The fantasy football playoffs are rapidly approaching. Teams are separating in the standings, and one benefit of a fast start to the season is the ability to make forward-thinking moves instead of clawing tooth and nail for every win to sneak into the playoffs. It’s an excellent time for favorably positioned teams to look at recent usage trends and playoff schedules to make potentially championship-winning decisions. The following are three forward-thinking moves I suggest gamers consider making.
Fantasy Football Playoff Lookahead Moves
Joe Mixon has exceeded even the most optimistic preseason expectations for him. The veteran running back is the RB3 in standard points per game (19.1), the RB3 in half-point per reception (half PPR) points per game (20.2) and the RB3 in PPR points per game (21.4). According to Pro Football Reference, Mixon has averaged 101.5 rushing yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry with six rushing touchdowns, 2.3 receptions per game, 19.2 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown in six games this season.
The 28-year-old running back has had over 100 rushing yards in four consecutive games and five of six this year. Mixon’s underlying data is rock-solid, too. Per the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 56 running backs with at least 40 rush attempts this year, Mixon is 14th in yards per carry (4.83), tied for 16th in yards before contact per attempt (2.13), tied for 16th in yards after contact per attempt (2.71), tied for 19th in explosive run percentage (5.6%), 29th in stuff percentage (48.4%), tied for 32nd in missed tackles force per attempt (0.14), 35th in zone success rate (43.0%) and 34th in man/gap success rate (45.8%).
Mixon’s advanced stats are decent, but they’re not world-beater marks. Of course, his volume (21.0 rush attempts per game) is superb. Gamers would be foolish to give him away. However, Mixon should be able to fetch a nifty haul, especially for teams that need immediate production.
Houston’s backfield has a three-star fantasy strength of schedule. Unfortunately, their best matchups are before their Week 14 bye and in Week 15 against the Dolphins. Their fantasy semi-final and championship game matchups are brutal.
The Texans are on the road against the Chiefs in Week 16 and at home against the Ravens in Week 17. Kansas City has allowed the fewest half-PPR points per game (12.5) to running backs, and Baltimore has allowed the seventh-fewest (17.7). Furthermore, the Texans will likely be underdogs in both matchups, enhancing the probability of a negative game script for Mixon. Again, don’t give Mixon away, but consider moving him for fair value or selling high in anticipation of his dreadful Week 16 and Week 17 matchups.
The Chargers had their bye in Week 5, and they’ve come out slinging since then. According to RotoViz’s pace app, through Week 5, Los Angeles was tied for the lowest situation-neutral pass rate (46%). Since Week 6, they’ve had the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%). Additionally, they’ve tied for the seventh-most situation-neutral plays per 60 minutes (64) since their bye.
LA’s offensive environment is outstanding for Ladd McConkey. He’s played quite well since the bye, too. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in McConkey’s last four games, he’s had team highs in route participation (80.5%), air-yard share (27.3%), target share (20.5%), receptions (20), receiving yards (270) and first-read percentage (25.0%). In addition, among 102 wideouts with at least 50 routes since Week 6, McConkey’s tied for 35th in half PPR expected fantasy points per route run (0.42) and 23rd in half PPR expected fantasy points per game (13.3).
McConkey’s elephant in the room is his matchup against the Broncos in Week 16. Denver has allowed the seventh-fewest half PPR points per game (22.1) to wideouts. However, McConkey had eight targets, four receptions and 43 receiving yards against the Broncos in Denver in Week 4. So, he could overcome the matchup and perform as a flex. More importantly, McConkey will face the Buccaneers in Week 15 and the Patriots in Week 17, and Tampa Bay is tied for the sixth-most half PPR points per game (30.1) allowed to wide receivers, while New England is tied for the 13th-most half PPR points per game (27.6) allowed to wideouts this season. McConkey’s offensive environment and production are trending in the right direction, and his fantasy playoff schedule is more good than bad.
Trey Benson had a slow start to the season. However, he’s done better lately, albeit on a small sample. Among 65 running backs with at least 20 rush attempts since Week 4, Benson is 13th in yards per carry (5.35), tied for 10th in explosive run percentage (8.7%), sixth in stuff percentage (39.1%), tied for 39th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.13), tied for 24th in zone success rate (50.0%) and tied for 25th in man/gap success rate (52.9%).
Sadly, the sample was only 23 rush attempts, resulting in 123 yards and one touchdown. Additionally, Emari Demercado could play passing downs and the two-minute drill if James Conner gets hurt. Still, Benson’s an exciting, high-upside handcuff with a mouthwatering schedule at the end of the year.
From Week 14 through Week 17, the Cardinals will play the Seahawks, Patriots, Panthers and Rams. They’ve allowed the 10th-most (22.3), fifth-most (24.4), most (29.3) and 15th-most (20.8) half PPR points per game to running backs. If Conner were hurt, Benson would be a dreamy starter in any of those matchups. He’s a must-roster player for gamers with Conner and a nifty bench stash even for gamers without Conner.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
