Just as Zero RB had undergone a reputational glow-up a year ago, it all came crumbling back down. In 2023, Zero RB teams won millions of dollars in best ball, but it was quite possibly the worst strategy to implement in 2024. To be fair, the warning signs were there to be seen.
However, is Zero RB primed to massively bounce back and win best ball championships once more? There are reasons to believe that might be the case.
Best Ball Draft Strategy & Advice: Zero RB
Let’s take a closer look at how to utilize the Zero RB strategy when constructing your best ball rosters.
Zero RB Basics
The name Zero RB is a little more extreme than the reality, with Late-Round RB perhaps being a more accurate term. The essence of the strategy is to stock up on elite wide receivers in the early rounds, and possibly an elite tight end and quarterback, too, avoiding the most injury-prone position in fantasy football.
Historically, the running back position has been one we’ve viewed through the lens that is more susceptible to injuries, but in the last couple of years, things have started to change.
If we look at wide receivers and running backs from the top 50 average draft position (ADP) of Underdog’s Best Ball Mania contest, we can see that while running backs haven’t improved in their health, wide receivers in this range have been missing more time.
While 2023 wasn’t a bad year for early running backs, with Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Tony Pollard all staying healthy, they just largely disappointed outside of McCaffrey. It was a softer blow to take, though, with Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp all missing time, too.
In 2024, McCaffrey was abysmal for best ball with a 4% advance rate, the single-lowest rate in all of best ball. Outside of McCaffrey, Breece Hall was the only other back drafted in the top 24 to finish worse than RB9, with him finishing as the RB18. Meanwhile, at receiver, 14 were drafted in the first two rounds, and exactly half of them finished outside the top 20, with three finishing below WR43.
Zero RB Intricacies
Heading into a draft with a predetermined strategy is the last thing that we should plan to do, but it doesn’t hurt to try these strategies out in lower-stakes drafts to decide how comfortable they feel. If you’ve been drafting early best ball contests, you’ll be plenty familiar with the wide receiver dead zone that occurs after pick 96.
Once Michael Pittman goes off the board at 96, there are only three wide receivers drafted in the next 17 picks, and only 11 are picked between 96 and 150. If you start a draft running back heavy, there’s a very real chance you could end up in a world of wide receiver pain and rely on guys in this range to drastically outplay their expectations.
Instead, with a Zero RB build, we’ll load up early with the difference-making wide receivers, who have high ceilings and consistent workloads, before pivoting to the running back position in round seven and beyond.
Keys to Success
The key with a Zero RB build, despite the name, is nailing the running backs you do draft. Across 2021-2024 in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania, you can see how teams that selected their first running back in round six or later fared:
| Number of RBs |
2021 Advance Rate |
2022 Advance Rate |
2023 Advance Rate |
2024 Advance Rate |
| 3 |
N/A |
5.40% |
9.40% |
2.50% |
| 4 |
10.50% |
19.50% |
13.50% |
6.60% |
| 5 |
13.70% |
23.20% |
18.80% |
8.00% |
| 6 |
15.30% |
24.50% |
21.10% |
8.70% |
| 7 |
20.70% |
23.20% |
21.50% |
8.60% |
| 8 |
N/A |
21.10% |
20.10% |
7.40% |
(Data via RotoViz’s Roster Construction Explorer tool)
Advance rate is measured to a baseline of 16.7%, which we get from dividing 100 by the number of teams in a draft (12), and then multiplying that by the number of teams who advance to the playoffs (two).
Zero RB was a poor strategy in 2021, unless you took seven or more running backs, in which case it was an excellent strategy. We rarely want to take a light approach to the running back position in Zero RB builds anyhow, as we’re aiming to make up for quality in quantity.
Part of the reason for low advance rates in lighter builds would likely be down to the top 24 running backs largely coming from high-end running backs on the whole. In that year, 13 of the top 24 backs had an ADP of 40 or higher, and only four came from pick 85 or later.
