Starting pitchers are throwing fewer innings, making elite ones harder to find. Since 2021, FanGraphs’ calculator shows pitchers have produced 56 seasons of $20 or greater value, compared to 151 such seasons by hitters. In a 12-team fantasy baseball draft, the average team has two or three $20 hitters but just one $20 pitcher.
This scarcity makes the Pocket Aces draft strategy appealing for 2026 fantasy baseball leagues. Pocket Aces involves drafting top starting pitchers early for an edge in pitching categories. There are enough hitters available later in the draft to remain competitive on offense.
The term Pocket Aces originates from Texas hold’em poker. In this game, the dealer gives each player two cards that no other player can use. The best two cards you can get in this scenario are aces, hence Pocket Aces. A player with pocket aces has the best chance of winning the hand. While this hand is not unbeatable by any means, it does give the player a decided edge.
The same can apply to fantasy baseball as well. Utilizing a Pocket Aces strategy will not guarantee victory. But when used correctly alongside judicious drafting of hitters, it can boost your odds of winning.
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Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Pocket Aces
When utilizing the Pocket Aces strategy, identify your early pitching targets. Aim for two top-five/top-10 starting pitchers. After finding your targets, reference their average draft position (ADP). Use ADP as a guideline, not a strict rule.
This helps determine when to select a player. Below are the starting pitchers most often drafted in the first four rounds of 12-team leagues, based on six weeks of National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) ADP data:
- Shohei Ohtani (1.20)
- Tarik Skubal (7.34)
- Paul Skenes (11.57)
- Garrett Crochet (12.85)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (28.19)
- Cristopher Sanchez (30.85)
- Logan Gilbert (39.94)
- Bryan Woo (40.28)
- Hunter Brown (41.04)
- Chris Sale (45.10)
What is interesting about this group is the clear gap in ADP between Garrett Crochet and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — there are no pitchers with an ADP between them, so most drafters spend almost all of the second round choosing hitters.
This gap shapes common pitcher-drafting strategies, as it may encourage reaching for Crochet at the round one/round two turn or waiting until round three for Yamamoto. For example, if you have the second pick, you could draft Aaron Judge in the first round, then Yamamoto and Cristopher Sanchez with your second and third picks, pairing an elite hitter with two top arms.
Six starting pitchers have ADPs in the fifth or sixth round of 12-team leagues: Cole Ragans (55.43), Max Fried (55.57), Jacob deGrom (56.47), Hunter Greene (59.79), Logan Webb (61.50) and Freddy Peralta (63.59). Pocket Aces doesn’t mean ignoring pitching value later. Any of these pitchers could deliver a top-10 season, as Peralta did last year. If you favor one, adjust your strategy accordingly.
Pocket Aces Draft Strategy Mock Draft
To test out the Pocket Aces draft strategy in 2026, I participated in a fantasy baseball mock draft over the weekend. I created a 12-team league with 13 starting hitters and nine starting pitchers. I did not designate starting spots between pitchers and relief pitchers.
For the hitters, I assigned one starting spot to each infield position, as well as one corner infield and one middle infield position. I gave each team five starting outfielders and one utility spot. I randomly assigned my own draft spot. As luck would have it, I picked dead last.
Rounds 1 & 2 – Garrett Crochet (SP – BOS), Fernando Tatis Jr. (OF – SD)
Skubal and Skenes were predictably gone by this point in the draft. I landed Garrett Crochet as my ace, who was sixth overall in fantasy dollar value last year, trailing only Skubal among pitchers. I’m very happy with the value. I could have picked Yamamoto or Sanchez next but didn’t love their value. Coincidentally, the team that drafted Skubal at eighth also took Sanchez at 2.05, opting for the traditional Pocket Aces strategy. If I’d picked in the middle of the draft, I might have done the same.
