When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable fantasy football players Derek Brown is avoiding at their current draft cost.
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Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Players to Avoid
Last year was the first time D.K. Metcalf hasn’t finished as a top 24 wide receiver in fantasy points per game (WR30). Metcalf dealt with shoulder and knee injuries last year, which could also be contributing to his fall off. His per-route metrics don’t paint a rosier picture, as he was 78th in separation, 89th in route win rate, and 64th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Yes, he did rank 36th in target share, 35th in yards per route run, and 20th in receiving yards per game, so it’s not all doom and gloom surrounding Metcalf. There are reasons to believe in a bounceback here. He’ll be the unquestioned top option in the Pittsburgh passing attack, which should help his weekly volume floor and ceiling. Aaron Rodgers isn’t returning to his former glory, but if he can be serviceable, Metcalf should pay off as a volume-fueled WR2/3.
Father Time remains undefeated. Tyreek Hill could see his efficiency dip again this season another year older. Last year, with Tua Tagovailoa under center (Weeks 8-16), Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game while ranking 36th in yards per route run, 34th in target share, and 33rd in receiving yards per game. Overall, last year, he was 28th in separation and 48th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). None of this screams, “Hill is a top 15-20 wide receiver this season & a must-draft player.” Hill could return WR2 value in 2025 if he can hold off Father Time and rebound from the wrist injury that plagued him last season. If Hill dips in drafts, I’ll get exposure to him, but he’s not a player I’m prioritizing in drafts.
Deebo Samuel had a tough 2024 season, during which he dealt with numerous injuries. Last year alone, he dealt with a calf strain, pneumonia, a hamstring strain, and rib issues. Samuel has accumulated a lengthy medical record throughout the years. The injury risk remains entering 2025, with Samuel being a year older and his playing style as a bruising, tackle-breaking underneath threat continuing. The 49ers dealt Samuel to Washington this offseason as the Commanders were searching for weapons to add to the fold for Jayden Daniels. If we can get past Samuel’s question marks on paper, it’s a nice marriage. Last year, Washington ranked sixth in screen passes (per Fantasy Points Data). This should be Samuel’s role to grab in 2025 as Washington’s WR2. Last year, Samuel was the WR46 in fantasy points per game while ranking 47th in target share (17.2%) and receiving yards per game (44.7), 53rd in yards per route run (1.69), and 63rd in first downs per route run. He logged the lowest yards after catch per reception of his career last season. All of the per-route metrics for Samuel are trending in the wrong direction. This isn’t a player that I’ll be drafting much at cost in 2025, but if he slips far enough in a draft, then I’ll possibly hit the draft button. Samuel is a WR4 with more appeal in PPR formats.
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