Busts come in all shapes and sizes. Some of them are declining naturally due to age, some had a season-long run of luck and others are no longer in favorable conditions.
Favorable conditions could mean different things, but, primarily, leaving either a great home park or playing in a weaker offense, which cannot act as a crutch for lesser players.
The biggest busts are those that suffer injuries, but I already covered the biggest injury risks for 2025 here. Below are busts to avoid at their current average draft position (ADP).
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Fantasy Baseball Busts
Seth Lugo (SP – KC) | ADP: 148
The Royals scored in 2024 with the acquisition of Seth Lugo. He signed for $15 million annually and has paid off a three-year deal in one season. His 204 innings pitched and a 3.00 ERA are typically reserved for elite prospects or pitchers in Gerrit Cole‘s tax bracket.
Unfortunately, Lugo was fortuitous last season and is headed towards regression. Lugo’s second full season as a starter was arguably worse than his first in 2023 where he posted a 3.57 ERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) fell from 17.2% to 15.7% and his xFIP rose from 3.76 to 3.83.
Lugo pitches in an improving division and half of his games are in the now hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium. Regression may not jump his ERA beyond 4.00. However, with a declining strikeout rate, his numbers may reflect that of a back-end starter rather than a pitcher with a fantasy baseball ADP of around pick 150.
Alexis Diaz (RP – CIN) | ADP: 161
Alexis Diaz’s bust potential was a loud sentiment in the fantasy community last season and should continue into 2025. The young reliever is mediocre. While he may have 75 career saves through three seasons and an ERA just below 3.00 (2.93), Diaz’s peripheral stats are horrible.
Diaz is a flyball pitcher whose home games are played in the league’s best park for home runs. He has only surrendered 15 in his career. With a run of bad luck, however, that number may double this season alone. His xFIP jumped from a pedestrian 4.20 in 2023 to an egregious 5.06 last season. His SIERA was more kind as it only jumped from 3.76 to 4.48.
Worst of all, Diaz fills the bases with walks and does not suffer the repercussions. His walk rate is between 12.6% and 12.9% every season of his career while his strikeout rate declines. Unless Diaz altered his repertoire or found his velocity from 2023, expect a rough season that should result in a demotion.
Lane Thomas (OF – CLE) | ADP: 177
Lane Thomas was a playoff stud for the Guardians as he hit two home runs in 10 games and walked nearly as much as he struck out. Nevertheless, he struggled during the regular season after his trade from Washington. The speedy outfielder is talented but unlikely to ever repeat his stellar 2023 season.
Thomas slashed .209/.267/.390 in 53 games with Cleveland after slashing .253/.331/.407 with Washington in 77 games. The impending free agent went from fantasy stud to dud, especially on the basepaths, as he stole 28 bases with the Nationals but just four with the Guardians.
Statcast park factors rank Nationals Park as the eighth-most hitter-friendly in baseball while Progressive Field ranks sixth-worst. This is likely why Thomas struggled after the move and why his 2023 season is an aberration if he sticks in Cleveland.
Thomas’ splits that year were absurd as he posted a .887 OPS at home and just .689 on the road. Unless the Guardians trade him back to Washington or somewhere like Colorado, avoid Thomas in drafts.
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