The tricky part is predicting which rookies, especially highly drafted ones, will be busts. So many variables go into determining which players succeed and fail that it is essentially impossible to do with any consistency … but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try. There are certain red flags we can look for to work out which rookies are most likely to underperform expectations in their NFL careers. Today, I’ll identify a few highly touted players from this year’s class who stand out as potential fantasy disappointments.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
Dynasty Rookie Draft Busts to Avoid
It’s Dynasty Rookie draft season in the fantasy football world, and hype for this year’s class of prospects is at an all-time high. But here’s the dirty secret hiding behind all the Rookie rankings, mock drafts, and trade values: Most of these players will bust. In an average 12-team, five-round Dynasty Rookie draft, well over half of the players selected will never become reliable fantasy scorers. And this isn’t just the late-round dart throws. Plenty of first and second-round Dynasty picks never make good on their potential. Every year we’re left with dynasty rookie draft busts that disappoint.
Travis Hunter (WR/DB – Jacksonville Jaguars)
Here’s the thing. I’m not out on Travis Hunter. I even traded up to snag him in a Startup draft just before the NFL Draft took place. But it’s undeniable that, especially compared to his top-five Rookie draft ADP, the Heisman winner has a much higher chance than most rookies of failing to live up to the hype. The most likely way that Hunter will bust is also the most obvious: He never plays a full-time role on offense, capping his fantasy ceiling. The Jaguars say they intend to use Hunter as a wide receiver first, but who knows how things will actually play out. Maybe Jacksonville’s plan eventually flips, and he only plays key offensive snaps. Or maybe Hunter is “primarily” a receiver but still plays far fewer snaps than a traditional stud WR – he could certainly have a fantasy impact on a 70% route share, but could he live up to the expectations of Dynasty managers selecting him at the 1.02? I doubt it.
These worries are exacerbated by the fact that Hunter’s analytical profile as a prospect is actually fairly underwhelming. In 2024, he ranked just 27th among WRs in this draft class in yards per route run. His other advanced stats are similarly mediocre, especially compared to his sky-high draft capital and expectations. Fantasy managers (myself included) have been willing to look past these numbers for a few reasons. For one, Colorado often passed out of formations with four or even five receivers, which naturally meant lower production shares for Hunter. More importantly, the guy wasn’t even attending receiver meetings and had to have routes signaled to him from the sideline. Especially considering the absolutely glowing reviews from anyone who watched tape on the second overall pick (including, clearly, the Jaguars’ front office), it’s easy to ignore the red flags and trust in Hunter’s talent. But I don’t think anyone should be too shocked if a few years from now we look back and ask what we were all thinking drafting a part-time player with relatively mediocre production numbers as an elite Dynasty asset.
RJ Harvey (RB – Denver Broncos)
I had a lot to say about Hunter (frankly, I was also trying to convince myself), but the case for Harvey as a bust is much simpler. Prior to the NFL Draft, the UCF running back wasn’t on anyone’s radar as a first-round rookie pick. He was the RB10 in consensus NFL mock drafts, behind names like Damien Martinez and D.J. Giddens. I may be telling on myself here, but he wasn’t even in my pre-draft top 10 running back prospect rankings. Of course, draft capital is king when projecting prospects; I’m not saying Harvey should still be the RB10 after being selected by the Broncos with the 60th overall pick. But is he really talented enough to deserve being the consensus RB6 and a first-round pick, or is this just Clyde Edwards-Helaire all over again?
Jaxson Dart (QB – New York Giants)
It almost feels like cheating to include Dart here. The thing about quarterbacks is that, in a Superflex Dynasty format, being a bust or being a hit is very binary. If a QB can stick around as an NFL starter, they’re a hit. If they can’t, they’re a bust. With only 32 starting jobs available, the latter is usually the more likely outcome for all but truly elite prospects. Even now, if you asked Dynasty managers, the majority would likely predict that Dart won’t ever be a franchise quarterback. However, the 25th-overall pick is still being selected in the early second round of Rookie drafts. In fact, I’d argue Dart is actually a good pick there, even if he is very likely to bust.
The key with selecting quarterbacks in Dynasty Rookie drafts is knowing when to move on. Plenty of young quarterbacks who eventually turned out to be “busts” had periods of time where they could easily be flipped for a tidy profit: think Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, and even Zach Wilson. They all flashed enough (and were given enough excuses) to have periods of being valued as top-12 Dynasty QBs, even well into their careers. And fantasy gods forbid Dart actually looks good early in his career. The standards are very low for quarterbacks to skyrocket in value – remember when C.J. Stroud was a top-three overall startup pick? So don’t take my calling Dart a bust candidate to mean you shouldn’t draft him, but if you do, don’t get caught up in the hype and miss a selling window before it slams shut.
Cam Skattebo (RB – New York Giants)
This one hurts me, as I actually love Skattebo as a prospect. With workhorse size and elite receiving metrics, he has the potential to be an absolute fantasy stud. But there are also glaring red flags in the former Sun Devil’s profile. The most obvious of these is a lack of athleticism. Skattebo didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, but he reportedly ran a 4.65 at his pro day (pro day times are usually more favorable than Combine numbers). Very few running backs with times that slow have succeeded at the NFL level. Even if Skattebo can make it work, he’s never going to be an explosive back, which means he’ll need volume to provide fantasy value.
With only fourth-round draft capital on his side, that volume is nowhere near guaranteed. Especially given that the Giants’ coaching staff and front office decision-makers are likely on thin ice heading into 2025, there’s a real chance that Skattebo finds himself behind a brand-new rookie by this time next year. Even in that scenario, he could still have value as a high-tier handcuff – as mentioned, his profile says he could absolutely consolidate volume in the right situation. But getting just a handcuff with an early second-round rookie pick would undeniably be a miss, so Skattebo is definitely a candidate to bust.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