Rounds 3 & 4 – Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA), Matt Olson (1B – ATL)
Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo and Hunter Brown were all available. If you strongly prefer one, that is fine. The draft software suggested Brown, but I prefer Gilbert. He led all MLB pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings among 105 pitchers with at least 120 innings last season. His ERA indicators were all lower than his actual ERA, unlike Woo’s or Brown’s.
Rounds 5 & 6 – Josh Naylor (1B, DH – SEA), Jackson Merrill (OF – SD)
If you use a Pocket Aces strategy, this would seem to be the projected cutoff point for the aces. Brown and Woo went 4.02 and 4.03, respectively. After that, a total of eight other pitchers (including five starters) went in rounds four and five.
That does not leave many likely aces available. The most intriguing pitchers to me that were available here were George Kirby, Jesus Luzardo and Kyle Bradish. I think any of them could be fine SP2 candidates this season.
Rounds 7 & 8 – Bo Bichette (SS – NYM), Seiya Suzuki (OF, DH – CHC)
I usually draft more than two pitchers in the first eight rounds, but with the Pocket Aces strategy, I wanted to avoid overloading on pitching at the expense of my hitters. I believe I achieved a good balance with my selections.
You could argue for Hitter A over Hitter B (Bo Bichette over Jeremy Pena; Seiya Suzuki over Tyler Soderstrom), but at this stage of the draft, I’m happy with the squad’s overall foundation.
Rounds 9 & 10 – Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR), Trevor Story (SS – BOS)
At this point in the draft, the balancing act truly begins. I went pitching-heavy early with Crochet and Gilbert as my Pocket Aces. Now I feel like I need to bolster my rotation a bit. I do so with a stabilizer like Kevin Gausman.
Gausman was the overall SP22 in terms of overall roto value last season. There are plenty of upside options in this range as well — Spencer Strider, Chase Burns and Zack Wheeler.
Rounds 11 & 12 – Emmet Sheehan (SP – LAD), Luis Robert Jr. (OF – NYM)
There was another very interesting set of starting pitchers available at this stage of the draft. In addition to Emet Sheehan, Brandon Woodruff, Trevor Rogers, Nathan Eovaldi and Cam Schlittler were appealing.
Depending on your needs and preferences, you could make the case for any of these pitchers as your SP4. I considered double-tapping starting pitchers here, but ultimately selected Luis Robert Jr. There are some other solid outfielders available in this range as well — Jakob Marsee, Jo Adell and Taylor Ward.
Rounds 13 & 14 – Sandy Alcantara (SP – MIA), Jacob Wilson (SS – ATH)
Last year, several of my teams were derailed in part by Sandy Alcantara. If you feel the same way or are simply uninterested, I understand. Still, over his final eight starts, Alcantara went 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 52 strikeouts.
Even if he doesn’t recapture his 2022 Cy Young form, Alcantara offers solid value here. Ranger Suarez and MacKenzie Gore were also available, if you prefer them.
Rounds 15 & 16 – Edward Cabrera (SP – CHC), Brenton Doyle (OF – COL)
Last season, 127 pitchers threw at least 100 innings. Edward Cabrera ranked 24th in strikeout rate and was in the top 50 in ERA and WHIP. He’ll pitch for the Cubs in 2026, increasing his win chances after winning eight times in 26 starts for Miami.
If Cabrera doesn’t appeal to you, options like Tatsuya Imai, Jack Flaherty, Matthew Boyd, Shane Bieber and Kris Bubic also went in rounds 16 and 17.
Rounds 17 & 18 – Ryan Walker (RP – SF), Abner Uribe (RP – MIL)
Here’s the thing about mock drafts. They tend not to always accurately reflect the value that high-leverage relievers have in real drafts. In a real draft, there’s no chance I’m waiting until round 17 to take a closer. More often than not, I would have had to grab those pitchers with my previous two picks.
