The most likely candidates to finish as fantasy football RB1s — top-12 running backs — in half-point per reception (half PPR) leagues in 2025 will have their club’s goal-line gig, the passing-down work or, ideally, both roles. Running backs who play for winning teams that award them positive game scripts, high-scoring clubs that provide touchdown potential or those that check both boxes have the highest probability of finishing as RB1s. The forthcoming two running backs are veterans with blemishes. Yet, they’re also running backs selected from RB25 to RB36 in half PPR average draft position (ADP) with the potential to crack the top 12 among their peers. Here are two running backs who could jump a few tiers from where they are being selected in fantasy football drafts.
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RB3s With RB1 Upside (Fantasy Football)
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN): 75.0 ADP/RB25
Aaron Jones will have a more competent backfield mate this year than last after the team traded for Jordan Mason. Still, including the postseason in 2024, Jones handled 268 of the backfield’s 438 rush attempts (61.2%). He left one contest early but played in all 17 games for the second time in the previous three years.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Jones had 65% of Minnesota’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line and had the 13th-highest route participation rate (47.5%) among running backs in 2024. Mason is a bruising runner, making him a logical choice to handle goal-line and short-yardage rushing situations. However, he turned nine rush attempts inside the five-yard line into three yards and two touchdowns last year, which doesn’t scream a no-brainer pick for goal-line work in 2025. In fairness, Jones had negative two yards and three touchdowns on 13 carries inside the five-yard line last year, but added two targets for zero yards and a receiving touchdown. Jones’s receiving prowess could get him the nod near the end zone over his new running mate if both running backs are inefficient as short-yardage runners.
Speaking of Jones’s receiving chops, he had stellar receiving numbers among the 86 running backs with at least 50 routes in the regular season and the playoffs last year. He was 11th in target share (11.1%), tied for 26th in targets per route run (0.21), 12th in targets per game (3.6), tied for sixth in receptions (54), 12th in receiving yards per game (23.3), tied for 33rd in yards per route run (1.31) and tied for 13th in receiving touchdowns (two).
Jones was 20th in half PPR points per game (12.7) but 16th in total half PPR points (216.1) last year. He was on the fringes of an RB1 finish in 2024 by total points, and a little more good fortune in the touchdown department could get him there in 2025. Finally, Jones has an RB1 finish in total half PPR points and average half PPR points per game as recently as 2022, finishing as the RB9 in total (219.1) and tied for the RB11 in points per game (12.9).
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI): 82.5 ADP/RB28
I’ve never been D’Andre Swift’s biggest fan in reality or fantasy football. Regardless, volume is the king at running back, and he might have it at his disposal in 2025. Despite draft pundits sending a first or second-round running back to the Bears in the NFL Draft, they used their first two picks on pass-catching weapons. Chicago didn’t draft a running back until making Kyle Monangai the 22nd running back selected with the 17th pick in the seventh round. Only three running backs were picked after Monangai.
Swift also ducked a meaningful addition to Chicago’s backfield via free agency or a trade. There is more than a non-zero chance the Bears scoop up a roster cut-down casualty at running back or trade for someone, such as Travis Etienne. In fact, I think there’s a higher probability of that than with most backfields. Swift is the top dog in the backfield for now, though.
Swift struggled to avoid nicks and dings as Detroit’s running back from 2020-2022, missing three games as a rookie in 2020, four in 2021 and three in 2022. Still, Swift had 878, 1,069 and 931 scrimmage yards in his three seasons with the Lions, splashing paydirt 10, seven and eight times.
Swift has missed only one game and zero games in two subsequent seasons, tallying 1,263 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns for the Eagles in 2023 and 1,345 and six for the Bears last year. As a result, Swift was the RB23 in total half PPR points (179.8) and tied for the RB24 in half PPR points per game (11.2) in 2023 and the RB19 in total half PPR points (193.5) and the RB21 in half PPR points per game (11.4) among running backs who played more than one game in 2024.
Swift proved he could handle large workloads without breaking down those seasons, with 282 touches (239 rush and 43 receptions) in 2023 — including the playoffs — and 295 (253 and 42) in 2024. Swift’s value was undercut by Jalen Hurts in 2023 and Chicago’s offensive ineptitude in 2024. Hurts led the Eagles in rush rate inside the five-yard line (47.1%) in 2023, leaving Swift with just 41.2% of the attempts inside the five-yard line. According to Pro Football Reference, the Bears were 32nd in yards per play (4.5) and tied for 28th in scoring offense (18.2).
Caleb Williams doesn’t provide Swift with a tush-push vulture, and new head coach Ben Johnson is a well-regarded offensive guru after three years as Detroit’s offensive coordinator. The Bears also invested in the offensive line and pass-catching weapons in the offseason, hoping to lift their offense out of the doldrums.
The Lions ran the ball often and effectively under Johnson’s tutelage. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Lions were tied for the 12th-highest situation-neutral rush rate (46%) from 2022 to 2024. Last year, the Lions were tied for the eighth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (48%).
Johnson’s offenses in Detroit were a fantasy football treasure trove for scoring by running backs. The following table has the half-PPR scoring and ranks for Detroit’s running backs during Johnson’s three-year tenure as the offensive coordinator for the Lions.
Jahmyr Gibbs is an elite running back with home-run speed, and David Montgomery is probably a more skilled running back than Swift. Johnson also doesn’t get to bring Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and Detroit’s offensive line with him to the Bears, and I’m admittedly skeptical of Williams. Still, again, the Bears invested in the trenches and the weapons in the offseason, and Jamaal Williams was just a guy (JAG) and had an RB1 finish in Johnson’s offense in 2022. It doesn’t take a vivid imagination for Swift to stay healthy, pile up touches and crack the top-12 running backs in fantasy football leagues in 2025.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
