6 Fantasy Baseball Busts to Avoid (2025)

Busts come in all shapes and sizes. Some of them are declining naturally due to age, some had a season-long run of luck and others are no longer in favorable conditions.

Favorable conditions could mean different things, but, primarily, leaving either a great home park or playing in a weaker offense, which cannot act as a crutch for lesser players.

The biggest busts are those that suffer injuries, but I already covered the biggest injury risks for 2025 here. Below are six busts to avoid at their current average draft position (ADP).

Fantasy Baseball Busts

Willy Adames (SS – SF) | ADP: 68

Willy Adames is a former top prospect who found his footing in Milwaukee after a tumultuous start to his career with the Rays. The most notable factor of his time in Tampa was the difficulty he had hitting in Tropicana Field.

Adames noted his difficulty in “seeing the ball” when playing at home, which led to massive splits. Adames was awful at home. In his final full season with the Rays, he posted a 64 wRC+ at home and a 173 wRC+ on the road.

This season, Adames moves from the neutral confines of Miller Park (14th in FanGraphs’ park factor) to Oracle Park (24th). Whether this will impact him significantly like the change from Tropicana to Miller is to be determined.

However, note Adames’ splits since joining the Brewers:

	HOME	AWAY
2022	113 wRC+	104 wRC+
2023	107 wRC+	81 wRC+
2024	125 wRC+	115 wRC+

Every full season in Milwaukee is favorable to Adames’ home splits. Also, the National League West is baseball’s best division this season with some of the league’s best pitchers between every team (aside from the Rockies). Adames will face much tougher competition with a worse home park to hit in. Fade him in drafts unless there is a significant fall.

Luis Castillo (SP – SEA) | ADP: 79

Luis Castillo is an odd case for 2025 as his name has been in trade rumors all offseason. The 32-year-old starting pitcher is still very good but the Mariners may shop him this season. A trade is the worst possible outcome for a pitcher like Castillo, who benefits from the friendly home confines of T-Mobile Park.

Both Statcast park factors and FanGraphs place the Mariners’ home field as the most advantageous for pitching. Claims of Castillo’s past success in a hitter-friendly home field like Great American Ball Park would be valid if not for his incremental decline. Castillo’s velocity was two miles-per-hour lower in 2024 than his peak in 2020 with the Reds.

If the veteran workhorse stays in Seattle, he should be great and return plenty of value on his investment. However, a move to the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park (or anywhere in the American League East) could tank his ERA. Castillo, like Adames, is better left as a soft fade given the risk of new parks.

Randy Arozarena (OF – SEA) | ADP: 122

Randy Arozarena is experiencing the opposite effect of the aforementioned Luis Castillo. Arozarena moved from Tampa Bay to Seattle after a tumultuous start to the season that ended as the worst of his career. While he did post a higher wRC+ (122) in Seattle than in Tampa Bay, Arozarena’s power dropped and his strikeout rate rose from 24.7% to 28.5%.

Arozarena’s boost in Seattle derived from an increased batting average driven by a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) closer to his career average (.318). He is capable of sustaining a higher BABIP given his speed, but, according to Baseball Savant, Arozarena’s sprint speed is declining every season and is far from the 90th percentile he reached in earlier years.

Arozarena only stole four bases in 54 games with the Mariners whereas he stole 16 bags in 100 games with the Rays. Whether that dip sustains remains to be seen but the signs are not pretty when projecting Arozarena for 2025.

Seth Lugo (SP – KC) | ADP: 148

The Royals scored in 2024 with the acquisition of Seth Lugo. He signed for $15 million annually and has paid off a three-year deal in one season. His 204 innings pitched and a 3.00 ERA are typically reserved for elite prospects or pitchers in Gerrit Cole‘s tax bracket.

Unfortunately, Lugo was fortuitous last season and is headed towards regression. Lugo’s second full season as a starter was arguably worse than his first in 2023 where he posted a 3.57 ERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) fell from 17.2% to 15.7% and his xFIP rose from 3.76 to 3.83.

Lugo pitches in an improving division and half of his games are in the now hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium. Regression may not jump his ERA beyond 4.00. However, with a declining strikeout rate, his numbers may reflect that of a back-end starter rather than a pitcher with a fantasy baseball ADP of around pick 150.

Alexis Diaz (RP – CIN) | ADP: 161

Alexis Diaz’s bust potential was a loud sentiment in the fantasy community last season and should continue into 2025. The young reliever is mediocre. While he may have 75 career saves through three seasons and an ERA just below 3.00 (2.93), Diaz’s peripheral stats are horrible.

Diaz is a flyball pitcher whose home games are played in the league’s best park for home runs. He has only surrendered 15 in his career. With a run of bad luck, however, that number may double this season alone. His xFIP jumped from a pedestrian 4.20 in 2023 to an egregious 5.06 last season. His SIERA was more kind as it only jumped from 3.76 to 4.48.

Worst of all, Diaz fills the bases with walks and does not suffer the repercussions. His walk rate is between 12.6% and 12.9% every season of his career while his strikeout rate declines. Unless Diaz altered his repertoire or found his velocity from 2023, expect a rough season that should result in a demotion.

Lane Thomas (OF – CLE) | ADP: 177

Lane Thomas was a playoff stud for the Guardians as he hit two home runs in 10 games and walked nearly as much as he struck out. Nevertheless, he struggled during the regular season after his trade from Washington. The speedy outfielder is talented but unlikely to ever repeat his stellar 2023 season.

Thomas slashed .209/.267/.390 in 53 games with Cleveland after slashing .253/.331/.407 with Washington in 77 games. The impending free agent went from fantasy stud to dud, especially on the basepaths, as he stole 28 bases with the Nationals but just four with the Guardians.

Statcast park factors rank Nationals Park as the eighth-most hitter-friendly in baseball while Progressive Field ranks sixth-worst. This is likely why Thomas struggled after the move and why his 2023 season is an aberration if he sticks in Cleveland.

Thomas’ splits that year were absurd as he posted a .887 OPS at home and just .689 on the road. Unless the Guardians trade him back to Washington or somewhere like Colorado, avoid Thomas in drafts.