Death, Taxes and Justin Tucker coming through with clutch kicks for the Ravens — those three things are three certainties that fantasy football managers and Baltimore fans have come to expect over the past decade.
While the first two are certainties to continue, including it appears that Derrick Henry will play until he is 40, the latter is no longer a certainty. Head coach John Harbaugh has seen it all over his tenure with the team and has fielded a wide range of questions from the media. Being asked if he should move on from Tucker was never one he expected to hear.
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As a fantasy manager, you should have likely moved on from Tucker weeks ago. But it is tough moving on from a legend, especially when predicting kicker performance is easier said than done.
Counting extra points, Tucker now has 10 missed kicks on the season. Five kicks over 50 yards, three under 50 and two extra points. On a point-per-game basis, he ranks outside the top 20 for kickers with at least five games. He has just one double-digit game dating back over a month.
It is difficult watching a legend get the yips, but that is what we are witnessing with Tucker.
Week 14 Kicker Rankings & Start/Sit Advice
Week 13 Strong Performances From Widely-Available Kickers
Chad Ryland (K – ARI) @ MIN: 1% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
Chad Ryland posted a season-best 16 fantasy points on Sunday against the Vikings in what started as a field goal kicking competition before both teams finally got going offensively. With a bye-nado in Week 14 for some teams, Ryland could be a decent play at home against the Seahawks.
Matthew Wright (K – KC) vs. Las Vegas: 5% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
Las Vegas has given up the most points to opposing kickers, including nine weeks of 10+ fantasy points. Matthew Wright was the latest beneficiary of this fact, with 12 fantasy points on 4-of-5 kicking.
Week 13 Dud Performances From Heavily-Owned Kickers
Jason Sanders (K – MIA) vs. Green Bay: 70% roster percentage on Yahoo
I was significantly down on all Dolphins this week against the Packers, especially Jason Sanders in what looked to be a negative game script. That proved to be correct, as Sanders posted just three fantasy points.
Week 14 Kicker Rankings
Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Over/Under | Spread | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
1 | 2 | Chris Boswell | PIT | vs. CLE | 40.5 | -6 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 44F, Rain, 12 MPH Wind |
2 | 11 | Jake Moody | SF | vs. CHI | 44.5 | -6.5 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 6.5 | 63F, Light Wind |
3 | 5 | Jake Elliott | PHI | vs. CAR | 44.5 | -13 | 25 | 19 | 4 | 35 | 48F, Slight Chance of Rain |
4 | 13 | Chad Ryland | ARI | vs. SEA | 46.0 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36 | Dome |
5 | 3 | Jake Bates | DET | vs. GB | 51.5 | -5.5 | 20 | 26 | 2 | 42.5 | Dome |
6 | 4 | Tyler Bass | BUF | at LAR | 48.5 | -3.5 | 6 | 29 | 10 | 41.5 | Dome |
7 | 6 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | at KC | 44.5 | 4.5 | 10 | 11 | 24 | 49.5 | 51F, Light Wind |
8 | 1 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | vs. LV | 44.5 | -7.5 | 22 | 29 | 6 | 49.5 | 74F, Slight Chance of Rain |
9 | 12 | Matthew Wright | KC | vs. LAC | 44.5 | -4.5 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 21.5 | 51F, Light Wind |
10 | 14 | Brandon McManus | GB | at DET | 51.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 27.5 | Dome |
11 | 17 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | at MIN | 45.5 | 4.5 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 37.5 | Dome |
12 | 7 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | vs. CIN | 45.5 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 20 | 57 | Dome |
13 | 8 | Cade York | CIN | at DAL | 45.5 | -6 | 32 | 30 | 9 | 65 | Dome |
14 | 9 | Parker Romo | MIN | vs. ATL | 45.5 | -4.5 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 40.5 | Dome |
15 | 10 | Jason Sanders | MIA | vs. NYJ | 44.5 | -6.5 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 54.5 | 76F, 12 MPH Wind |
16 | 15 | Jason Myers | SEA | at ARI | 46.0 | -2 | 7 | 20 | 16 | 41 | Dome |
17 | 16 | Nick Folk | TEN | vs. JAC | 43.0 | -2.5 | 26 | 7 | 29 | 59.5 | 52F, Rain |
18 | 18 | Blake Grupe | NO | at NYG | 39,5 | -3.5 | 11 | 23 | 12 | 42.5 | 44F, Slight chance of rain |
19 | 19 | Joshua Karty | LAR | vs. BUF | 48.5 | 3.5 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 42.5 | Dome |
20 | 20 | Cairo Santos | CHI | at SF | 44.5 | 6.5 | 31 | 29 | 26 | 92.5 | 63F, Light Wind |
21 | 21 | Anders Carlson | NYJ | at MIA | 44.5 | 6.5 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 59.5 | 76F, 12 MPH Wind |
22 | 27 | Graham Gano | NYG | vs. NO | 39.5 | 3.5 | 11 | 0 | 26 | 40.5 | 44F, Slight chance of rain |
23 | 22 | Daniel Carlson | LV | at TB | 44.5 | 7.5 | 13 | 4 | 25 | 49.5 | 74F, Slight Chance of Rain |
24 | 26 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | at PIT | 40.5 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 22 | 68 | 44F, Rain, 12 MPH Wind |
25 | 23 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | at PHI | 44.5 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 30 | 63 | 48F, Slight Chance of Rain |
26 | 25 | Cam Little | JAC | at TEN | 43.0 | 2.5 | 26 | 18 | 28 | 74.5 | 52F, Rain |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 30th in red zone efficiency, giving Justin Tucker an RZ EFF score of 2. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of an opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker fantasy football rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) top 10 who could be excellent in Week 14.
Chad Ryland (K – ARI) vs. Seattle: 1% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
Chad Ryland and the Cardinals play host to the Seahawks in a divisional tilt on Sunday. Ryland posted 15 points this past week against Minnesota and projects to have another solid day with a 36 K Score.
Jake Moody (K – SF) vs. Chicago: 50% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
Jake Moody’s 6.5 K Score is the lowest of the season, as the 49ers host the top red-zone defense in the Chicago Bears. Moody can be erratic at times, but this game appears to be an opportunity for at least three kicks and maybe more.
Week 13 Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Brandon McManus (K – GB) vs. Miami 13% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 14
- My Rank: 3
- Week 13 Finish: T-5
I stayed in the fire with Brandon McManus, and it paid off with 13 fantasy points. He was the better of the two kickers in the matchup with Sanders. Hopefully, Sanders’ managers took my advice to play the home team kicker on Sunday.
Younghoe Koo (K – ATL) vs. L.A. Chargers 50% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 12
- My Rank: 3
- Week 13 Finish: T-18
The K Score predicts kicker opportunities, and it came through again with Younghoe Koo having three field goal chances. Unfortunately, he shanked a short kick that resulted in negative points and a disappointing finish. Had he made that short try, he would have scored 12 points and posted a top-12 finish.
Week 14 Waiver Wire Pickups
- Brandon McManus (K – GB) @ Detroit: 13% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
- Chad Ryland (K – ARI) vs. Seattle: 1% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
- Matthew Wright (K – KC) vs. LAC: 5% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
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