It was an excellent year for the strategy in 2022, with the majority of builds 3-5% above the average advance rate of 16.7%. This kick-started the thirst for wide receiver-heavy drafting. The following year saw 14 wideouts drafted in the first 24 picks, and only eight running backs.
Again, strong numbers were possible, but there were hints of a downward trend, perhaps in part due to backs being pushed down the board becoming better values. The overall winners of both the DraftKings Milly Maker and Underdog’s Best Ball Mania contests were both Zero RB teams, taking home millions of dollars thanks to the tactic.
Then came 2024, and everything crashed back down to Earth. Of the first 36 picks, 24 were wide receivers, compared to only 11 running backs. While the backs thrived, particularly veteran running backs who Zero RB purists felt strongly weren’t good values.
Simply put, drafting a Zero RB team made it twice as difficult to make the playoffs compared to the average advance rate. Of course, one could say that we want teams to be dissimilar to the chalkiest builds to give us a better chance of differentiating in the playoffs. The simple truth, however, comes back to how Zero RB performed horribly in 2024, and the losses must be accepted.
2025 Outlook
With all of that said, where are we standing with Zero RB in 2025? There’s reason to believe a far rosier outcome is likely. First, fewer wide receivers are being drafted as early, and more running backs are being drafted at the top. This will keep the quality of wide receivers higher throughout the draft board, rather than things being too top-heavy like they were in 2024.
Zero RB relies on quality at wide receiver, and in 2024, due to the overall thirst, you were drafting players as your WR3 who in years gone by would have been worth WR4 or WR5 costs. With things resetting slightly, it should allow for better quality receiver rooms.
One other huge factor also stands out, and that’s the quality of the incoming rookie running back class. Typically, we see rookies start to earn bigger roles down the back half of the season. This year, there were 12 running backs drafted within the first four rounds and 13 more in the remaining late rounds.
If this class is as good as it’s been hyped up to be, it seems inevitable that some of the running backs make sizeable and fantasy-worthy contributions this year. Four backs are being drafted within the first 72 picks, which leaves a lot of other rookie running backs available later that fit perfectly into Zero RB builds.
Zero RB Traits
The type of RB selected is as important as the balance of picks dedicated to running backs. We can break these down into the following categories:
- Ambiguous backfields: In 2023, taking shots on Miami’s backfield proved to be a very profitable venture, as did Jaylen Warren, Devin Singletary and Gus Edwards. In 2024, Bucky Irving, Brian Robinson and D’Andre Swift also helped Zero RB teams thanks to ambiguity.
- Pass-catchers: Even in Underdog’s half-PPR scoring format, pass-catching running backs without a three-down role can have spike weeks that help the position stay serviceable while your wide receivers dominate.
- Play for good teams: It feels a little obvious to say, but good teams tend to score more points, and we want exposure to those points.
- Ability to become a workhorse in the event of injury: Players like Zach Charbonnet, Chuba Hubbard and Tony Pollard were all running backs who could provide stand-alone value but could also become top-24 options should the backs ahead of them suffer an injury or pick up a suspension. Players who don’t catch passes have a smaller shot at greatness because they’ll still need to leave the field periodically.
- Rookies: As we already touched on, this year’s rookie class could be even more important than ever for Zero RB teams.
Zero RB went mainstream in 2024, on the back of million-dollar success stories, but it failed miserably. Because of that, we can likely expect some people to veer away from it substantially.
A total of 21% of entrants in last year’s contest waited until after round five to draft their first running back, as we can see in the table below. That was by far the most popular the strategy has been in the last four years. If we see it regress heavily in 2025, it could once again pay to zig when others zag.
|
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
|
|
| Zero RB |
4.32% |
6.72% |
9.57% |
21.12% |
|
No RB until Round 6 |
| Hero RB |
85.85% |
76.99% |
53.26% |
50.92% |
|
1 RB in Rounds 1 & 2 |
| Robust RB |
14.31% |
10.12% |
5.17% |
2.41% |
|
RB3 before Round 5 |
(Data via RotoViz’s Advance Rate Explorer tool)
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