Fantasy baseball is all about the long game. Players you drafted early who struggle are not suddenly untalented bums who should be dropped to the waiver wire at a moment’s notice.
There is a method to the madness of this game and baseball as a whole. Slumps happen, and when a talented player gets out of one, they typically do so in a glorious manner.
We have to be patient unless something substantive, like injury or age concerns, becomes evident. Without either of the two, we are merely two months into a grueling, 162-game season, which can only be conquered through a diligent process.
Fantasy Baseball 10 Burning Questions
This week’s ’10 Burning Questions’ are below. For any questions or concerns, contact me on Twitter/X (@RotoSurgeon).
The Athletics’ rotation this season is one of the worst in the MLB, but they have found a diamond in the rough. Jacob Lopez has been dominant throughout June. He is the one bright spot on a depth chart that is suffering from the move to Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park.
Lopez has a 1.98 ERA and 3.44 xFIP in 27 and one-third innings since June 3. He has an incredible 38 strikeouts to just eight walks in this span while facing some tough offenses in Houston and Detroit.
One significant concern with Lopez, aside from the small sample of success, is his ground ball rate. Lopez induces a very low 20.2% ground ball rate. Extreme fly ball tendencies are often met with bad luck, primarily in the form of home runs. With the Athletics’ stadium this season ranking in the top three in offensive park factor and the top eight in adjusted home run rate, according to Statcast, it is best to avoid Lopez outside of deeper formats and points leagues.
2.) When will Bryce Harper return? Should we be concerned about his injury lingering?
According to the Phillies, Bryce Harper will return next Monday against the Padres at home. Harper has been shelved since June 6th with wrist inflammation. Hopefully, this extended period of rest was enough. Harper’s wrist has been a lingering issue, but he managed to play through it for most of this season without it impacting his strikeout rate or average. His home run power left some more to be desired, but Harper’s expected stats did not depict much change.
While Bryce Harper is a perennial MVP candidate, his body is slowly giving way to nagging injuries every year. Between his recent back issues, Tommy John surgery and this wrist injury, the 14-year veteran is showing more cracks in his armor. He should be fine for the rest of this season, but be careful drafting him in future seasons.
He is certainly back in the Major Leagues, but the 2024 version is still not here. Michael Toglia returned to the bigs two weeks ago and has hit three home runs with a .250 batting average in this span. His eight RBI and one stolen base are nice, yet his 33.3% strikeout rate is still too high in these 10 games.
Toglia’s 32.1% strikeout rate in 2024 was already worrisome, but he balanced it with an 11.8% walk rate. He has taken just two walks since his return and may not bounce back to form this season. Luckily, if he can sustain a strikeout rate closer to 30% than 40% (like his season before demotion), Toglia should remain in the lineup. If your fantasy team can stomach a near-.200 batting average, his power is worth a roster spot in deeper leagues.
4.) Who should we buy low?
Mike Trout is still one of the unluckiest batters in the league. Fantasy managers are likely frustrated with the future Hall of Famer despite his good, but not great, season thus far. Trout missed a month of action in May and hit just three home runs in June. His batting average since his return is a quality .291, but that is not translating to much run or RBI production thanks to the Angels’ mediocre offense. Luckily, a .276 expected batting average and .566 expected slugging rate suggest more positive regression is on the way. Buy while you can.
5.) Who should we sell high?
Byron Buxton is on a tear. He has nearly matched his 2024 home run total in 38 fewer games while amassing six more steals than last year as well. Unfortunately, he is still Byron Buxton, a player who struggles to make it through full baseball seasons. 2024 marked Buxton’s second-highest games played total with 102. Buxton averages 86 games per (full) season and is already at 64.
While there is no true hard cap on his ability to play games, something always comes up with him, and this start to the season is torrid enough to sell him high and get a more stable return.
6.) Who can we drop?
Zac Gallen is beyond repair for this season. His 5.75 ERA is too high to sell low, and his peripheral stats don’t suggest much regression, if any. Gallen’s 4.42 SIERA and 4.39 xFIP are mediocre while his 4.94 expected ERA is daming. He is accruing fewer strikeouts than ever while also walking the most batters since his rookie year.
Gallen’s velocity is around his career average, which makes this brutal season even more confusing. His home run rate is higher than ever, and so is the barrel rate given up. All of this mixed together is a pure recipe for disaster.
7.) Who should we stash?
Andrew Painter is reportedly ready for his debut and will be up soon after the All-Star break in mid-July. Painter is an elite prospect who did not post any Minor League stats between 2023 and 2024 due to elbow surgery. His Triple-A stats are not perfect, but there is no reason to panic. Painter posted a 4.25 ERA through 36 innings with a pedestrian 14.7% K-BB rate.
However, his 25.6% strikeout rate is positive while his walk rate is only somewhat elevated at 10.9%. Triple-A stats are often inflated for pitchers as the parks are notoriously hitter-friendly. Concerning walk rates and ERAs can be ignored if only slightly high with a quality strikeout rate.
Bubba Chandler was the hot name for most of this season as a pitcher stash, but his recent stretch of mediocrity is compounding and concerning. If you are still holding onto Chandler in redraft, move on.
8.) Will Max Muncy‘s re-breakout last?
As a Dodgers fan, I hope so. The Dodgers corrected Max Muncy’s cold start with corrective lensing. Muncy was diagnosed with an astigmatism in his right eye, which left the third baseman left eye dominant. He began wearing glasses during the week of April 28th and since then has been hitting .289 with a .566 slugging percentage. Thus far, Muncy’s 135 wRC+ matches his 2024 wRC+, which makes it safe to believe he is back.
All 12 of Muncy’s home runs this season have come since his diagnosis. With this, we can assume his power is back and should be maintained. The batting average boost is nice, but this is where his recent stretch becomes unsustainable. Muncy has never hit higher than .263, but could hover around his current .250. Nevertheless, he is a must-roster every day player in one of the league’s best offenses.
9.) How long should we hold Jac Caglianone?
The early returns on Jac Caglianone are rough. He has a .178 batting average, two home runs, three runs and four RBI through 20 career games. However, the underlying positives outweigh the surface-level negatives. Caglianone is only striking out at a 20% rate while posting a very unlucky .200 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Most importantly, Caglianone’s expected wOBA is a solid .350, well ahead of his .238 wOBA. Regression is coming for the Royals’ top prospect soon. Don’t let go for at least another month.
10.) Who is the Braves’ closer?
The Braves have two total saves converted since May 17th. Raisel Iglesias leads the team with nine saves, but his struggles this season have led us to this question. Late-inning reliever Dylan Lee is having a fantastic season and has two saves thus far, but is a lefty without a track record as a closer since 2019 within the Marlins’ Minor League system.
Pierce Johnson would be the logical alternative to Iglesias, yet the Braves continue to pitch him in mid-game situations or lower-leverage situations. The lack of trust in Johnson despite his 16 saves since 2023 is odd, but there may be something about him that the Braves do not trust.
Between Iglesias’ contract, six clean outings since June 9th and quality peripherals (xFIP and SIERA), he likely remains the primary closer moving forward unless another handful of blow-up innings occur.
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