Our host welcomed a guest analyst to break down Derek Carty’s Bat X projections, widely regarded as one of the most accurate fantasy baseball rest-of-season systems in recent years, and pick apart which names in the top 30 hitters and pitchers actually deserve their ranking. Here’s the full breakdown.
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Fantasy Baseball Rest-of-Season Rankings
The Value of Fantasy Baseball Projections
Before diving into names, both analysts agreed on how projections should actually be used. They’re most valuable as an offseason starting point, since they limit recency bias by baking in aging curves, regression, and park factors over a multi-year sample. The most important adjustment any user has to make manually is playing time, since a projection system can only reflect the games and plate appearances it assumes a player will get. During the season, projections remain useful for weekly lineup and matchup decisions, but they can lag behind fresh injury news or approach changes that haven’t fully shown up in the underlying data yet.
Top 30 Hitters
Still projected as the most valuable hitter the rest of the season, but one specific number looks off: the projection system has him down for six more stolen bases, which one analyst believes is unrealistic given recent knee soreness and the team’s total lack of incentive to run him. A more realistic expectation is one to three steals the rest of the way. That said, his raw power output alone could still make him a top overall asset even with the steals shortfall, since a stretch of 15 more home runs wouldn’t be surprising even in a diminished role on the bases.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF – CHC)
Ranked seventh among rest-of-season hitters, a name that wouldn’t have shown up anywhere near this range in the preseason. He’s followed up a 30-30 season with an even better one, already at 26 home runs and 28 steals at the time of recording. The real driver is a dramatic plate discipline improvement, with his walk rate climbing from 4.5% to 12% and his chase rate dropping from 41% to 33%, while his power numbers have held steady or improved. His on-base percentage is up 100 points from last year, and both analysts believe this represents a real, sustainable step forward rather than a fluke, with one going as far as picking him over Shohei Ohtani for MVP if the pace continues.
Ranked 11th among rest-of-season hitters, backed by a broadly improved season: 24 home runs, 11 steals, a .344 on-base percentage, and real gains in exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. One analyst is fully bought in going forward. The guest analyst disagrees and would sell high right now, pointing to a rough last two weeks, a .196 average over that stretch and a strikeout rate that’s jumped from 17% to 26%, attributing it to pitchers adjusting to him now that he’s an established threat. Notably, every other major projection system rates his expected performance several points lower than the Bat X does, suggesting the system driving this ranking may be a bit of an outlier on just how good a hitter he really is right now.
Revisited specifically on the stolen base question, since a hamstring injury had limited his ceiling for part of the season. Seven steals over the last two and a half weeks suggest the hamstring is fully healed, and one analyst would take the over on the projection system’s forecast of 10 or more steals the rest of the way, expecting something closer to 12 or 13. His broader offensive profile has taken a real step forward too, with hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity all up significantly, alongside a lower chase rate and better contact skills. One analyst who has faded him in past seasons is now fully bought in heading into next year’s drafts.
Currently dealing with an oblique injury officially labeled mild, but realistically not expected back until mid-September. He’s still ranked 16th among rest-of-season hitters, reflecting the underlying talent, but the actual return timeline significantly limits his practical impact this year.
Discussed alongside the Elly De La Cruz conversation given a real recent concern: a hamate bone surgery in June, an injury that has historically hampered hitters for a long stretch after return. Since coming back, he has zero home runs and a 29 wRC+, with lingering hand soreness still being managed. The rest-of-season projection calls for eight more home runs, and one analyst strongly takes the under on that number. Looking ahead to next year, both analysts believe his days as a true first-round pick may be ending given a batted-ball profile that’s always relied more on contact than raw power, with his age and recent decline pointing toward a more realistic early-to-mid second-round value, still bolstered somewhat by third base position scarcity.
Ranked 27th among rest-of-season hitters despite a rough overall season, currently sitting at a 95 wRC+, his worst mark since 2019. His season has been bizarre on a month-to-month basis, swinging wildly between well above and well below league average, including one especially hot stretch that’s propped up otherwise modest overall numbers. Both analysts are skeptical of a true top-25 rest-of-season ranking, though a real recent adjustment to how he handles breaking balls supports expecting a moderate rebound, something closer to a .250 average with modest power, rather than either his brutal early-season form or his best recent stretch.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR)
Dealing with a genuine power outage, having not hit a home run in his own home ballpark in close to a full calendar year. His batted-ball profile explains a lot of it: an extreme ground-ball rate and one of the lowest average launch angles in baseball. There’s been public questioning of his durability and work ethic, but both analysts largely reject that read, pointing to his elite defensive metrics and hustle as evidence against a pure effort explanation, favoring a combination of a real back injury and a swing mechanics issue instead. The underlying talent remains obvious given his track record, and both analysts believe an offseason swing reset focused on raising his attack angle could unlock the power again.
