Fantasy baseball is all about the long game. Players you drafted early who struggle are not suddenly untalented bums who should be dropped to the waiver wire at a moment’s notice.
There is a method to the madness of this game and baseball as a whole. Slumps happen, and when a talented player gets out of one, they typically do so in a glorious manner.
We have to be patient unless something substantive, like injury or age concerns, becomes evident. Without either of the two, we are months into a grueling, 162-game season, which can only be conquered through a diligent process.
Fantasy Baseball 10 Burning Questions
This week’s ’10 Burning Questions’ are below. For any questions or concerns, contact me on Twitter/X (@RotoSurgeon).
Quinn Priester is a brand-new man. The Brewers’ (and Red Sox’s) pitching lab has worked its magic with the former top Pirates prospect, creating a quality starter. Priester’s season-long ERA is 3.25 and is backed by his xFIP (3.65), xERA (3.60) and SIERA (3.83). The peripherals are slightly higher than his overall ERA, but if we break down his season, there is reason to believe he is closer to a 3.00 ERA than a 4.00 ERA.
Priester’s arsenal took a step on May 24th and has sustained high-level production since then. In the span from that start against the Pirates to his most recent against the Cubs, Priester has a 2.49 ERA backed by a 2.91 xFIP. His K-BB in this timeframe is 18.1% whereas before it was 1.8% from the start of this season to his start on May 19th.
Priester’s ability to generate ground balls (57.8%) mixed with this newfound success in balancing strikeouts and walks has turned him into a high-end starter in fantasy baseball. He is not a “must-start,” but is as close as one can get to that territory.
2. Can Matt Shaw sustain this breakout?
The Cubs’ former top prospect is finding his groove since the All-Star break. Shaw has four home runs, six runs, 10 RBI and four stolen bases since July 18th. He is slashing .371/.389/.800 in this span with a 231 wRC+. Of course, this torrid pace will not continue, but if Shaw is an average Major League hitter for the rest of this season, that is a valuable fantasy piece.
The Cubs’ offense is one of the league’s best this season (third in wOBA), and Shaw has a special blend of power, speed and plate discipline. Shaw playing every day allows him to soak up counting stats and, most importantly, stolen bases. He is also due for some overall regression, as his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) sits at a low of .257.
Shaw’s expected stats indicate that he was due for regression, but this power surge is unlikely to carry over. He isn’t making much harder contact than before, just having luck swing back his way. If Shaw continues to play every day, he is worth a roster spot in all 12-team and deeper leagues.
3. Who is closing in St. Louis and Minnesota?
The Twins have an “obvious” closer-in-waiting with Griffin Jax. However, he could get traded alongside Jhoan Duran before this deadline, which would complicate the bullpen. Brock Stewart or Cole Sands could be next. Sands is being utilized as an opener at times but has six career saves (all in the past two seasons), to Stewart’s two in seven seasons. Nevertheless, my bet would be Stewart, given how much better he has pitched this season.
The Cardinals will likely install Phil Maton as their closer (six saves in the past two seasons) unless he is dealt. In this case, Kyle Leahy should get the opportunities. However, Riley O’Brien has pitched better this season and has more velocity to offer in the ninth.
4. Who should we buy low?
Jackson Merrill should have a strong second half. The Padres’ star outfielder is slumping this season after dealing with multiple injuries, but is healthy now and hitting the ball hard again, yet not being rewarded (yet). Merrill has a meager seven home runs in 76 games but should double that total while hitting for a high average as the season comes to a close. Three of his seven home runs came in the first 10 games of the season, before he was placed on the injured list (IL) with a hamstring injury.
Merrill has one of the biggest disparities in the MLB between his wOBA and expected wOBA. He makes quality contact but has not been rewarded. In due time, this will even out. If it does not this season, he is a massive buy-low option for 2026. Unfortunately, the steals are unlikely to return this year due to his early-season hamstring injury.
5. Who should we sell high?
Gavin Williams is skating on thin ice. His 3.51 ERA this season is not well reflected by xERA (4.27), xFIP (4.30) or SIERA (4.56). Williams has especially been running hot across his past seven starts. He has a 2.85 ERA in this span, yet displays an xFIP even worse than his season-long number (4.46).
Williams’ stuff has the makings of a high-end starter, but he is not there yet. Get off the Williams train before it crashes.
6. Who can we drop?
Ryan Helsley can be dropped. The Mets are not removing Edwin Diaz from the closer role, nor have they indicated that this move will lead to a shared ninth-inning role. Helsley is downgraded from a high-end closer to a high-end handcuff to the closer, and that is not worth a roster spot in most leagues, especially shallower ones.
7. Who should we stash?
This is more of a “pick him up and see” rather than a stash play. Ke’Bryan Hayes was just traded from the Pirates to the Reds, and we should take notice. The Reds’ offense (17th in wOBA) not only ranks much better than the Pirates’ this season, but their home park is one of the more favorable offensive environments in baseball, while PNC Park in Pittsburgh is a pitcher’s park.
According to Statcast, Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati ranks fourth in park factor since 2023 and is the second-best for right-handed hitters (like Hayes) for home runs. Park and offense are not everything for a hitter to improve, but it is a start for a player like Hayes, who entered the league with high expectations.
Hayes peaked in 2023 with 15 home runs and a 100 wRC+, yet has only declined since with an egregious 58 wRC+ in his last 196 games. He is not someone to insert in your lineup outside of the deepest leagues, but there is upside between his contact ability and speed.
8. Is Chris Sale returning soon?
The veteran ace and reigning National League MVP is not eligible to return from the 60-Day IL until late August. However, he is throwing on the field before games. Unfortunately, throwing is one small step to returning this season. Sale will need multiple bullpen sessions and rehab starts before returning to a Major League mound. It is almost August, and we have no information on any timeline for those.
Given that the Braves are almost out of contention and just lost Ronald Acuna Jr. for two-to-three weeks, Sale could be shut down for the season. Atlanta is 16 games removed from a playoff spot and sits fourth in their division behind highly competitive teams. Unless Sale is traded, we should not expect him back for any meaningful fantasy baseball action.
The Martian has been.. .boring. Jasson Dominguez has weeks when you witness his monster upside. However, most of his weeks are mediocre. He will sit out every third game due to the Yankees’ lineup clog and hit anywhere from leadoff to the bottom-third of the order.
Nine home runs and 16 stolen bases are solid for a player in 88 games, but his general production is so sporadic. There is a chance you bench him for a game and miss a week’s worth of counting stats. Dropping Dominguez and allowing him to be someone else’s problem is fine in 10-and-12-team leagues. Shallower formats do not have better options.
10. Who is the Dodgers’ closer?
The Dodgers fully trust Tanner Scott in the role, but he is injured and may be diminished upon return from this IL stint. Elbow inflammation is less concerning than elbow/forearm tightness. However, if he does not perform well upon return or gets hurt again, the Dodgers are in a conundrum.
Kirby Yates is the logical backup closer, but he has a 4.31 ERA, and the organization is using him untraditionally throughout games. Blake Treinen just returned from the IL and has a history with the team as their closer, but he missed a lot of time this season and is struggling. The most recent save went to leftie Alex Vesia, but his talents are too valuable to entrench in any role.
The best bet is that Scott will return and re-take the role, because when he is out, the ninth inning will continue to carousel between the other relievers (even Ben Casparius earned a save).
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