Being this far out from the fantasy football season, there are going to be players who are flying under the radar and could be league winners. But it’s a two-way street, and there will also be overhyped players.
Below are a few examples of players with an average draft position (ADP) higher than it should be. Here are overvalued fantasy football draft picks to avoid.
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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) | ADP: QB6
While no one would argue that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a perennial MVP candidate, his fantasy value has taken a hit in recent years. After finishing as a top-five fantasy quarterback in four out of five seasons between 2018 and 2022, he was only eighth in fantasy scoring in 2023 before dipping to 12th last season. Despite being healthy the entire time, Mahomes has failed to top 30 passing touchdowns in three years, let alone 40 as he did in 2022.
What’s causing the statistical decline? Mahomes has yet to reach his 30s, so physically, he should be in his prime. Is the rest of the league figuring him out? That’s possible. But couple that with the talent, or lack thereof, the Chiefs have surrounded him with in the last few seasons, and it’s not unreasonable to assume it’s just getting harder for Mahomes to do what he does. When All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill first left the Chiefs after the 2021 season, tight end Travis Kelce initially carried the load, totaling over 1,300 receiving yards in 2022. But he’s seen a steady decline in production over the last two seasons as well. Kelce himself is 35 and could retire at any point. Outside of Kelce, the Chiefs have misfired.
There was 2023 second-round pick Rashee Rice, who, while productive on the field, has had issues off the field that put his availability into question. The same could be said of 2024 first-round pick Xavier Worthy, who also had a promising start to his career before his own legal issues.
With the recent influx of young quarterbacks to the pool of options, making Mahomes the sixth quarterback off the board seems high. Any Mahomes manager is hoping Kelce’s decline stops and that the two receivers drafted to carry Mahomes in the future can stay on the field, both of which are asking a lot. Let someone else draft Mahomes at his high fantasy football ADP this year and let them be disappointed.
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) | ADP: RB19
Chuba Hubbard has had one of the more surprising careers for recent running backs. After being drafted in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, Hubbard lingered in the background of the Carolina backfield. He saw a healthy amount of snaps in his rookie season, leading the team with 172 rush attempts, before taking a backseat to D’Onta Foreman in his sophomore season, all while filling in for the injured/traded Christian McCaffrey. He then took lead duties in 2023, during the disastrous rookie season of Bryce Young, but held on to that role in 2024 when the team improved, finishing as a top-15 fantasy running back.
Why is an RB19 ADP overvalued? For starters, Hubbard is coming off an injury that ended his 2024 season prematurely, and a lower-body injury at that. It wouldn’t have been a red flag except for the Panthers’ reaction to it. They signed one of the better running backs on the free agent market in Rico Dowdle and drafted Trevor Etienne in the fourth round. Suddenly, the Panthers have some decent depth behind Hubbard. It would make sense to distribute the carries so that Hubbard, who turns 26 this month and is coming off a lower-body injury, can carry less of a load. This makes an ADP of RB19 a risk.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) | ADP: WR13
Garrett Wilson has been a consistently strong wide receiver throughout his career. The former first-round pick has totaled 1,000+ yards in each of his first three seasons and topped 100+ receptions for the first time last year. Wilson hasn’t exactly been given an easy task, working with no less than six different starting quarterbacks in that span, jumping from the disaster that was Zach Wilson to the catastrophe that was Aaron Rodgers. But in all that time, he’s never had a top-13 fantasy finish. Now he’ll have another starting quarterback and, to add to the level of difficulty, a new coaching staff. The latter has more promise than the former.
The Jets signed Justin Fields to be their starting quarterback, who will be on his third team since being drafted by Chicago in 2021. Coincidentally, the same draft the Jets selected Zach Wilson. Fields has never been known for his throwing prowess, averaging just 155 passing yards per game throughout his career, and never throwing for more than 17 touchdowns in a season as a full-time starter in Chicago. He looked better in Pittsburgh last year, but still threw for just five touchdowns in six games. Fields has supported a fantasy WR1 before when DJ Moore had his best season under him. But Moore was also the only playmaker on that 2023 Bears team, unlike the Jets, who have running back Breece Hall waiting to lead a more run-heavy approach with Fields.
If anyone is going to unlock Fields’ passing ability, and subsequently Wilson’s fantasy hopes, it’s the new coaching staff. New head coach Aaron Glenn and offense coordinator Tanner Engstrand are both coming over from Detroit, and no one needs a reminder of how well the Lions’ offense has been in the last few seasons. They were effective in both the running and passing game and created fantasy studs all over the place.
While it’s unlikely the Jets can duplicate the Lions’ offensive success, there’s a very good chance Wilson leads the Jets again in receiving. But that doesn’t mean he’s going to lead your fantasy team.
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET) | ADP: TE4
For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. The departure of former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will affect Detroit’s offense, especially tight end Sam LaPorta. The now-third-year second-round pick set rookie tight end records just two seasons ago, totaling 889 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on his way to being the top-scoring tight end in all of fantasy. Expectations were understandably high last year, so to see his numbers decline was a disappointment. He totaled just 726 yards and seven touchdowns to finish as fantasy’s sixth-highest-scoring tight end.
It’s a bit of a surprise to see him as the fourth tight end off the board when A) his numbers have declined and B) the play-calling wizard who led the offense isn’t there anymore. It’s not like new offensive coordinator John Morton is providing a lot of hope, as his only experience was as the offensive coordinator for the Jets eight years ago, where the team finished in the lowest quarter of the league in both yards and points.
This year may be a course correction for the Lions’ offense, and that includes LaPort, who profiles more as a lower-end TE1 on fantasy teams instead of a top-four option.
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