Top 30 Pitchers
Ranked first among rest-of-season starting pitchers, narrowly ahead of Tarik Skubal. One analyst, a fan of Skubal’s team, doesn’t believe Skubal is fully back to 100% yet following a recent elbow procedure, estimating him at roughly 85% of his peak self currently, enough to still rank him among the game’s best but not enough to hold off Misiorowski for the top spot. A real workload concern is flagged specifically for Misiorowski: the projection system expects roughly 50 more innings the rest of the season, but his recent starts have mostly fallen short of five innings, and his team is well positioned in the standings with little incentive to push him deep into games down the stretch. In head-to-head and playoff-format leagues specifically, this makes him a real sell-high candidate, while in true rotisserie formats he’s already banked enough value to simply hold.
Ranked fourth among rest-of-season starting pitchers, which one analyst finds surprising given a rough recent stretch, including a 4.83 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over his last 13 starts, largely driven by an uptick in home runs allowed. The other analyst would place him a bit further back in a top-10 rather than as high as fourth, but isn’t bothered by a top-10 slot overall given his elite home ballpark, his legitimate Hall of Fame-caliber track record, and a genuinely durable season by his own recent standards.
Ranked 12th among rest-of-season starting pitchers, which both analysts view as too aggressive. Over his last 11 starts, he’s posted a 4.93 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, and the underlying numbers support real decline rather than just bad luck, including a notably lower stuff grade and reduced velocity across his entire pitch arsenal compared to his peak years. He’s already approaching his innings totals from recent seasons, suggesting a natural workload ceiling for the rest of the year, and his team isn’t fighting for anything meaningful down the stretch. Given his age and this trend, both analysts are cooling on him as a trusted rest-of-season starting pitcher one.
Recently recorded five consecutive starts with double-digit strikeouts and one or zero walks, one of only a handful of pitchers in MLB history to do so. His ERA is actually higher than last year, but both analysts are unconcerned given a dramatic underlying skill jump, including a strikeout-to-walk rate that’s roughly doubled and career-high grades across nearly every advanced metric tracked. Both agree he should be ranked ahead of Paul Skenes in rest-of-season value right now and view him as a legitimate top-20 to top-25 starting pitcher heading into next season.
Both analysts agree he doesn’t belong in the top five starting pitchers rest of season right now, despite no formal injury being reported. His fastball velocity is down, his changeup has been less effective, and his command has slipped, leading to more hard contact and walks. Over his last 15 starts specifically, he’s posted a 5.20 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, with some bad luck mixed in but real underlying decline too. Both analysts speculate a hidden injury, possibly in the shoulder, could be a factor, and both note a heavy spring workload tied to international competition as a plausible contributing cause of fatigue.
Flagged as a pitcher the rest-of-season projections appear to be underrating. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since early April, and his most recent outing featured six shutout innings with nine strikeouts and no walks. Both analysts agree he should be considered a clear top-five starting pitcher in true talent right now.
Flagged as a strong buy on his current rest-of-season ranking near the top 15. His full-season numbers, including a 26.5% strikeout rate and a 3.19 SIERA, represent genuinely excellent, sustained performance that one analyst believes remains underappreciated by the broader fantasy community. Both agree his rate-stat quality alone makes him a legitimate value target regardless of ongoing questions about his total innings volume.
Both analysts are skeptical of his current top-10 rest-of-season ranking given he’s barely pitched this year and is only now returning from a rehab assignment, with his final tune-up outing going poorly. His recent pitch counts suggest a workload closer to four or five innings per start once activated, and his team, already a lock for the postseason, has no real incentive to push his usage during the final stretch of the regular season. Both analysts agree the projected ERA and WHIP for him look unrealistic given his career-long track record of inconsistency, and neither views him as a true top-10, or even clearly top-20, rest-of-season starting pitcher.
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