4 Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid (2025)

With the NFL season just around the corner —believe it or not, the NFL Hall of Fame game is at the end of July — it’s time to start preparing for fantasy football drafts. Below, I’ll discuss fantasy football busts at each position to avoid as you start planning for all possible draft selection slots and scenarios, using average draft position (ADP) and 2024 points totals, courtesy of FantasyPros.

Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)

Patrick Mahomes is going as the QB6 in fantasy drafts, and while his No. 56 overall ADP isn’t all too egregious, I believe there’s better value elsewhere.

Last season, Mahomes finished as the QB10 with 293 points. He was the QB11 in points per game (PPG), averaging 18.3 points PPG.

Looking over his weekly totals, Mahomes finished with 20+ points just four times. Thankfully, two of those games were in the waning weeks of the season, so you got some good production with him if you found yourself deep in the playoffs.

The Chiefs’ offensive line this season is likely going to be in as rough shape, if not worse, than in 2024. I love the selection of left tackle Josh Simmons, but I’m slightly hesitant regarding his outlook due to his knee injury.

Other than that, the Chiefs’ weapons leave a bit to be desired. Tight end Travis Kelce is on his last legs, Marquise Brown played just two games last season and they don’t have a go-to No. 1 option.

I think Mahomes will be more than adequate, but coming off his first season with fewer than 4,000 passing yards and a tie for his career-low in single-season passing touchdowns, I’m not overly thrilled.

Perhaps Jalen Royals steps up and becomes a fantastic option for them, but still, this offensive line is worrisome.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

In PPR leagues, Breece Hall is going as the RB12 and 33rd overall.

While there’s generally a lack of running back talent, Hall is someone I’d be highly worried about drafting.

Last season, Hall finished as the RB18 in standard leagues and the RB16 in PPR leagues.

Hall had 209 carries for 876 yards and five touchdowns. In the passing game, he caught 57 passes for 483 yards and three scores.

That was with a pocket-passing-focused Aaron Rodgers at quarterback coming off an Achilles injury.

Justin Fields is the signal-caller now. In six starts with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Fields ran 62 times for 289 yards and five touchdowns. He did appear in four other games, but in those, he ran just seven times.

Fields averaged about nine carries per game.

Hall’s yards per carry have dropped each year of his career, going from 4.5 in 2023 to 4.2 in 2024. Unless he sees an abundance of targets, he’s likely a borderline RB2.

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)

This almost feels unbelievable to write, but I’m leaning toward being out on Tyreek Hill in 2025.

Last season, Hill caught 81 passes for 959 yards and six touchdowns.

Hill also had a spat with the team at the end of the season. It appears to have been resolved, and it’s more so an ancillary detail, but still, it’s out there.

As for his quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa has issues with concussions. They’re frightening, and besides that, when he doesn’t play, Hill suffers.

Tagovailoa played 11 games last season. If he misses more time, Hill will take a massive hit.

Hill will also turn 32 during the season. I don’t think he’s necessarily “slowing down,” per se, but he’s getting older, and with speed being a massive part of his game, coupled with an often-injured quarterback, there’s just too much variance.

Not to mention the Dolphins’ offensive line will likely flirt with bottom-third pass protection, which certainly won’t help.

If you’re able to get him closer to WR20 than his current WR15 fantasy football ADP, I’d consider it, but again, too many red flags here.

Travis Kelce (TE – KC)

Last year, I was all in on Travis Kelce busting. Thankfully for him, the Chiefs had so many issues with keeping receivers on the field that he benefited by recording nearly 100 catches.

Still, Kelce averaged just 8.5 yards per reception with only three touchdowns. Expect even less production this season.

There are too many red flags here, especially for a player who’ll turn 36 early in the season.

Kelce is going as the TE7 right now, which isn’t a horrible value given the other tight ends, but I’m probably going to try to address the position before Kelce and let someone else draft him.