Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable week so far as we celebrate the temperature getting above 40 degrees in the Midwest. It’s a big deal.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a five-game slate tonight, which is a bit limiting but helps get creative for some GPP cashes.
Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable week so far as we celebrate the temperature getting above 40 degrees in the Midwest. It’s a big deal.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a five-game slate tonight, which is a bit limiting but helps get creative for some GPP cashes.
Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
We have a 242-point total tonight, the highest of the slate, for this game. There is a very clear reason to go to Nikola Jokic in this matchup. The Denver center has averaged 67 fantasy points a night while Milwaukee has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing centers in their last 15 games.
This will be a high-rostered game but no player has a higher ceiling on the slate, and I don’t feel like I have to explain myself much here. I’d lean more toward GPP slates to roster Jokic as it might be a bit more difficult to find pure value. But if he goes beyond 70 points then he is a near-must roster for a big cash.
The Suns forward has posted 37 fantasy points in six of his last seven games while averaging 45 fantasy points a game on the season. This game has a 236-point total. As the second-highest total on the slate, I imagine Phoenix will be a high-rostered squad. I expect Durant to lead that charge.
The Pelicans have allowed the most DraftKings points to opposing small forwards and rank as the third-fastest-paced team in the league. In that same time frame, the Pelicans are the fourth-worst defense. Considering they’re playing on the road, Durant gets a bit of a bump for his projections.
Durant has shown his ability to get over 60 fantasy points consistently throughout the season. Without the crazy price to spend up on, this is a great option.
After coming off a 60-DraftKings point outing, you can see why Kyrie Irving is listed here. This will be a pace-down spot for Dallas but with the shakeup of the Mavericks’ roster, Irving has seen his usage bump up closer to 31%. He’s scoring at a higher clip and his floor has significantly risen.
Irving has cleared 47 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and I project him to do it again tonight. Despite Charlotte ranking so low in pace of play, they still allow the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
This goes with the caveat that Anthony Edwards plays today. If he does, he’s in line for a big game. The Lakers’ defense has been solid of late but I usually try and chase usage and minutes when finding cash game options. Edwards has both.
Since the All-Star break, Edwards sits over 37 minutes a game with a 33% usage rate. No Rudy Gobert means extra play for the Minnesota guard, and that’s exactly why he’s in this spot. After a back-to-back against Oklahoma City where Edwards performed well, I can’t say I’m scared of the Lakers’ defense here.
I project Edwards for around 50 points. He’s scored 40+ DraftKings points in each of his last 13 contests, so there is a clear floor here.
When I’m not chasing usage or minutes, a clear factor is pacing and over/under. Denver-Milwaukee has that. It’s not as if Aaron Gordon isn’t playing well either. Since returning from break, his minutes have jumped to 30 a night and he’s scoring 22 a game while averaging over 34 DraftKings points in that time frame.
This is a slate where the value hasn’t opened up yet as we wait on injuries, so Gordon makes a perfect spend-down option to give some breathing room to the rest of your lineup as someone who should return over 30 fantasy points.
Zion Williamson doesn’t exactly yell “trust” and “dependable” but on a five-game slate, you have to reach a little bit sometimes. I’m looking at recent numbers when making this decision. Williamson is consistently playing over 28 minutes a night with a 32% usage rate. That is ideal for only $8,700 in a game with a 237-point total against a sub-par defense.
Right before the break, Williamson put up 58 fantasy points and is averaging 44 DraftKings points per game in his last four. That’s exactly right around where he’s projected. If he gets you there then you should be golden for a double-up or head-to-head victory.
This is a game theory play with how low-rostered Steph Curry projects to be tonight. He’s projected for right around double-digit rostership but his chance of a boom game and a need in your GPP or cash lineups is significantly higher than that.
Curry has hit over 60 DraftKings points this season and has consistently tallied over 50. Orlando is not the friendliest DFS matchup. However, in their last 15 games, their defense has dropped a bit and I’m trying to take advantage of the rostership scarcity facing Orlando. I’d stick to Curry in deep-field GPPs but he still makes for a perfect leverage option.
The reason why Bol Bol is in the GPP category is because his minutes per game are a simple shrug emoji. Right now he’s projected to start, per Basketball Monster. While the game went to overtime last time out, Bol did show he could return 31 minutes on the court with relatively efficient usage.
The lanky Phoenix forward has returned over 5o fantasy points before and New Orleans is the perfect team to do it against again. As mentioned with Durant, this is a team that has struggled against opposing forwards with a fast pace and bad defense. The 237-point total is what I’m chasing and I’m hoping the 7-foot-2 forward plays more than 20 minutes. If he does, he’s gonna get you places.
In the same game on the other side, I project Jose Alvarado as a great value but he isn’t getting much rostership. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing point guards in their last 15 games than the Phoenix Suns.
Alvarado has averaged over 33 DraftKings points a night. In a friendly matchup, he could get to 6X value with a similar output. Despite that, I’m projecting a sub-15% rostership for him without many other clear point guard options, especially if you don’t want to break the bank. Alvarado should see more rostership closer to lock. Either way, he’s an ideal play.
Since the All-Star break, AJ Green has been playing serious minutes, averaging nearly 33 minutes in his last four games. The playing time projection alone makes him an excellent value option, especially in a game with a total of over 240 points.
Denver has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards and I expect Green to capitalize on that. Right now with lineups still in the air, Green is your best value option.
If you’re looking for a punt option at center, go with Karlo Matkovic (your other option is Yves Missi, though). He’s more of a GPP play but he’s been averaging 20 minutes a night over his last four games and has seen a significant bump in usage rate and scoring.
The Suns have been a bit overrated as they rank third to last in defensive efficiency over their last 15 games. They’ve also allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this year. Matkovic won’t get insane playing time but he should be efficient on the court when he plays and return value at his cheap price tag.
