5 High-Risk/High-Reward Draft Picks: Pitchers (Fantasy Baseball)

Pitchers are inherently the riskiest position in fantasy baseball. The body simply isn’t designed to sling balls 100 miles per hour (MPH). Also, an imperceptible change to the pitcher’s mechanics can throw his command off substantially. The risk can’t be completely avoided because we need them to win fantasy leagues.

Some people may prefer the boring and safe route when selecting pitchers. That can work, but it caps the upside of your picks and means that every selection needs to deliver. If you have the stomach for it, a different strategy is to acquire some high-risk but high-reward pitchers. While these pitchers have even more risk than the typical pitcher because of their histories, they also have the opportunity to return a top-tier outcome if everything comes together.

High Risk/High Reward Picks: Pitchers

Jacob deGrom (SP – TEX)

Jacob deGrom’s name on a list of high-risk and high-reward pitchers should surprise no one. When he has pitched the last few seasons, he has continued to show Hall of Fame metrics. The issue is that he has not been able to pitch 100 innings in a season since 2019.

It was encouraging to see deGrom return to make three starts last September. There were no clear signs of decline as he struck out 14 batters with only one walk in 10.2 innings. That is essentially what he has shown over the past three years. You need to combine the past three seasons to get anywhere close to a decent sample size. If you do that, he is at 105 innings pitched with a 2.82 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP with 161 strikeouts.

Ideally, we would be getting more of a discount on him in fantasy drafts than his current average draft position (ADP) of 63. We’re not, though, and that is what makes the risk on deGrom as high as any player.

Tyler Glasnow (SP – LAD)

The 2024 season was a career-high in innings pitched for Tyler Glasnow. Unfortunately, that career-high was still only 134 innings, as he was shut down in mid-August with an elbow sprain.

Injuries with Glasnow are going to be part of the story. Luckily, Glasnow himself recently gave us an update on his health when he reported to spring training, saying he felt as well as he has ever felt. Players are often overly optimistic about their health, but it was still an encouraging update.

When Glasnow pitches, there are very few who can do what he can on a per-inning basis. In his 134 innings last season, he was still able to strike out 168 batters with a 3.49 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. Those are ace-quality numbers that can now be had outside the top 25 starting pitchers.

Spencer Strider (SP – ATL)

The consensus top pitcher in fantasy baseball drafts going into the 2024 fantasy baseball was Spencer Strider. Proving the volatility of the position, he made it all of nine innings before his season ended early with pain in his right elbow.

Strider elected to have the internal brace procedure instead of the full Tommy John surgery. If he had opted for the Tommy John surgery, he wouldn’t be back until midseason. The brace procedure speeds up the timeline but doesn’t ensure he’ll be ready for Opening Day. Even if he is back relatively early in the season, there is very little chance he will get to the 186 innings he threw in 2023.

A more realistic expectation would be the 131 innings he threw in 2022. Remember, he was still able to strike out over 200 batters with that limited workload.

Bryan Woo (SP – SEA)

Which starting pitcher do you think led the Seattle Mariners in ERA last season? The initial guess would likely be one of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller or Luis Castillo. All of them are phenomenal, but it was Bryan Woo who led the way with a 2.89 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP.

The difference between Woo and the other Seattle starting pitchers is volume. The other four each reached at least 175 innings pitched, while Woo was at 121. The reason for the limited innings was that he battled arm injuries throughout the first half. It’s rare that rest truly heals a pitcher’s arm, but it seemingly helped Woo. He pitched 71 of his innings from July 27th through the end of the season.

If Woo’s arm can continue to hold up all season, he has the potential to join his teammates as an early-round selection.

Luis Gil (SP – NYY)

The final high-risk but high-reward pitcher on the list is defending American League Rookie of the Year Luis Gil. While there are injury concerns, his walking tendencies pose an additional risk.

Gil returned from Tommy John surgery to pitch 151 innings in 2024. He has already undergone an MRI this spring after experiencing some tightness in his shoulder. The MRI revealed a lat strain that will likely keep him out until June. Even when he returns from his injury issue, the other concern with Gil is the walks.

Gil’s 77 walks last season were the most in all of baseball. You are always dealing with a thin margin of error when you put that many runners on base. It can work, but you have to also be able to strike out batters in bunches, a la Blake Snell.

Articles Busts MLB MLB Draft Advice Jacob deGrom Tyler Glasnow Spencer Strider Bryan Woo Logan Gilbert George Kirby Bryce Miller Luis Castillo Luis Gil Blake Snell