8 Fantasy Football Busts: Running Backs (2025)

As you prepare for your fantasy football drafts, avoiding early-round mistakes is just as important as hitting on league-winning picks. That’s why we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros experts to help you sidestep potential landmines at two of the most critical positions: running back and wide receiver. In this article, our experts identify their top early running backs fantasy football busts, players who may be overvalued based on current ADP and could fail to deliver the return you’re expecting. Before you lock in your first few picks, make sure you’re not drafting someone who could sink your season.

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Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid: Running Backs

What running backs in our consensus top 24 should fantasy football managers fear the most as potential busts?

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

“Miami Dolphins De’Von Achane’s 2025 ADP places him as a high-end RB1, often drafted in the late first or early second round, which sets lofty expectations for consistent production. His 2024 season showed a stark contrast in performance, averaging 20.9 PPR points per game with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback but only 6.9 without him, highlighting his dependency on a healthy quarterback. The Miami Dolphins’ offensive line, which had the sixth-lowest run-blocking grade in 2024, could continue to hinder his rushing efficiency, as evidenced by his drop from 7.8 yards per carry in 2023 to 4.6 in 2024. Competition from backups like Jaylen Wright and potentially Alexander Mattison or Ollie Gordon II may reduce his touches, especially in short-yardage or third-down situations where his smaller frame (5’9″, 188 lbs) has struggled, converting only 9 of 17 runs for first downs in 2024. These factors-quarterback dependency, a weak offensive line, and backfield competition-combined with his injury history (six games missed in 2023), make Achane a risky pick at his current ADP due to potential inconsistency and limited workload.”
– Brandon Murchison (RotoBaller)

James Cook (RB – BUF)

“James Cook (RB14 in the rankings and 35th overall) finished last season as the RB8, averaging 15.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, fantasy football players should be nervous about drafting him as a high-end RB2. He had four rushing touchdowns and five receiving scores over his first two years in the NFL. By comparison, Cook had 16 rushing touchdowns and two receiving scores last season, leading the league in rushing touchdowns. More importantly, he saw 30 fewer rushing attempts than the season before and had 43.1% of his fantasy production come from reaching the end zone. Cook’s a clear-cut touchdown regression candidate. Furthermore, the star running back and the Bills are in the middle of messy contract talks, which could lead to a holdout. I would rather draft Kenneth Walker III (RB16) and RJ Harvey (RB24) over Cook.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

“Among the consensus top 24 running backs for 2025 Half PPR leagues, James Cook (RB14) stands out as a notable bust candidate. His performance relies heavily on volume in Buffalo’s high-powered offense, but his inconsistent workload and limited goal-line carries raise concerns. James Cook‘s bust potential is further amplified by his reliance on big plays, as his 4.4 yards per carry in 2024 suggests modest efficiency. The Bills’ backfield could also see increased competition from emerging talents like Ray Davis, who may steal valuable carries. If Buffalo’s offense shifts toward a more pass-heavy approach, Cook’s fantasy football value could take a significant hit.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)

“Stay away from James Cook! While he posted a strong 2024 on the surface, his fantasy value was propped up by 16 rushing touchdowns- his previous high was 6. Maybe even more concerning is that Cook’s route participation dropped from 45.9% in 2023 to just 27.4% in 2024, as the Bills leaned on Ty Johnson on passing downs, limiting his PPR upside. He’s also holding out of OTAs— wanting a new contract worth 15 Mil per season. With James’ declining pass-game involvement, touchdown volatility, and potential holdout, Cook is a risky pick at his current RB1/RB2 borderline ADP.”
– James Emrick-Wilson (Armchair Scouting)

“James Cook is coming off a massive 18 total touchdown season and has been vocal about wanting to be paid as a top back. There has been some speculation that if a contract isn’t agreed upon, he could miss regular-season time. Combine that with Josh Allen‘s featured goal-line role and a talented backup running back in Ray Davis pushing for playing time, if Cook can’t match his touchdown production from a year ago, fantasy football owners are likely to be disappointed in 2025.”
– Lee Wehry (FantasyPros)

James Conner (RB – ARI)

“James Conner has managed to produce despite the circumstances, retain his role despite competition on the team, and defy father time. He’ll be 30 this season, so I expect some regression, and his 2024 passing numbers seem like an exception given the team’s status and something sustainable for this season. Trey Benson should have a more active role in his second year.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)

David Montgomery (RB – DET)

