ball zealots are leaving McBride as a screaming value.
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