Most players are viable fantasy football options at a certain point in drafts. However, the following two players are potential landmines at their respective fantasy football average draft positions (ADP) in half-point per reception (half PPR) formats.
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Fantasy Football Landmines: Overvalued Players at ADP
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND): 19.5 ADP/RB8
Jonathan Taylor undoubtedly has a high weekly ceiling. In addition, in his five years in the NFL, Taylor has finished as the RB8 in half PPR points per game (15.7) in 2020 among running backs who played more than three games, the RB2 (20.8) in 2021, tied for the RB24 (11) in 2022, the RB8 (14.7) in 2023 and the RB5 (16.8) in 2024. So, Taylor has finished worse than the RB8 in half PPR points per game — his current ADP — only once in his career.
His ADP doesn’t seem outrageous from that perspective. Sadly, Taylor has also missed games every year except 2021, missing one in 2020, six in 2022, seven in 2023 and three in 2024. More alarmingly, Taylor’s gone from an underwhelming contributor in the passing attack to nearly a complete non-factor.
According to Pro Football Reference, Taylor had career-lows for receptions per game (1.3) and receiving yards per game (9.7) in 2024, his second straight season with fewer than two receptions per game and third straight with fewer than 16 receiving yards per game. Taylor’s underlying receiving data is also dreadful. Per the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 84 running backs with at least 50 routes in the regular season last year, Taylor was 39th in target share (7.4%) and tied for 74th in targets per route run (0.13). Taylor’s receiving outlook is unlikely to significantly improve this year with mobile quarterbacks Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson — if his injured shoulder doesn’t keep him out — competing for Indy’s starting quarterback gig.
As a result, Taylor’s value is tied to his rushing, making him game-script dependent and reducing his weekly floor. The betting info for the Colts doesn’t paint a favorable picture for Taylor’s weekly game scripts. Their consensus win total is only 7.5, and their consensus line is -200 to miss the playoffs. Bad teams can produce fantasy-relevant running backs, and running backs can have big fantasy seasons without making waves in the passing attack. However, trying to thread the needle with a non-pass-catching running back on a losing team is an unnecessary risk in the second round of 12-team half PPR leagues.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ): 26.0 ADP/WR13
The annual Garrett Wilson hype cycle appears to be in full swing already, with an ADP at the beginning of the third round. His ADP among wide receivers makes him the top WR2, meaning many drafters are likely selecting him as their WR1. Obviously, getting ahead of a breakout can be fruitful, and gamers who always wait to see a player maximize their potential will never get the full value of those who take calculated risks on enticing youngsters before they explode.
Nevertheless, at some point, the hype exceeds the reality for a player, and Wilson might be the poster child for that. We don’t always have to overcomplicate things in fantasy football. Among wideouts who’ve played more than four games in each of the respective following seasons, Wilson was tied for the WR30 in half PPR points per game (10.2) in 2022, tied for the WR38 in half PPR points per game (9.7) in 2023 and tied for the WR22 in half PPR points per game (11.8) in 2024. He was a low-end WR2 in 12-team leagues in a career-year with Aaron Rodgers last year, a WR3 in 2023 and a WR4 in 2022.
Wilson’s apologists excused his lackluster performances in 2022 and 2023 because he had dreadful quarterbacks slinging him the ball. It was supposed to all come together for him with Rodgers last year. Instead, the Jets traded for Davante Adams. Adams ascended to the Batman role, relegating Wilson to his Robin. Wilson is the big fish in a small pond again, lacking meaningful target competition. However, Justin Fields is a shaky quarterback whose most significant asset is his legs, something defensive-minded head coach Aaron Glenn will likely look to utilize with a run-heavy approach. Fields hasn’t been an ideal signal-caller for fantasy value for wide receivers. The following table has the receiving numbers from the data suite at Fantasy Points for Fields’ highest-scoring wide receiver in his starts and Wilson’s stats through his first three seasons.
One of these things is not like the other. One of these things is D.J. Moore‘s outlier 2023 season. Wilson and Fields’ non-Moore top wideouts have underperformed their expected half-PPR scoring yearly. Despite robust roles, the non-Moore wideouts on the table didn’t perform anywhere near where Wilson is being drafted. I’ll let someone else wishcast a high-end fantasy season from Wilson and tip my cap to them if he delivers.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
