NBA DFS Lineup Picks & Advice: Thursday (4/3)

Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. The season is winding down before the playoffs get going, so rotations may get a little wonky and experimental, but there’s no time like the present for a big cash. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.

We have a six-game slate tonight, which means we might have to dig for value. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Core Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF, C – MIL)

DraftKings: $12,100
FanDuel: $12,300

What better way for Milwaukee to clinch a top-six playoff seed than with a win over Philadelphia? The Bucks have been managing Giannis Antetokounmpo’s foot injury, but they still have plenty of time to rest him up for the rest of the season after they lock in a playoff spot, so I expect him to be full go tonight.

Antetokounmpo’s usage rate is insane. He’s an insane player. He faces the league’s worst defense since the All-Star break tonight. In their last 15 games, the 76ers has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. Guerschon Yabusele is questionable, so things are lining up for the perfect storm of DFS performances out of Antetokounmpo.

Tyler Herro (PG – MIA)

DraftKings: $9,000
FanDuel: $8,500

The rare DraftKings price over FanDuel price still gives us a solid core play on either site. Memphis has been the second-fastest-paced team in the league over its last 20 games. With all the injuries, Tyler Herro is going to see additional minutes and additional usage.

Herro is already sitting at 35 minutes a game with over a 28% usage rate across the six-game winning streak they’re on. The Miami guard is averaging over 45 DraftKings points a night over his last five games. Projecting that closer to a floor performance feels safe.

Deni Avdija (PF, SF – POR)

DraftKings: $8,600
FanDuel: $8,700

For a player I didn’t expect to end up in my core plays, Deni Avdija is on that list. But here we are. Portland has consolidated its usage, and Avdija is an efficient player with over 1.10 fantasy points per minute this year.

Avdija should see over 36 minutes tonight, as he has in the last two weeks of play. His usage rate has jumped over 27%. Toronto’s defense has taken a step up recently, but Avdija is still getting a lot of rostership tonight, and with good reason.

NBA DFS Cash Game Targets

Franz Wagner (SG, SF, PF – ORL)

DraftKings: $8,800
FanDuel: $8,600

There isn’t much changing here with the condensed usage rate Orlando gives us, which makes decisions easier for DFS purposes. Franz Wagner is my choice over Paolo Banchero simply because of pricing. If you can afford an extra $1,000 or so, be my guest.

Wagner offers a 30% usage rate against a bottom-five defensive unit as Orlando fights for a better NBA Play-In Tournament spot. I’m happy rostering Wagner in cash lineups despite the lower total on the slate. He’s cleared 35 DraftKings points in eight of his last nine games, so there’s a clear floor tonight.

Lonnie Walker (SG, SF – PHI)

DraftKings: $4,700
FanDuel: $5,000

Philly is a mess right now and not exactly a fun team to target in the DFS field, but someone has to play. Lonnie Walker is projected for around 28 minutes tonight. With a 20% usage rate, his value is projected at over 6X.

Walker is expected to score over 30 fantasy points and his guard-forward status on DraftKings makes for easy roster construction. It’s not a sexy pick, but it should be a friendly pick for your lineups.

LeBron James (SF, PF – LAL)

DraftKings: $10,100
FanDuel: $9,700

The usage on the Lakers goes almost entirely through LeBron James and Luka Doncic, so if you can afford them, it’s an easy choice. Playing 37 minutes with over a 25% usage rate is convincing enough for me to go with James in cash lineups. They both make for some decent late swap options as well, with how late their game is.

James has only dipped below 38 DraftKings points once in his last 24 games, and that’s been around his pure floor. There’s an easy path to 50+ points here against Golden State at home, but with his projected popularity, I’d keep him as a cash option.

NBA DFS GPP Targets

Anthony Edwards (SG, SF – BKN)

DraftKings: $9,800
FanDuel: $9,500

The heavy hitter falling through the cracks is Anthony Edwards. It’s a relatively gross matchup against Brooklyn with a 215 total on the road, but as Minnesota fights to get into a top-six playoff spot, I imagine they’ll trust their go-to guy with additional usage and minutes.

Even if I’m wrong, Edwards is coming off a 62 DraftKings points outing and has shown us a clear ceiling in the past. His ownership is lower than his potential for a ceiling output, so he makes for a fine leverage option off Doncic or Herro in the guard spot.

RJ Barrett (SG, SF – TOR)

DraftKings: $7,800
FanDuel: $7,500

Toronto projects to be one of, if not the highest-rostered team in DFS today, at least on DraftKings, but everyone seems to be skipping over RJ Barrett. His minutes have been a bit of a concern, but he’s off the injury report. Unless something changes, Barrett is expected to play his usual 32 minutes.

Considering his usage was over 40% in his last game, a small sample size, I know, it’s telling how dependable the Raptors are to the Duke product when he’s on the floor. With his dual guard-forward status who doesn’t break the bank, projected for under 7% ownership, he makes for an ideal play in GPP markets.

NBA DFS Value Plays

Orlando Robinson (C – TOR)

DraftKings: $4,300
FanDuel: $5,300

When there’s this much of a price difference between the two sites, you know one is off in a big way. In Orlando Robinson’s starts, he’s covered 23 minutes and went off for 45 DraftKings points against Brooklyn last week.

Portland’s defense is decent but still below average on the season and has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing centers this year. If you need a near punt option for centers, Robinson is your option as he should provide you a quality 27-29 minutes with Toronto’s lineup construction.

Jaylen Wells (SF, SG – MEM)

DraftKings: $3,200
FanDuel: $4,100

For a more GPP-based value option, we have Jaylen Wells. The Grizzlies forward has been starting all year, so this isn’t something new, but his price on DraftKings is at an all-time low.

Wells is still averaging nearly 20 fantasy points a game, so it’s quite tempting for a punt option with the speed Memphis plays at. If you love this game, we have another option for you.

Pelle Larsson (SG, SF – MIA)

DraftKings: $4,400
FanDuel: $4,600

Miami Heat guard-forward Pelle Larsson has started three straight games, averaging over 33 fantasy points in such matchups. This is a big pace-up spot for Miami against a defense ranked 22nd over their last 10 games.

With Duncan Robinson and Andrew Wiggins out, he’s a clear value play. Alternatively, Kyle Anderson is your selection. Feel free to roster both against Memphis.