Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable weekend and a wonderful season so far as we enter March and the sun shines longer into the night. It’s been a grind this season with ups and downs but overall it’s been a wonderful year and I hope you’ve been following along.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a seven-game slate tonight, which is the perfect slate amount of games. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable weekend and a wonderful season so far as we enter March and the sun shines longer into the night. It’s been a grind this season with ups and downs but overall it’s been a wonderful year and I hope you’ve been following along.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a seven-game slate tonight, which is the perfect slate amount of games. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
It’s been an impressive last month of play in Detroit with the Pistons going 9-1 over their last 10 games. The offense has ranked fourth-best in the league and they rank the same when it comes to pace of play. Tonight, Cade Cunningham and Co. get the best matchup you could ask for against the Utah Jazz, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards.
In the last three games, the Oklahoma State product hasn’t performed to his ceiling, but he plays well with pace. Just a week ago against Atlanta, we saw what he’s capable of, scoring 76 DraftKings points. In a pace-up spot against one of the worst defenses in the league, you could not ask for a better spot than this one tonight.
If the Utah Jazz aren’t the best matchup, the Washington Wizards might be. Washington ranks third on the year in defensive efficiency while sitting top-five in pace of play. Bam Adebayo gets this game at home and has torn apart this defense in the past. No team has allowed more DraftKings points to opposing centers than the Wizards, and I expect Adebayo to add to that stat.
Adebayo’s usage rate and minutes have stayed consistent and even seen a small bump since the All-Star break while his salary has stayed the same. The Miami frontcourt piece makes an excellent option for a center that won’t break the bank but still offers a high ceiling.
I apologize for doubling up on Miami players but I expect them to excel tonight. For someone so dependent on shooting, Tyler Herro is one of the most dependable players out there. He’s scored over 38 fantasy points in six of his last seven games and tonight lines up for an excellent outing. In their last 30 games, the Wizards have allowed the third-most points to opposing shooting guards.
The Kentucky product is averaging 37 minutes a night in his last six games with a usage rate of over 30%. In a pace-up spot, he’s going to get plenty of run and should cash in more than the four three-pointers he’s been averaging this year. I project him for around 43 fantasy points but his previously evidenced ceiling gets him beyond 60.
Considering the 76ers dual-eligible player has played over 40 minutes in two consecutive games, Kelly Oubre’s price tag of $6,300 is a steal on DraftKings. You can expect him to get to the 30-point mark. His guard-forward status makes for an easy slot to fill within your lineups.
The total sits at 230 and Portland has been the fastest-paced team since the All-Star break. A higher number of possessions for Oubre, who might see the floor more than anyone else on the slate, is an easy option for a high floor to throw into your cash lineups.
Another game with a monumental total I’d advise getting in on is Atlanta-Memphis. This total sits at 253 and I expect it to be the highest rostered game of the night with the most possessions and expected scoring.
Ja Morant is questionable for tonight with a shoulder injury. If he’s out, Bane becomes a lock. Even so, he still projects quite well. Both teams rank in the top six in pace of play and Atlanta has struggled since the break, ranking third-worst in defensive efficiency over their last six games. Bane has a decent ceiling but a comfortable floor while still allowing you to spend up elsewhere.
In his last five games, Kyrie Irving has averaged 48 fantasy points a night. Since the break, he’s averaged 38 minutes a night with a 31% usage rate. No matter the matchup, Irving will get his fill.
The Dallas guard hasn’t scored fewer than 30 DraftKings points in over a month, and I don’t expect today to be that game. He is a bit expensive, but if you can afford him with the value options on the slate, he is a very safe cash option.
Anytime Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on the slate, I’m going to find somewhere to put him in this article. He’s averaging 53 fantasy points a night and hasn’t gone below 39.5 DraftKings points since mid-December. That’s 33 straight games with a high floor. You can’t find that consistent production anywhere else.
He’s a bit expensive for the matchup to make him one of my core plays, but Gilgeous-Alexander always has a ceiling capable of 60+ points any given night. The total isn’t much to write home about, but I don’t feel I have to be too convincing of rostering Gilgeous-Alexander in deep-field GPPs as he might have the highest ceiling of anyone on the slate.
The only reason I’m putting Dyson Daniels in this category is his rostership appears to be falling through the cracks in early projections. He’s been surprisingly consistent given his 18% usage rate, scoring 27+ fantasy points in 12 straight games. He has shown a ceiling of 50+ points.
I’ve mentioned the high total in this one and Trae Young is still dealing with his achilles injury. While Young is probable to play, Daniels has seen 34 minutes a night. With such a high-paced game against a defense ranked 27th since the All-Star break, he makes for a great GPP play.
I’d say on a risk scale, rostering Jabari Smith Jr. might be the highest it goes. He’s not the most consistent, scoring just seven fantasy points last week against Utah. He’s also facing one of the best defenses in the league tonight and his usage rate is at 15% on the season.
Those reasons are exactly why he’s getting zero rostership and why he’s worthy of more. We’ve seen 40+ point outings and a lot of the starting lineup for Houston is dealing with a variety of injuries. He’s more of a large-field leverage play but there is a path to success for the Houston forward, especially if Chet Holmgren is out with an ankle injury.
With Domantas Sabonis out tonight, I expect Jonas Valanciunas to be the best return on your investment for this slate. When he’s on the court, the Kings center has seen a usage rate of around 20%. He had a nice outing last game with 30 minutes and an easy double-double.
I project him for over 30 minutes and around 35 fantasy points tonight. Dallas has ranked in the middle of the pack for most defensive metrics but a 232 total is respectable and Kai Jones doesn’t exactly strike fear. Valanciunas is an easy spend-down option, especially with the slate of pure centers.
Throw a dart at any of the Hawks’ frontcourt starter options and they’re probably a good value option. Between Mouhamed Gueye, Zaccharie Risacher and Onyeka Okongwu, Gueye is my choice when it comes to value. He’s started seven straight games and should see additional minutes tonight.
With a price tag below $4,000, even 20 minutes of play should return value in a game with two bottom-five defenses that will run and gun all game. Memphis has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards in their last seven games, so I’m banking on the friendly matchup to return solid value for this punt power forward-center option.
If you aren’t rostering Atlanta or Memphis players, look to Detroit starters. Utah ranks last in season-long defensive efficiency and is in the bottom five since returning from break.
Ausur Thompson has averaged 23 fantasy points a game but he’s scored over that mark in 12 straight matches. He’s also gone over 30 in seven of his last 11 outings — an easy benchmark to reach tonight.
