Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate starts at 7:05 p.m. ET at DraftKings and FanDuel and has 12 games. The suggested pick ’em choices from Underdog are also from the 12-game slate.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet 
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Friday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs. SF
According to FanGraphs, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 2.78 xERA is the lowest among tonight’s probable starters. The righty’s 2.20 ERA is the third-lowest, 2.81 xFIP is the third-lowest and 3.01 SIERA is the third-lowest on tonight’s slate, too. So, no matter how you slice his ERA and ERA estimators, Yamamoto has been elite this season. He also has a 1.00 WHIP and 29.6 K%, making him a DFS stud.
Yamamoto has a plus matchup tonight. The Giants are 22nd in wRC+ (98) with a 22.1 K% versus righties and tied for 23rd in wRC+ (88) with a 25.4 K% on the road in 2025. Moreover, Yamamoto is drawing the Giants in their first game after a series at Coors Field. Finally, the Dodgers are -169, and the game’s total is 7.5 runs.
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs. COL
Bryce Elder is also facing a team after a series at Coors Field. Obviously, that means Elder is facing the Rockies in Atlanta, and Colorado’s offense is literally dead last in three critical splits. The Rockies are 30th in wRC+ (73) versus righties, on the road (58) and in the previous 30 days (73). They also had 25.6%, 27.6% and 25.8% strikeout rates in those splits, respectively.
Elder is also entering tonight’s start in good form. In his previous three starts spanning 19.1 innings, he’s had the following stats.
- 2.33 ERA
- 2.56 xFIP
- 2.80 SIERA
- 0.93 WHIP
- Two quality starts
- 5.5 BB%
- 26.0 K%
- 56.3 GB%
- 90 stuff+
- 109 location+
- 107 pitching+
Unsurprisingly, the Braves are -285, and the game’s total is 9.0 runs.
Luis Severino (ATH) at KC
Luis Severino is smashing on the road this year. In five starts spanning 31 innings on the road this season, Severino has a 0.87 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 6.5 BB% and 16.1 K%. The veteran righty’s 4.25 xFIP suggests he’s been quite lucky in road starts. Still, Severino has encouraging pitch-modeling data this year, possibly helping to explain the sizable gap to a degree.
Severino has a superb matchup tonight. The Royals are 26th in wRC+ (89) with a 17.9 K% versus righties and 30th in wRC+ (72) with a 17.5 K% at home this season. While Severino lacks strikeout potential tonight, he can make up for that by pitching deep into the game via quicker outs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Jack Kochanowicz has the third-highest xERA (5.02), the third-highest xFIP (4.85) and the second-highest SIERA (4.95) among tonight’s probable pitchers, and he combines an underwhelming 15.9 K% with a pitiful 11.0 BB%. He’ll have his work cut out for him at Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight. According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the third-highest park factor for runs (123) and park factors of 102 for singles, 113 for doubles, 135 for triples and an MLB-high 157 for homers.
- Home (Truist Park)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/ATL -285
German Marquez is a tire fire. His 7.00 ERA is the highest on the slate, and his 5.08 xERA, 4.87 xFIP and 4.87 SIERA are also dreadful. Since last season, Marquez has coughed up a .390 wOBA to 167 lefties and a .379 wOBA to righties. The Braves should light him up tonight.
Core Studs
- Gunnar Henderson has had a .361 OBP, .263 ISO and 156 wRC+ against righties since 2023.
- Matt Olson has had a .374 OBP, .265 ISO and 143 wRC+ against righties since 2023.
- In 281 plate appearances this season, Marcell Ozuna has belted 10 bombs with 31 runs, 30 RBIs, a .395 OBP, .164 ISO, .365 wOBA, .392 expected wOBA (xwOBA) and 134 wRC+.
Value Plays/Punts
- Drake Baldwin has five homers, a .330 OBP, .176 ISO and 121 wRC+ in 115 plate appearances against righties in his rookie season.
- In 563 career plate appearances against righties since reaching The Show in 2023, Jordan Westburg has hit 21 homers with a .306 OBP, .208 ISO and 118 wRC+.
- Ramon Laureano has hit seven homers with 15 runs, 15 RBIs, two stolen bases, a.326 OBP, .241 ISO and 134 wRC+ in 129 plate appearances this season.
Friday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Charlie Morton: 4.5 Strikeouts – Higher (0.82x)
In Charlie Morton’s last three starts, he’s had a 3.60 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 3.94 SIERA, 24.3 K%, 10.20 K/9 and 17 strikeouts in 15 innings, clearing 4.5 strikeouts in all three. Morton has a great matchup for strikeouts tonight. The Angels have the highest strikeout rate (26.0 K%) versus righties and the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.0 K%) on the road this season. They’ve also had the second-highest strikeout rate (25.2 K%) in the previous 30 days.
Gunnar Hendeson: 8.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Henderson is a monster with the platoon advantage in his renovated home ballpark. In 81 plate appearances against righties at home this season, Henderson has hit four homers with a .407 OBP, .284 ISO, .445 wOBA and 195 wRC+.
Matt Olson: 8.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Olson is outstanding at home with the platoon advantage. In 630 plate appearances against righties at home since 2023, Olson has mashed 40 taters with a .379 OBP, .283 ISO, .396 wOBA and 152 wRC+. Meanwhile, Marquez isn’t just a victim of his hitter-friendly home ballpark. He’s allowed a .382 wOBA to 86 lefties on the road this season.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
