Players Experts Avoid: Breece Hall, Tyreek Hill, Saquon Barkley

Draft day is all about finding value and avoiding costly mistakes – and Average Draft Position (ADP) is one of the best tools to help you do both. By comparing where players are being drafted to their projected production, fantasy football managers can spot potential steals and sidestep landmines. To give you a winning edge for 2025 drafts, we’ve gathered 30 players experts draft and avoid at ADP from our collection of Featured Pros experts. This list highlights the players our analysts are targeting at their current ADP, as well as the ones they’re avoiding, so you can make smarter picks and build a championship-ready roster.

Players Experts Avoid at ADP

Who is a player you’re AVOIDING in drafts based on his current ADP (top-150) and why?

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

“Breece Hall is still being valued pretty high for a guy who is no longer a bell cow RB. In fact, Jets head coach Aaron Glenn has hinted at an RBBC, comprising Hall and Braelon Allen, where Allen gets the short-yardage and potential goal-line touches. Glenn said, “With Braelon, a 240-pound man that’s always falling forward. Listen, that’s where he’s going to make his money.” In addition, it’s hard to imagine Hall’s reception total going up without Aaron Rodgers at QB. Justin Fields is younger and faster, and much more likely to take off and run when there is pressure rather than dumping off a pass to his RB in the flat. And this just in, per Tony Pauline of Sportskeeda, people close to this situation think Hall might be moved before the trade deadline, which could be good or bad news for his fantasy outlook, depending on where he ends up. Hall’s 2025 fantasy outlook seems risky given the uncertainty and his expensive price tag (current ADP at RB 13).”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)

“Don’t draft Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins’ WR is one of the riskiest early-round picks in fantasy football, ranking as the WR12 (28th overall). He finished last season as WR33 in points per game, with just two 100-yard games alongside a healthy Tua Tagovailoa (11 games as WR18 in PPG) – a far cry from the elite production fantasy managers drafted him for. His efficiency cratered, with yards per route run dropping to 1.75 – less than half his 2023 mark – all while battling a wrist injury. Now 31, Hill is approaching the dreaded age cliff for speed-reliant receivers, and a late-season sideline outburst only adds to the concerns about his role/stability in Miami. Early reports have indicated that he is still working to rebuild his relationship with his QB and his teammates, while trade rumors for the Cheetah have also gained steam in recent weeks. The game-breaking upside might still be there, but the red flags around health, team chemistry, and declining performance make Hill a logical bust candidate that should be avoided at this high of a cost.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

“Tough to choose between Tyreek Hill and Jonathan Taylor, but the situation brewing in Miami just does not feel right. Hill already wanted out after last year, only for those cracks to be smoothed over for now. Headed into 2025, Miami feels on the brink of a full-blown blowup, and that is a situation that is best to be avoided. Hill, currently the WR12 in half-ADP, is simply too expensive and comes with way too much downside than in previous seasons to warrant such an investment in 2025.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)

“Saquon Barkley had a season for the ages last year! If not for sitting out week 17, he would be in the record books! Currently, his ADP is #2 overall, and that scares me! I hope he has a great year, but historically, this has not proven to be the case. He has many factors not in his favor, including the fact that he is in his age 28 season, has only played two complete seasons in his career (rookie and I am counting last year), and statistically, many running backs coming off of a 400+ touch season see a decline in production the next year. Add to all those reasons that teams will more than likely move their focus to the run game and challenge Hurts to beat them through the air (and he is on the cover of Madden). Do I see Barkley dropping to RB30, no, but I do have enough trepidation that I am avoiding drafting him as a top 5 pick in redraft leagues when players like Bijan Robison, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jahmyr Gibbs are available and in great positions to be the anchors for fantasy teams.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)