Last year, four of the top 10 running backs in ADP were fantasy busts. Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall were two of the top three running backs. Unfortunately, both finished outside the top 15 running backs for different reasons. Furthermore, Travis Etienne Jr. and Isiah Pacheco were drafted as top 10 running backs but finished the 2024 season as massive busts.
Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor and Rachaad White got drafted as top-15 running backs. They weren’t massive busts, but they got picked too high. Which running backs should fantasy players avoid in 2025 because they have a high bust risk or are overvalued at their ADP? Let’s look at five running backs I am avoiding this season.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Running Backs to Avoid
Bucky Irving (TB): ADP 20.7 | RB9
While he ended last season as a league winner, Irving is overrated as the RB9 in ADP. Last year, he finished as the RB13, averaging 14.4 PPR fantasy points per outing. However, Rachaad White is still a factor in the backfield, especially in the passing game. According to Fantasy Points Data, White had a higher route participation rate (44.5% vs. 32.9%), first-read target share (9.1% vs. 7.3%), and third-down route participation rate (61.9% vs. 10.2%) than Irving. He shouldn’t get drafted ahead of Josh Jacobs, Chase Brown, and Kyren Williams.
James Cook (BUF): ADP 39.7 | RB14
Many were shocked when Cook finished last season as the RB8, averaging 16.7 PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he had 16 rushing touchdowns and two receiving scores in 2024, leading the league in rushing touchdowns. By comparison, the veteran running back had four rushing touchdowns and five receiving scores over his first two years in the NFL. Cook’s a clear-cut touchdown regression candidate. If he had 10 rushing touchdowns last season, the former Georgia star would have finished as the RB20, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game.
Omarion Hampton (LAC): ADP 41.7 | RB15
Unfortunately, Hampton’s redraft upside is limited because of Najee Harris. Reportedly, the veteran is fine after a Fourth of July fireworks incident and should be ready for Week 1. More importantly, Los Angeles didn’t have the run-heavy offense many thought in 2024. According to Fantasy Points Data, they ranked 14th in pass play rate (63.2%) and 19th in run play rate (36.8%) from Week 11 through 18 when Justin Herbert was finally healthy. While he is my favorite Chargers running back, Hampton is overvalued as the RB15 in the ADP.
Isiah Pacheco (KC): ADP 72.7 | RB27
Last year, Pacheco missed nine games because of injury. Furthermore, he averaged 8.1 PPR fantasy points per game, the second-lowest average of his career, while posting career lows in yards per rushing attempt (3.7) and touchdowns (one). More importantly, Pacheco lost his starting role to Kareem Hunt after returning from injury. Meanwhile, the Chiefs added Elijah Mitchell and Brashard Smith to the backfield after re-signing Hunt. Between the crowded backfield, his injury history, and the loss of Joe Thuney, fantasy players should feel nervous drafting Pacheco as a mid-range RB3.
Aaron Jones (MIN): ADP 74.7 | RB29
Jones quietly had a disappointing 2024 season, finishing as the RB20 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 14.2 PPR fantasy points per outing despite seeing the majority of backfield touches. Furthermore, the veteran is on the wrong side of 30 and has injury history. More importantly, he will have significant competition for touches after Minnesota traded for Jordan Mason this offseason. According to Fantasy Points Data, he had a better explosive run rate (7.8% vs. 3.5%) and missed forced tackle per attempt rate (22% vs. 11%) than Jones last year.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
