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MLB DFS Picks & Player Prop Bets: Sunday (6/16)

MLB DFS Picks & Player Prop Bets: Sunday (6/16)

Finding four pitchers we wanted to recommend yesterday was difficult, but this slate is even more challenging. We actually have two top-notch aces and two lower-end options in wonderful spots. Mixing and matching those four should be the best approach, but it’s going to be a volatile slate to dissect. We do have some great pitchers that we’re not writing up, but many of them have challenging matchups!

With that in mind, let’s dive into this Sunday slate! Here are my top MLB picks and player prop bet predictions for Sunday’s games.

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Sunday’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs. KC $10,600 $10,800 Low Low
Dylan Cease (SD) at NYM $10,300 $10,200 Low Medium
Chris Paddack (MIN) vs. OAK $8,100 $8,600 Medium Medium
Mitchell Parker (WAS) vs. MIA $8,200 $8,300 Medium Medium

Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs. KC
We talked about how good the Royals have been recently, but this is a matchup in which some regression could hit them like a rock. They’re not projected to reach four runs in this game, and it’s no surprise since Glasnow has been so dominant. The righty has a 3.24 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 12.1 K/9 rate, scoring at least 39 FanDuel points in 10 of 14 starts. That’s why the Cy Young candidate is a -280 favorite!

Dylan Cease (SD) at NYM
Cease has been inconsistent throughout his career, but he’s having a sensational season in San Diego. The righty has a 3.36 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 11.0 K/9 rate. That strikeout stuff has led to Cease scoring at least 31 FD points in 10 of his 14 starts. That should be easy to duplicate against NY in Citi Field, with the Mets ranked 16th in runs scored, while Citi Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the sport.

Chris Paddack (MIN) vs. OAK
Let’s get into the risky options with Paddack. The righty has been stellar outside of three ugly showings against the Yankees and Orioles, but most pitchers struggle with those stingy offenses. If you remove those three stinkers, Paddack has a 2.68 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He’s also coming off a 47-point gem against Colorado in his most recent outing, and Oakland isn’t far off from them. The A’s rank is 28th or 29th in runs scored, OBP, K rate, and xwOBA, with Paddack entering this matchup as a -200 favorite.

Mitchell Parker (WAS) vs. MIA
Parker has quietly had a fantastic season in Washington, maintaining a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He’s also allowed three or fewer runs in every start this year and has one of the best matchups. Miami ranks 29th in OBP, runs scored, and wOBA, with Parker providing a 2.45 ERA and 0.78 WHIP at home this season.

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MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks

Houston Astros (vs. Kenta Maeda)

Maeda has been a quality pitcher throughout his career, but injuries have derailed his season. The veteran has allowed at least five runs in four starts, posting a 5.89 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. That’s terrible news since Houston is starting to get hot, ranked seventh in OBP.

San Francisco Giants (vs. Jose Suarez)

I genuinely believe Suarez is among the worst pitchers I’ve ever seen. The lefty has thrown nearly 70 innings since the start of last season, totaling a 7.68 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. San Fran is far from a scary lineup, but they have plenty of bats to get to a gas can like Suarez.

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MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs

OF Christian Yelich (MIL) $5,700 $3,900
DH Yordan Alvarez (HOU) $5,400 $3,900
OF Julio Rodriguez (SEA) $5,000 $3,200
OF Luis Robert (CWS) $4,900 $3,500
  • Yelich hasn’t gotten much consideration for NL MVP but he should be in consideration. The Brewers outfielder has a .402 OBP and .912 OPS this season. He’s also thrown in 12 steals to the equation and has always posted much better splits against right-handers. Frankie Montas is far from a fearful righty, posting a 5.21 ERA and 1.53 WHIP if you take out his one Rockies outlier.
  • When stacking the Stros, Alvarez has to be the first player to be considered. This stud has never posted an OPS below .800, generating a .387 career OBP and .966 OPS. That’s six years of dominance, and the DH is starting to get hot. He’s got a .469 OBP and 1.376 OPS across his last 13 fixtures!
  • J-Rod got off to a slow start this season, but that’s happened every year since his call-up. Like every other season, Rodriguez is rolling now, registering a .362 OBP and .849 OPS across his last 16 games. He’s also one of the league leaders with 16 steals and is one of the only players who can hit 20 bombs and steal 20 bags from here on out. Some of those are possible against Dane Dunning, donning a 4.80 ERA.
  • Lu-Bob hasn’t been hitting for average, but he’s got the power stroke going. After connecting on 38 dingers and 20 steals last season, Robert has seven homers through just 16 games this year! We love that since he has the platoon advantage against Jordan Montgomery, maintaining a 6.58 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Not to mention, Robert has a .381 OBP and .923 OPS against lefties since 2021!

MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts

3B Matt Chapman (SF) $4,900 $3,000
SS Carlos Correa (MIN) $4,400 $3,400
OF Josh Lowe (TB) $3,900 $2,600
3B Nolan Arenado (STL) $3,800 $2,700
  • Stacking a team like San Fran isn’t easy, but Chapman is the easy option. He’s been their hottest hitter recently, providing a .410 OBP and .934 OPS across his last 22 games. That’s terrifying when you consider his splits, with Chapman collecting a .423 OBP and 1.026 OPS against left-handers this year!
  • Correa has been one of the most consistent shortstops throughout his career, and he’s currently having his best week since being called up. The former All-Star has a .404 AVG and 1.017 OPS across his last 13 outings, hitting 14-of-22 in his last five games! That’s an unbelievable stretch, and we love that he has the platoon advantage against a lefty. Correa has a .366 OBP and .856 OPS against southpaws since 2021!
  • Lowe has been missing most of the season due to injuries, but this price has gotten to a point we can’t overlook. We’re talking about Tampa’s best player from last season, who accumulated 20 homers and 32 steals. We expect him to get close to that soon, especially since he had an .854 OPS against righties last year. He’s facing a rookie righty here, with Hurston Waldrep allowing seven runs in his debut!
  • There’s no doubt that Arenado has been terrible, but this price has dropped too far. The All-Star has a .820 OPS across his last 14 outings and will inevitably get back to the .275 AVG and 25-30 homers we’ve become accustomed to. We love Arenado’s BvP numbers against Taillon, too, tallying a .500 AVG and 1.063 OPS in 17 at-bats against him.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Jesus Luzardo: 4.5 Strikeouts – Higher

Luzardo’s strikeout stuff has been lacking this season, but facing a 24th-ranked Nats offense could get him back on track. He has cleared this total in three straight starts against Washington, generating a 26 percent career K rate.

Willi Castro: 0.5 Total Bases – Higher

This is a volume play. We’re assuming that Minnesota will score at least four runs, which means Castro could get five at-bats as the Twins leadoff hitter. He’s had a hit in four of his last five fixtures and doesn’t need to do much to clear this.

Yordan Alvarez: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher

We already talked about how hot Yordan is right now, and all he needs is one extra-base hit to clear this prop.

MLB Player Prop Bet Picks

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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