After 2023, when WR-heavy fantasy football draft strategies were dominant, 2024 was like an ice bucket to the face for those who leaned into the strategies. Running backs were back in a big way and wide receivers faltered. But is that the whole story? Or were Zero RB drafters closer to hitting big than we might remember? Let’s get into it properly.
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Was WR-Heavy Fantasy Football Effective in 2024?
2023 Success
While 2023 wasn’t an awful year for early-round running backs, most of the top players like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson stayed healthy, but only McCaffrey averaged over 15 half-PPR points per game (PPG), while six different receivers managed this from the first couple of rounds.
What helped WR-heavy drafters was the success of later-round running backs, with Kyren Williams having seven games of 20+ points. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane had five each, and Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco both had four. Hitting on a combination of two of those players made it very easy to succeed.
While redraft is drastically different from best ball, it’s worth mentioning that Underdog’s Best Ball Mania contest, one of the biggest contests around, was won by a team with a pure Zero RB strategy, netting them a cool $2 million. Likewise, DraftKings’ Milly Maker winner didn’t select a running back until Aaron Jones in the sixth round. This was all part of the excitement that led to things getting out of hand in 2024.
2024 Results
The wide receiver demand led to only 14 running backs being drafted in the first 50 picks of best ball sites in 2024, and while redraft average draft position (ADP) is different, there are still only 17 drafted there, a continuation of a trend where there were 19 in 2023 and 22 in 2022. This trend emerged as drafters pointed towards running back fragility being a reason to avoid them.
In 2022, the average number of games played by running backs drafted in the top 50 picks was 13.75, with only two players playing fewer than 13 games. In 2023, that improved slightly to 13.9, and again, only two backs played fewer than 13 games. In 2024, the average games played decreased slightly to 13.5, but again, only two ballcarriers missed significant time and played below 13 games.
Meanwhile, at wide receiver, 13.92 was the average number of games played in 2022 by receivers in the top 50, with seven players below 13 games. In 2023, the average jumped to 13.96, with five below the 13-game line. In 2024, eight players missed that line, dragging the average to 13.04.
As running backs have seemingly become better at staying healthy, ADP hasn’t adjusted. Banking on health continuing might be a tricky choice, but what we saw in 2024 was a feather in the cap of those who bet on it, with five running backs out of the top 12 aged 28 or later.
Out of the 29 wide receivers drafted inside the top 50 picks, 22 finished at or below their positional rank versus where they were drafted, with Terry McLaurin the only wide receiver to exceed their draft ranking by five or more spots, finishing as the WR6 versus his WR29 fantasy football ADP.
When we lay it out like that, it becomes clearer still that WR-heavy starts weren’t the way to go last year, but will that carry over to 2025? The lesson going into 2024 was probably to adjust to what ADP and draftboards were giving us, which many people didn’t do. Do we need to adjust again? If we are going WR-heavy, what traits should we look for?
Late-Round Running Backs Traits to Target
Any WR-heavy strategy is going to be heavily reliant on success from late-round running backs to help it pay off, as well as striking some gold on the waiver wire in redraft leagues.
Ambiguous Backfields
Targeting ambiguous backfields has long been a boom-or-bust strategy for fantasy football. There is simply an opportunity for one or both players to outplay their ADP in these situations. Not every backfield has to turn into David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs for it to pay off. However, if a player is being suppressed because of doubts, but you have strong talents you’re confident in, drafting them and building around them, but understanding it might take time to shake out, can set you up for success.
Pass-Catchers
When it comes to running back fantasy value, unless you’re playing in non-PPR leagues, pass-catching running backs are excellent fantasy assets. Think back to James White, a player who had limited value in the rushing game but consistently outplayed his ADP due to his pass-catching prowess.
Players like Alvin Kamara, Rachaad White and De’Von Achane have all been able to elevate themselves due to this ability. We should be looking for pass-catchers in the late rounds, particularly those on teams with bad defenses, prompting them into pass-heavy scripts.
Play for Good Teams
On the flip side of that point, those who play for good teams are also good bets. This is largely because good teams score a lot of points, and scoring a lot of points makes life easier for our fantasy assets. Middling offenses are less interesting.
Ability to Become a Workhorse
Players like Chase Brown, Zach Charbonnet and Bucky Irving were all running backs who could provide stand-alone value but could become top-12 options should the backs ahead of them suffer an injury or pick up a suspension. Players who don’t catch passes have a smaller shot at greatness unless they get into the end zone a lot.
Rookies
Perhaps above all else, rookies are always worth drafting because they have the potential to outplay their ADP substantially. After all, they represent the unknown. With so many highly-rated rookies entering the league in 2025, we can expect wide receiver-heavy starts to be popular as drafters will be comfortable with the talents available later in drafts.
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