I could also have selected Seranthony Dominguez or Bryan Abreu instead of Abner Uribe here. Starting pitchers available in this range included Shane McClanahan, Gerrit Cole and Spencer Schwellenbach. Ultimately, mock drafts can be a useful exercise, but they rarely capture the urgency and strategy of a real draft.
Rounds 19 & 20 – Luis Garcia (RP – NYM), Gabriel Moreno (C – ARI)
Rounds 21 & 22 – Alec Bohm (1B, 3B – PHI), TJ Friedl (OF – CIN)
This group of draft picks was me trying to find the best options at the positions I was thin at. I had yet to draft a second baseman, third baseman or catcher, so I wanted to secure some players for those positions.
The pitching options in this range are usually a matter of personal preference. Some of the pitchers who were taken in rounds 20-23 included Logan Henderson, Jack Leiter, Roki Sasaki, Shane Smith, Jose Soriano and Grayson Rodriguez.
Rounds 23 & 24 – Sean Manaea (SP, RP – NYM), Mitch Keller (SP – PIT)
If this were a real draft, I likely would have drafted Robert Garcia. That way, I would have a third potential save option. In a 12-team league, I prefer to have three quality relievers. Having said that, I think both Sean Manaea and Mitch Keller could be great values.
Keller has been consistent, if not spectacular, in recent years. The biggest reason for his dip in fantasy value last year was that we won just six games. But with Pittsburgh improving its roster, a return to double-digit wins is very possible for Keller in 2026. Manaea is more of a depth piece but has flashed elite skills across parts of the last two seasons.
Rounds 25 & 26 – Miguel Vargas (1B, 3B – CWS), Colt Keith (1B, 2B, 3B, DH – DET)
I wanted to grab the last of my infield depth here, though there are some intriguing arms in this range. Most notably, Chad Patrick, one of my favorite late-round draft picks. Also available on the pitching front were Jacob Lopez and Andrew Painter.
Rounds 27, 28 & 29 – Brandon Pfaadt (SP – ARI), Carson Benge (OF – NYM) & Luis Severino (SP – ATH)
Truth be told, I probably won’t be drafting Brandon Pfaadt or Luis Severino very often in 2026. There just isn’t much upside for either pitcher, in my opinion. But I wanted some depth, and they are relatively safe options in that regard.
Some of the pitchers who were drafted in the final two rounds included Justin Steele, Robby Snelling and Cade Cavalli. Pitchers who went undrafted include Tyler Mahle, Jeffrey Springs and Max Meyer. If you want to argue I should have drafted any of those players ahead of Severino, I won’t fight you too hard.
Mock Draft Results
Here is the draft for those who want to take a look at how it played out.
FantasyPros’ Draft Wizard gave me an A grade (93/100), the second-best grade in the draft. It said my pitchers ranked third among the league’s 12 teams, while my hitters ranked fourth. That is the type of balance I was looking for, so I am happy with the results. As with any draft strategy, the key to a successful Pocket Aces draft is finding value throughout the proceedings.
The software credited me with finding value in 10 of my 13 draft picks made between rounds 11 and 23. The only three picks in that stretch where I did not get credit for finding value were the two relief pitchers and the catcher I drafted. I would argue otherwise. But in any case, all three of those picks were made to address specific needs within my roster. Therefore, I do not mind that specific feedback.
Ironically, the software thinks I should have drafted Gunnar Henderson instead of Garrett Crochet. Maybe they are less fond of the Pocket Aces draft strategy than I am. It suggested that I could have drafted Ranger Suarez at the round 13/round 14 turn instead of Jacob Wilson, alongside Sandy Alcantara.
I would like to point out, in my own defense, that Crochet and Wilson each have a projected dollar value that is $3 higher than Henderson and Suarez, respectively. But hey, that’s what makes this the best time of the year. Soon enough, we will all be able to see how things play out. In any event, I believe employing a Pocket Aces method while drafting can be a very viable strategy for fantasy baseball managers in 2026.
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