Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what’s important, allowing astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
We are very early in the season when people will make bad decisions in terms of trades because of the small samples. Hot streaks and cold streaks can scare your competition. Sometimes underlying numbers aren’t showing up in the surface numbers quite yet. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, take advantage of their impatience. Here are some players I would try and buy low and sell high on at this point in the season. Use our fantasy baseball trade analyzer to help with values.
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Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
Buy Low
Yainer Diaz has started terribly, hitting .061/.139/.061 with zero home runs or stolen bases. Things don’t look good right now, but the underlying numbers are fine, and he will be, too. He has just been unlucky and struggling. Diaz is a great player to trade for at a reduced rate.
Marcus Semien has struggled to start the season, hitting .122/.189/.184 with one home run. He is coming off a down season, so some are worried this is the collapse for him, but I wouldn’t worry.
The underlying numbers are fine, as he is making league-average contact and hitting the ball as hard as he did last season. All he does is accumulate. There is no reason to think he won’t do that again this season.
It has been ugly for Dylan Cease to start the year. Through three starts, he has thrown 14.2 innings with a 7.98 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. However, his xERA is just 3.71, and he has an inflated batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .390 compared to a career .292 BABIP.
Cease has also gotten unlucky with a 46.3% strand rate when he has been a 73% pitcher in his career and 69% the last two seasons. He will be much better.
Chris Sale has struggled in his first three starts, throwing 14.2 innings with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Sale has been unlucky as well.
Sale’s expected ERA (xERA) is 3.84 and his xFIP is 3.19. His strand rate is 20% lower than his career average and his BABIP is almost .100 points above his career average. Sale will be fine.
Sell High
Andrew Heaney has been great in two starts, throwing 12 innings with a 1.50 ERA and a 25.5% strikeout rate. I have been a big Heaney believer in the past, but the struggles with his command and health have been occurring throughout his career.
This is a good park for him to pitch in, so there is some protection against home runs, but he is also on a bad team that won’t give him many chances to win.
Mitchell Parker has been great in his first two starts, throwing 12.1 innings with a 0.73 ERA. The problem is he has been really lucky.
Parker’s strikeout rate is low, his walk rate is high and he is getting lucky in his BABIP and strand rate. Parker can be a decent MLB starter, but there is some regression coming fast.
Jacob Wilson can hit. He may have one of the best hit tools in the Majors. However, he doesn’t have much else. He already has two home runs, and I would be surprised if he got to double digits by the end of the season.
Wilson has never stolen more than four bases in a season in the Minor Leagues, so he probably won’t deliver anything but a very good average.
Logan O’Hoppe has talent, so there is reason to like him, but he has been on an absolute tear that is unsustainable. His .375 BABIP is 0.75 points too high, and he is striking out at a 37% rate.
O’Hoppe is making below league average contact and while I believe he has power, his HR/FB rate is way too high. This doesn’t even mention his bad injury history. Now is a pretty good time to sell.
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