The season hasn’t even started yet, but it’s already time to start thinking about the dog days of summer. We do all the research we can to ensure our team is set up for success at the draft table. Then, by the middle of the season, the innings pile up for starting pitchers.
Real-life managers have to make decisions for the good of their teams. That can mean reliable starting pitchers for fantasy baseball are suddenly unusable. Garrett Crochet is a top-10 starting pitcher this year. Yet, you could have found him on the waiver wire last year as he pitched a total of 44 innings from the start of July through the end of the season.
Read on to see which pitchers are worth monitoring this season.
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Innings Limits to Monitor
Shohei Ohtani (SP – LAD)
We know Shohei Ohtani underwent shoulder surgery to repair his labrum during the offseason. That’s after being unable to pitch in 2024 as he recovered from what was presumed to be his second Tommy John surgery. Multiple surgeries on the arm area are assuredly going to force the Dodgers to monitor his innings pitched.
Honestly, Ohtani is the heading of this section, but it really could be any Dodgers starting pitcher. With their offseason additions of Roki Sasaki and Blake Snell, they legitimately have 10 starting pitcher options. Unfortunately for them, many are not exactly pinnacles of health, including Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Dustin May. The expectation should be that all of them will be limited at times this season.
Jared Jones (SP – PIT)
Jared Jones could have been on this list last offseason when it became apparent he would make the Major League roster. The Pirates were cautious with him last season and have plenty of reasons to be cautious with him again.
In his rookie season, Jones was able to pitch 121 innings at the Major League level. He also threw 11 more innings at Triple-A. The 132 combined innings were a new career high for Jones. The cautiousness of the Pirates didn’t prevent all the injuries, as he still missed nearly two months with a lat muscle strain.
While the Pirates are likely to be an improved team in 2025, they are still unlikely to be competing for a playoff spot. That gives them plenty of reasons to be cautious with Jones at the end of the season.
Grayson Rodriguez (SP – BAL)
There was hope Grayson Rodriguez’s first full Major League season would repeat or even build upon the over 160 innings he threw in 2023. Considering he was on the injured list (IL) multiple times, that didn’t happen.
Rodriguez’s first injury was to his shoulder in late April. That injury only cost him about two weeks. It was discomfort in his lat area that knocked him out for the season in early August. In total, he pitched only 116 innings.
While Baltimore is assuredly going to be in the playoff chase, they also have to consider Rodriguez’s future. He is under team control through 2030. With the amount of young talent the team has, they would like to consider that entire stretch as a possible championship window. That means not overusing their 25-year-old ace this season. It’s hard to envision a scenario in which he gets back to the 160 innings he threw in 2023.
Spencer Strider (SP – ATL)
We are only a year removed from Spencer Strider being the no-doubt top starting pitcher option in fantasy baseball. Injuries got in the way of him delivering on that cost. We have to see where he can get to in innings pitched coming off an internal brace procedure to his elbow.
All indications are Strider is progressing well in his recovery. Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos recently indicated Strider is meeting the expectations set for him in his recovery. His remarks even made it sound as if he could be ready to go for the opening of the regular season. That would be phenomenal. There is almost no way they will push him again to the 186 innings he pitched in 2023.
A more realistic innings target for Strider would be around the 131 innings he threw in 2022. Here’s a quick reminder that in 131 innings that season, he was still able to strike out 202 batters with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. His average draft position (ADP) outside of the top 100 will end up being a steal If he delivers that again.
Nick Lodolo (SP – CIN)
The injuries continue to mount for Nick Lodolo. Last season was a career-high in innings pitched for him, but it was still only 123 innings pitched.
Lodolo was placed on the IL four times last season. The first two injuries were to his leg area with a calf and a groin injury. Then, as he was starting to get going again in the summer, blisters and sprains to his fingers caused more IL stints.
When healthy, Lodolo continues to show dominant strikeout potential with plus control. That’s a good way to be considered an early selection at the pitching position. The strange part is he continues to struggle to keep runs off the board, posting a 4.76 ERA in 2024. Add in not being able to trust the innings pitched from him and you see why his fantasy baseball ADP is nearly 250.
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