When it comes to fantasy baseball, landing the right starting pitchers can make or break your season. Drafting an ace is crucial, but finding value arms and avoiding potential busts is just as important. To help you navigate the 2024 fantasy baseball landscape, we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros. These experts break down the starting pitchers to target and avoid, highlighting sleepers, breakouts, and potential landmines based on performance trends, advanced metrics, and team situations. Before you draft, check out their expert takes on which arms can give you an edge-and which ones could derail your championship hopes.
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Starting Pitchers to Target & Avoid
Who’s your biggest bust inside the top 20 SPs and why?
Chris Sale (SP – ATL)
“Chris Sale was dominant last season, but you’re paying for him to be great again at in his age 36 season. He pitched 177.2 innings last season, which is the most innings he threw since 2017. From 2021-23, Sale pitched a combined 151 innings. He couldn’t pitch at the end of the season due to a back injury. At cost, he’s a fade.”
– Adam Ronis (Sirius XM)
Corbin Burnes (SP – ARI)
“Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks Picking a “bust” inside the Top 20 at a position is hardly fair, but as the sixth-ranked SP with an ADP of #35, I’m choosing Burnes. His K% is in perennial decline, making it more a fact than even a trend. According to Fangraphs, 2024 was his worst season since 2019 in BAA, BABIP, and WHIP, while his Barrels, Barrel%, HardHit, and Hardhit% were all their worst going back to 2020. If Burnes didn’t decline in a category in 2024, it’s probably because someone forgot to chart him for it. I have Burnes projected, at his best, for an ERA of around 3.40 with 170 strikeouts and a Whip of 1.15. For the 6th-ranked SP, I can get those numbers at SP57, where Nathan Eovaldi and Jose Berrios roam.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)
Logan Webb (SP – SF)
“Since I am running out of ways to express my bewilderment that Jacob deGrom is in the Top 20, I’ll go with Logan Webb. Webb continued being MLB’s Mr. GroundBall in 2024, boasting a 57.2% ground ball rate while throwing 204 2/3 innings. Webb’s durability and compiled innings are his claim to fantasy relevancy, as his 20.5% strikeout rate requires volume to have a positive impact. Of note, his 3.41 ERA featured some luck with an xERA of 4.31, and his WHIP jumped to 1.23 from 1.07. He has double-digit wins in each of the last two years, which again is more of a product of his innings than anything else. I’m afraid 2025 may be the year that Webb fails to recoup his value.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Jacob deGrom (SP – TEX)
“Jacob deGrom turns 37 years old in a few months. He hasn’t pitched a full season since all the way back in 2019, when he was a spry 31-year-old. While I still think deGrom can be really good, obviously, I struggle with a price tag that is pushing the Top 50 in redraft leagues. I won’t go as far as to say you’re drafting him at his ceiling, but we have no way of knowing what his ceiling really is at this point. I AM confident in saying you’re drafting him closer to his realistic ceiling than his realistic floor because we’ve seen the floor at some point every year since 2021. My main issue with gambling on deGrom at this price is this: if you hit on deGrom, he isn’t a league winner. He’s just another really good pick that you paid a fair price for. But if you miss on him, it could be a dagger in your season. ”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Who’s your top breakout candidate inside the top 60 SPs and why?
Spencer Arrighetti (SP – HOU)
“Spencer Arrighetti is ready to break out. The overall ERA of 4.53 is misleading, especially with a 4.05 xERA. In the second half of the season, Arrighetti had a whiff rate of at least 37.8% on three pitches and over 75 innings, he had a 3.18 ERA and 78 strikeouts. The walk rates improved as the season went on, and he was hit with some bad luck early on BABIP and strand rates.”
