Today’s MLB DFS main slate has four games starting at 12:15 p.m. ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested pick ’em choices from Sleeper and Underdog are from the four-game slate.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet 
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) vs. WAS
AJ Smith-Shawver is a palatable pick on a lackluster pitching slate. According to FanGraphs, in six starts spanning 32.2 innings this year, Smith-Shawver has a 2.76 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, 4.06 SIERA and 24.6 K%. Sadly, he also has a 5.12 xERA, 10.9 BB% and 1.35 WHIP this year. So, Smith-Shawver isn’t a flawless pick.
Smith-Shawver’s matchup today is favorable. The Nationals are 21st in wRC+ (97) with a 20.6 K% versus righties and 27th in wRC+ (78) with a 20.4 K% on the road this season. Thus, the Braves are -225 favorites, and the game’s total is 9.0 runs.
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) vs. MIN
Tomoyuki Sugano is having a successful first MLB campaign after years of pitching well in NPB. He’s also settled into a groove. Sugano has had the following stats in his last five starts spanning 32.1 innings.
- 2.23 ERA
- 3.72 xFIP
- 3.84 SIERA
- 0.77 WHIP
- Three wins
- Four quality starts
- 17.4 K%
- 2.5 BB%
- 47.9 GB%
- 92 stuff+
- 111 location+
- 106 pitching+
- 10.0 SwStr%
- 25.7 CSW%
Sugano has a nifty matchup today. The Twins are 21st in wRC+ (96) with a 21.2 K% versus righties and 25th in wRC+ (80) with a 21.3 K% on the road this year. Therefore, the Orioles are -135, and the game’s total is 9.0 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
The Orioles have a DFS-friendly matchup against Chris Paddack this afternoon. Paddack has a 4.76 ERA, 4.49 xERA, 4.93 xFIP and 4.85 SIERA in eight starts this year. He’s also had a 6.67 ERA and 4.81 xFIP in 59.1 innings on the road since last year. Finally, since last season, Paddack has allowed a .324 wOBA to lefties and a .323 wOBA to righties.
Core Studs
- Gunnar Henderson has had a .354 OBP, .270 ISO and 154 wRC+ against righties since 2023.
- Ryan O’Hearn has swatted seven homers with 16 runs, 14 RBIs, one stolen base, a .374 OBP, .231 ISO and 157 wRC+ in 123 plate appearances this season.
- Cedric Mullins has hit eight dongs with 21 runs, 25 RBIs, six stolen bases, a .335 OBP, .216 ISO and 126 wRC+ in 161 plate appearances this year.
Value Plays/Punts
- Jackson Holliday has hit four homers with 13 runs, 12 RBIs, two stolen bases, a .318 OBP, .133 ISO and 104 wRC+ in 132 plate appearances this year.
- In 326 plate appearances against righties since 2023, Jonathan Aranda has hit 14 homers with a .365 OBP, .217 ISO and 148 wRC+.
- Drake Baldwin has mashed three taters with a .400 OBP, .236 ISO and 173 wRC+ in 60 plate appearances against righties this season.
Thursday’s Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Gunnar Henderson: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher (Sleeper) (1.82x)
Gunnar Henderson: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher (Underdog)
Henderson has ample pop. In 147 plate appearances this year, Henderson has 22 singles, eight doubles, two triples, six homers, a .275 batting average, .493 slugging and .217 ISO. He also has just a 6.1 BB% this season, taking a more free-swinging approach than in previous seasons. We project Henderson to have 2.3 total bases today in a mouthwatering matchup against Paddack in Henderson’s hitter-friendly home ballpark.
Ryan O’Hearn: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher (Sleeper) (1.67x)
Ryan O’Hearn: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher (Underdog)
Further elaborating on Oriole Park at Camden Yards being a hitter-friendly venue, per Baseball Savant, it’s first in park factor for runs (137), first in park factor for hits (117) and first in park factor for homers (187) in 2025 after renovating the ballpark in the offseason. O’Hearn should benefit from the hitter-friendly conditions in the heart of Baltimore’s lineup. He also has a nice track record against righties, tallying a .281 batting average, .340 OBP and .187 ISO against righties since 2023.
Drake Baldwin: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher (Sleeper) (1.73x)
Drake Baldwin: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher (Underdog)
Baldwin is having a sensational rookie season. In 26 games (19 starts) and 77 plate appearances this year, Baldwin has 24 hits, eight runs, 11 RBIs, a .338 batting average, .390 OBP, .563 slugging and .225 ISO. He should feast against Trevor Williams. Washington’s veteran hurler has coughed up a .301 batting average and .443 slugging to 244 lefties since 2024.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
