5 Draft Picks to Avoid (2025 Fantasy Football)

Let’s look at players who are overpriced picks to avoid based on Yahoo ADP for fantasy football drafts.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on Yahoo

Jared Goff (DET) – ADP 81.4 | QB9

Last year, Goff had the best season of his career, finishing as the QB6, averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game. He set career highs in several categories, including completion rate (72.4%), passing touchdowns (37), and quarterback rating (111.8). Yet, fantasy players should temper expectations for Goff this season. Detroit lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Chicago Bears. More importantly, Goff is primed for touchdown regression. Last year, he posted a career-high 6.9% passing touchdown rate. By comparison, his previous career best was 5.9% while his career average is 4.8%.

Joe Mixon (HOU) – ADP 39.9 | RB15

While he was the RB9 on a points-per-game basis last season, averaging 17.2 PPR fantasy points per outing, Mixon is overvalued at his RB15 ADP. Last year, he was the RB27 from Week 12 through Week 18, averaging 10 fantasy points per game. According to Fantasy Points Date, his 4.5% explosive run rate was lower than Tank Bigsby (4.8%), and his 13% missed forced tackle per attempt rate was lower than Gus Edwards (16%). There are multiple running backs with a later ADP I would draft before Mixon.

Aaron Jones (MIN) – ADP 64.4 | RB23

Unfortunately, Jones quietly had a disappointing 2024 season. He ended the year as the RB20 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 14.2 PPR fantasy points per outing despite seeing the majority of backfield touches. More importantly, the veteran will have significant competition for touches this season after Minnesota traded for Jordan Mason. Furthermore, Jones is on the wrong side of 30 and has injury history, making him a massive risk at his low-end RB2 ADP. I would rather wait and draft Mason nearly four rounds later than Jones at his price.

Zay Flowers (BAL) – ADP 61.2 | WR23

The Ravens finished second in the NFL last season with 41 passing touchdowns. Yet, Flowers had four, accounting for 9.8% of the team’s total, totaling only one more receiving touchdown than Justice Hill (three). More importantly, he was the WR25 in 2024, averaging 12.3 PPR fantasy points per game, down from his rookie year (12.9), despite ranking 14th among qualifying wide receivers in target share (24.1%) and posting the same target per route run rate (26%) as Justin Jefferson (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, Baltimore added DeAndre Hopkins this offseason.

Chris Godwin (TB) – ADP 75.7 | WR29

Godwin was the WR1, averaging 19.7 PPR fantasy points per game last year before suffering a season-ending lower leg injury. Unfortunately, the veteran’s injury puts his status for Week 1 in question. Furthermore, Godwin will likely spend a significant part of the season on a snap count because of the injury. More importantly, Tampa Bay has a plethora of options at wide receiver after Jalen McMillan’s strong finish to his rookie season and first-round draft pick Emeka Egbuka. Therefore, Godwin has too much risk to warrant his WR29 ADP.