– Adam Ronis (FantasyLife)
“With an ERA of 4.53, it’s difficult to call ’24 a breakout, so I’m going with Spencer Arrighetti in 2025 because he qualifies. With a K/9 of 10.61 and a K% of 27.1, as well as a FIP of 3.95 and a BaBip of .350, the numbers show that Spencer A both has the stuff and actually had the season in 2024 that should have been more highly publicized. FantasyPros.com ranks him 56th amongst SP, while I would have him closer to 30th, with a justified ADP of closer to 100 than where it currently stands outside the top 200. Ratios are a fickle mistress, so to project his “breakout” ERA and WHIP is tricky. However, 200 Ks are rare, and I see Arrighetti breaking that threshold in 2025 with the ERA and WHIP commensurate with No. 2 starter stuff. I’m drafting him ahead of higher-ranked SPs like Max Fried and Tyler Glasnow, and with the suppressed ADP, Arrighetti will give teammate Framber Valdez a run for his statistical money just 140 picks (14 rounds) later. I think that qualifies as a breakout.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)
Hunter Greene (SP – CIN)
“Hunter Greene delivered an impressive 2024 season, posting a 9-5 record with a 2.75 ERA over 26 starts, totaling 150 1/3 innings pitched. He struck out 169 batters and maintained a WHIP of 1.02. While his career ERA stands at 3.90, his 2024 performance suggests a positive trend. My only concern with him is an elbow injury that kept him out of action in August last year. However, assuming he remains healthy, Greene’s high strikeout potential and improving control make him an excellent breakout candidate in 2025.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Jared Jones (SP – PIT)
“Jared Jones debuted last season, and there was a lot to like. He gets overshadowed by Paul Skenes, but he’s a darn good pitching prospect in his own right. His challenge is finding a third pitch to go along with his fastball-slider combo that he relied on in 2024. Last year, he threw a curveball and a changeup, but neither was effective enough to be featured. In fact, neither pitch even earned a 10% usage rate, as Jones relied on his four-seamer nearly 50% of the time and his slider just under 35% of the time. That isn’t usually a recipe for success, but those pitches were so good that he had a solid year anyway. If he can develop a reliable third pitch, he has the ceiling of an SP1 in fantasy.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Who’s your favorite sleeper outside the top 60 SPs and why?
Gavin Williams (SP – CLE)
“Gavin Williams had a rough season last year with an elbow injury that kept him sidelined to start the season. When he returned, he never looked right. Williams is healthy now, worked on his mechanics, and his fastball is generating a ton of swings and misses in the spring, and he worked on his slider. Williams has 16 strikeouts in eight spring innings. He was a first-round pick in 2021 and is only 25.”
– Adam Ronis (FantasyLife)
Jesus Luzardo (SP – PHI)
“Jesus Luzardo has always had nasty stuff from the Devil’s side and the K/9 to show for it before his injury-plagued 2024. Prior to ’24, Luzardo had maintained a K/9 of 9.00 or better, including two seasons over 10, while he struck out 208 in 2023, a number I think he will threaten (though likely comes up slightly short due to a lack of total innings) in 2025. His velocity and health are back, and he’s pitching for a contender in Philly, making Luzardo a steal as the 74th-ranked SP with an ADP of close to #250. I’d draft him ahead of Jose Berrios and Tanner Houck in the 200th overall neighborhood, just after MacKenzie Gore (another underrated Lefthander with K stuff), who is going in that same residential complex. And, when 2025 is in the books, I wouldn’t be surprised if we look back and say, “Pick No. 130ish…. ahead of Carlos Rodon and Jared Jones and Kevin Gausman. Absolutely.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)
Kumar Rocker (SP – TEX)
“Kumar Rocker may not get enough innings to warrant sleeper status, but he is literally free in drafts, and the upside is inarguable. He rocketed through the minors in 2024 and reached the majors, where he only threw 11 2/3 innings but struck out 14 batters. He has a dangerous fastball/curveball combo and could become one of the better starters in baseball if he adds a third pitch. Either way, he will rack up the strikeouts in 2025 and could become a boon to fantasy teams that roster him.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Walker Buehler (SP – BOS)
“I think we see a major bounce-back from Walker Buehler this season, and at SP74, he’s going late in drafts. After missing 2023 and struggling once he got back on the mound in 2024, we saw flashes of the 2021 version of Buehler in the playoffs. Now in Boston, he joins a Red Sox organization that has overhauled their pitching program and had success in 2024 with refined approaches for many of their pitchers. One major strategy Boston focused on was reducing four-seamer usage and relying more on secondary pitches to keep opposing batters uncomfortable. And good news: Walker Buehler throws SEVEN different pitches. We should see an uptick in sweeper and knuckle curve usage — two pitches he’s had success with in the past — in 2025. And while it’s a small sample size, the early results in Spring Training have been solid.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
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