“”Bust” is a strong word, but David Montgomery has obstacles in his path to justifying his ECR of RB20. The biggest of those obstacles is Jahmyr Gibbs, who’s proven to be one of the most talented RBs in the league. Montgomery has averaged 16.8 and 15.8 touches a game in Gibbs’ first two seasons. Gibbs and Montgomery combined to average more than 33 touches a game in 2024. I’ll bet the under on 33 touches a game for Detroit RBs in 2025, and I’ll bet the under on 15.8 touches a game for Montgomery. We could also see a dip in Montgomery’s TD total. He’s scored 13 and 12 touchdowns the last two years, as the Lions ranked first and fifth in scoring those two seasons. If the Lions scale back Montgomery’s usage to give Gibbs more snaps, or if the Detroit offense has hiccups after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears, Monty’s TD total could slip. He’s a quality running back, but I see Montgomery as more of a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 than midrange RB2.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)

“It feels like Groundhog Day all over again – another offseason, another round of analysts fading Kyren Williams. But this year, the concerns are more justified, in the last year of William’s rookie contract. Despite a monster workload in 2024 (nearly 400 touches, 87% snap share, both second to only Saquon Barkley), Williams was wildly inefficient – ranking near the bottom in explosive run rate, missed tackles, and YAC per attempt (akin to Najee Harris‘ numbers in 2024) with fumbles to boot. The Rams spent legit draft capital on Blake Corum in 2023 (who Sean McVay thinks is a stud) and Jarquez Hunter in 2024 (who the Rams traded up for) while publicly embracing the NFL trends of a more committee-driven backfield approach this offseason. Williams could still deliver RB1 numbers on sheer volume alone, but if that volume even slightly dips, it will be tough for him to live up to his ADP.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

“I’ll be avoiding Kyren Williams at his RB11 price tag. His stranglehold on volume could come to an end with the addition of the explosive Jarquez Hunter to this backfield. In 2025, Williams ranked first in snap share, second in opportunity share, and first in red zone touches. Last year, Williams was wretchedly inefficient. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Blake Corum was similarly mediocre on a per-touch basis. Hunter has the juice to earn the RB2 role and significantly cut into Williams’ workload in 2025. When that happens, Williams will come tumbling down to the RB2/3 ranks.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)

“Chuba Hubbard carries significant bust potential in 2025 due to the Panthers’ increasingly crowded backfield, where he must compete with Rico Dowdle and rookie Trevor Etienne for touches. Despite rushing for 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns last season, his role is uncertain as Carolina shifts toward a more aggressive passing attack, fueled by Bryce Young‘s anticipated year 2 leap. The arrival of rookie wide receivers Tetairoa McMillan and Jimmy Horn Jr. suggests the team is focusing on expanding its aerial offense, which could reduce Hubbard’s opportunities. Even though he has been productive on a per-touch basis, his workload may diminish if he loses goal-line duties or third-down snaps. Fantasy managers banking on RB1 production could find themselves disappointed this season.”
– Lawrence Iacona (Gridiron Experts)

Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)

“Kenneth Walker III – The Sam Darnold, I know and love, finally showed up last year and saw ghosts in the playoffs, when the Vikings got smoked by the Rams in Arizona, even with a partisan Vikings’ crowd cheering them on. Seattle coughed up $100 million for Darnold, which is a huge gamble considering how bad he looked in the playoffs. Without the stout Vikings’ defense, offensive line, and weather-controlled climate to support him, I think Darnold will find the going to be a lot tougher in Seattle. That’s bad news for the Seahawks’ offense, where Kenneth Walker III needs a lot of TDs to justify his current, lofty ranking at RB 16. And when you factor in that Walker III might have to cede some snaps to teammate Zach Charbonnet, this fantasy pie slice is simply too small for Mark Ringo’s big appetite.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

“Kenneth Walker III may sit at 16th in the consensus top 24, but he carries significant bust potential heading into the 2025 season. Despite Klint Kubiak’s zone-heavy scheme seemingly suiting his running style, Walker faces a perfect storm of red flags: a new system to learn in a contract year, a concerning injury history, and one of the NFL’s worst run-blocking offensive lines. He’ll also compete with Zach Charbonnet, who fits the scheme well and could steal passing-down and red-zone work. With Sam Darnold leading what’s expected to be a struggling offense, touchdown opportunities will be scarce. All signs point to a frustrating RBBC situation with a capped ceiling for Walker.”
– Avery Thrasher (The Branded Sports)

Chase Brown (RB – CIN)

“One player that I was all in on last year, I am nervous about drafting this year, and that is Chase Brown. Brown finished as the RB14 in FPPG last year, but his FPPG pace when Zach Moss was on the field would have been good for RB32. Tahj Brooks, whom the Bengals selected in the 6th round, had more MTF than Ashton Jeanty during the 2023 season. Brooks is also a natural pass catcher. There is a chance that Brown could be a high-end RB2 again, but there is also a solid chance that he is splitting time when everyone on the roster is healthy, which caps his ceiling.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)