A fantasy football draft is rarely won or lost in the first or second round. Those players should be anchors, the reliable pieces of your roster that provide a strong baseline of points throughout a fantasy football season. The best way to win a league is to be the smartest guy in the room when it comes to drafting late talent that can return early-round value.
The other side of that coin is recognizing which players to avoid as the draft moves into the middle and later rounds. These players go in wildly different places depending on which site you draft on, but our analysis seeks to help you pinpoint undervalued and overvalued players on every fantasy football platform. This monthly series will look at Fantrax to identify players to draft and players to avoid.
Let’s look at fantasy football players who are going too far ahead of where they should be in August, according to average draft position (ADP).
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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on Fantrax
The 2025 NFL and fantasy football season will be here before we know it, and even in late summer, we are entering prime draft season. Analyzing those drafts is an interesting exercise when there is little news and just one week of preseason games, but other clues can point us to whether players are undervalued or overvalued as we enter prime draft season. Beginning that homework now will give us an advantage when draft day comes.
Gaining that edge now means looking at where players are being drafted on different sites. Comparing those values to FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) is an easy way to gauge players who seem overpriced early in the summer. Here are four overvalued players according to early Fantrax ADP in PPR leagues.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) | Fantrax ADP: 34.2/ECR: 38
Four spots may not seem like a lot of difference in a player’s ADP, but when we are dealing with picks in the third and fourth rounds, these micro-differences can be the margin between a championship team and a mediocre one. Breece Hall is going before the end of the third round in 12-team leagues on Fantrax. That seems too steep based on camp reports of what the running back workloads will look like.
Hall is talented and versatile, but no regime he has been in seems to want to commit a large share of the workload to him. He was 15th in opportunity share last season (68%) and was just 18th in carries (209), despite missing just one game. But what puts the nail in Hall’s coffin is how the Jets ignore him in the red zone. His 30 red-zone touches in 2024 ranked just 29th among running backs.
New head coach Aaron Gleen already seems committed to a committee approach with Hall, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. Add in the fact that Justin Fields will call his own number to rush quite often, and Hall is not a player I want in the third round.
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)| ADP: 67.9/ECR: 86
It is now a fact that Jordan Addison will miss the first three games of the season due to the suspension he has chosen not to appeal. He can not play more than 14 games, and if you factor that in with the fact that he was 22nd in fantasy points per game, it’s going to be hard for him to crack the top 25 in overall fantasy points for wide receivers.
Addison is being drafted as the WR33 in Fantrax drafts, which is five spots ahead of the WR38 rank he has in ECR. A 20-spot difference is massive at this point in the draft. Picking Addison around pick 68 means you are missing number one wide receivers like Chris Olave, Jerry Jeudy, Stefon Diggs and potentially Rome Odunze.
Addison may outscore most or all of those players in fantasy points per game, but the opportunity cost of taking Addison before pick 70 is very high. I’m all over drafting Addison after pick 80, after your team has locked up seven skill players, but what you have to make up down the road if Addison goes off the board early is too high a price.
Deebo Samuel (WR – WSH) | ADP: 74.4/ECR: 95
Deebo Samuel represents yet another 20-spot difference before pick 100 in drafts across fantasy football sites. No other major fantasy football site has Samuel within the top 80 picks by ADP. For some reason, Fantrax is pushing Samuel up their draft boards, and there is no reason for him to go around pick 75.
Samuel has missed at least two games in each of the last three seasons, and last year was his worst statistical output by far. He was 48th in targets, 45th in target share, 53rd in routes and 46th in fantasy points per game. He only had 1.72 yards per route run (55th), which can be explained by the fact that his major superpower — yards after the catch — was nowhere near his previous seasons.
Samuel’s efficiency fell off a cliff last season, and now he is about to turn 30 in a new offense that was 21st in pass attempts per game in 2024. If Terry McLaurin holds out or gets traded by Washington, I can see this being an appropriate draft price. But at pick 75, give me someone with upside potential like Rome Odunze instead.
Cooper Kupp (WR – SEA) | ADP: 89.5/ECR: 113
For many years, Cooper Kupp was the face and the focal point of the Los Angeles Rams’ offense. Despite some record-breaking years, they just decided to let him go this offseason without any sort of fanfare and only a meager attempt at a re-signing. No contract extension. No trade talks. They didn’t worry about a compensatory draft pick. The Rams decided they had what they needed with Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams. Add in Blake Corum, and the offense in Los Angeles looks set. Kupp eventually signed with Seattle.
Seattle’s offense is almost completely turned over from 2024. Gone are Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Replacing them are Kupp, a couple of rookie receivers and Sam Darnold. In 2025, there are 182 vacated targets from Metcalf and Lockett, and those have to go somewhere. However, it’s not that targets were the issue with Kupp in a declining 2024 season, but what he did with those targets. His ultra-efficiency from 2020-2022 vanished.
Kupp’s yards per reception, yards per target and success rate all declined last year. Add in the fact that Kupp has missed at least five games in three straight years, and paying the 86th pick overall seems too high on Fantrax when other rankers on FantasyPros have him going after pick 100.
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