While the quarterback position in fantasy football may not be the most valuable, failing to find a steady starter or drafting one of the cream-of-the-crop talents can leave you scrambling for streamers all season long, which could be hit or miss, especially depending on the size of your league.
Thus, like any other position, there are certain players you may want to avoid. This could be for numerous reasons, including their current average draft position (ADP) compared to other available talents, their previous track record and more.
- Fantasy Football Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- 2025 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Quarterback Busts to Avoid: Overvalued Fantasy Football Picks
Below are three quarterbacks I’m avoiding in fantasy drafts. Let’s check them out.
Jared Goff (QB – DET)
Last season, from Weeks 1 to 17, Jared Goff finished as the QB6. He threw for 4,629 yards, 37 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. According to ADP, which is the consensus of five sources, Goff is going as the QB11, including as high as QB9 on Yahoo!
While that may feel like a notable discrepancy, I do have some pause with Goff. This season, the Lions will be without offensive coordinator and guru Ben Johnson. In his place is John Morton. He was on the staff as a senior offensive assistant in 2022. Since then, he has served as the passing game coordinator for the Denver Broncos in 2023 and 2024.
Before that, he had only one other stint as an offensive coordinator, which occurred in 2017 with the New York Jets. It’s hard to gauge Morton’s performance with the Jets because that was nearly a decade ago and the quarterback room then was far from the level of Goff with Josh McCown and Bryce Petty.
There was some good when looking over Bo Nix‘s numbers with Morton as the pass game coordinator last season, including 13.1% of his attempts being passes 20+ yards downfield, but I can also recognize that this is going to be a change for Goff and this offense.
Last season, Goff posted a 6.9% touchdown rate, which was by far the highest in his career. In 2023, the rate was 5%, and in 2022, it was 4.9%. The Lions also have two incredible running backs in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. To top this all off, Goff doesn’t bring any rushing value.
Avoid Goff with all these changes and potential red flags.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX)
While head coach Liam Coen could be all Trevor Lawrence needs to unlock his talents that we saw from him at Clemson, I’m still just not there yet.
Right now, Lawrence is going as the QB22, so he’s quite inexpensive, but around that range, there are some other players I’d consider looking at if I’m punting the position, including J.J. McCarthy, and perhaps even Bryce Young and Michael Penix Jr.
Lawrence is coming off an A/C joint injury on his non-throwing shoulder, so hopefully that doesn’t impact him too much. The Jaguars did add Travis Hunter in the draft to serve as another weapon, but there are a lot of other glaring red flags that, while Coen may be able to solve, I need to see it first.
Last season, Lawrence was terrible under pressure, averaging just 4.4 yards per attempt. He had some success on downfield throws, but the majority of his turnover-worthy plays came on passes down the field. He’s fallen into that category for me where, when he throws the ball downfield, I cross my fingers.
Over the last two seasons, his touchdown percentage hasn’t hit 4%. Prove me wrong, Coen.
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)
I like Baker Mayfield a lot, especially from a “real life” football angle. He’s a lot of fun to watch, but going as the QB7 might be tough for me to buy into. Last season, Mayfield finished as the QB5, but there are some notable statistical outliers.
Mayfield surged from 28 touchdown passes to 41. This also represented a 4.9% touchdown rate in 2023 and an eye-popping 7.2% rate in 2024.
The team has added Emeka Egbuka, which will help, but Mike Evans is only getting older and Chris Godwin is recovering from a severe injury.
Additionally, Mayfield attempted almost the same number of passes, but had a 7.1% higher completion percentage. On top of all this, he has a new offensive coordinator with Liam Coen going to Jacksonville.
I think Mayfield will still be a solid fantasy asset, but QB7 is a tough sell depending on who’s on the board. Proceed with a bit of caution.
*All advanced analytics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn