Week 4’s matchups are built for fantasy football smash starts. Over the first three weeks, many of the matchups were relatively competitive, with 55% of the games scoring below their projected total. Last week, I’ll be the first to admit my selections did not come through. To quote the legendary Halifax sitcom, Trailer Park Boys, “sometimes she goes, sometimes she doesn’t, and that’s just the way of the road, Bubs.” Anyway, I am very confident in my selections this week. I have selected some stars and some waiver wire players who are all in great situations.
My name is Ellis Johnson, and I am proud to say that last week I finished as the No. 1 overall ranker in FantasyPros’ accuracy competition. I also finished tops in both quarterback and wide receiver rankings last week. I would also like to shout out my colleagues Derek Brown and Pat Fitzmaurice for finishing second and third, respectively. We have an amazing team here at FantasyPros, and I would like to thank you all for reading my work each week. Without further ado, here are your Week 4 smash starts.
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Fantasy Football Smash Starts: Week 4
Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV)
This is the week. I know we have been saying that for three weeks now, but I promise this week is different. As an Ashton Jeanty fan and believer, I’ve been keeping the light on for him to be a fantasy RB1. If he doesn’t come through this week, I’ll have to take a long look in the mirror and reassess the rest of the season outlook.
Why is this week different? Through the first three weeks, Jeanty has faced the Patriots, Chargers and Commanders. Those teams are second, fourth and seventh in fewest rushing yards allowed to running backs, respectively. This week, he faces a Bears team allowing the second-most rushing yards to the running back position. That’s massive.
There is one concern that may be larger than the matchup, and that’s the offensive line. After some weird rotations, the offensive line coach appears to be desperate for answers and has yet to find any. I’m not going to make any wild connections here, but I would like to point out that the offensive line coach is Pete Caroll’s son. Either way, this is out of Jeanty’s control. If you haven’t watched how bad this line has played, just know that Jeanty has 144 rushing yards and 145 rushing yards after contact. Even this line has to hold up against a mediocre Bears front… right? I’m calling Jeanty to have his first career top-12 running back finish this week.
Drake London (WR – ATL) & Darnell Mooney (WR – ATL)
Forget about last week’s Falcons. We have seen enough from Michael Penix Jr. and this offense to confidently say that getting shut out was a case of a weird divisional game. I’m not saying Penix didn’t look terrible, but we can feel good about this team bouncing back this week.
As for Drake London, WR51 through three weeks was not on my bingo card heading into the season. The only metric that is in his favour this season has been targets, where he is tied for eighth at the position. Other than that, it’s hard to determine where the gap between London and fantasy production is coming from. It’s a bit of a stretch, but if we forget last week, and re-evaluate that Week 2 was against the dreaded Vikings, he has only had one decent matchup so far. This week, he takes on a Commanders team that let Geno Smith pass for nearly 300 yards and three scores.
Darnell Mooney is the other part of this receiving equation. After injuring his shoulder early in August, we did not see Mooney take the field until Week 2. Again, that was against a shut-down Vikings defense. Last week, in a terrible game, Mooney led the team with 11 targets. Against the Commanders, the Raiders did most of their damage through speedy No. 2 WR Tre Tucker. Tucker had his best day as a pro, with eight catches, 145 yards and three scores. Mooney is a tier above Tucker and has similar speed to make big plays and beat defenses in the open field.
I’m calling for a huge Falcons bounce back this week, and these two receivers will play key roles. It’s unclear if Jayden Daniels will play, but if he does, this offense will need to keep up against a feisty Commanders team.
Nico Collins (WR – HOU)
The Titans have one good corner, and that is L’Jarius Sneed. However, this year, he has not been great, grading as Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) 126th cornerback out of 158 qualified players at the position. That’s bad. Still, Snead hit reporters with the classic “who?” response when asked about Nico Collins. That is some big talk from a defense allowing the fourth-most receiving yards to the wide receiver position.
The Texans have not been pretty this season. They have yet to score a red-zone touchdown. It’s not a surprise, since neither C.J. Stroud nor the run game can succeed with how this offensive line is playing. Even with a turnstile offensive line, Collins has been the driving force of this offense. With a ridiculous touchdown grab in Week 2, he followed it up with a 50-yard score last week.
This team also has Christian Kirk back in the lineup after missing the first two games. While Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are good prospects, neither has made an impact early this season. Kirk should help this offense keep drives moving and open up the defense for Collins. This team is desperate for a win, and the Titans’ defense should be no match for Collins. Fire him up with full confidence this week.
Jordan Love (QB – GB)
This is one of the more obvious smash start selections. Coming off an upset loss to the Browns, who held this offense to 10 points, this is a perfect bounce-back game for Jordan Love and the Packers. On Sunday Night Football, the Packers take on an embarrassing Cowboys defense.
The Cowboys are allowing the most fantasy points to the position, as well as the most passing yards and the second-most passing touchdowns. The icing on this matchup cake is that the only decent part of this defense is against the run. Although beatable on the ground, they are allowing the 10th-fewest rushing yards to the running back position. As a result, there is no reason the Packers won’t be airing it out all game. All Packers are startable this week, including Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs in deeper leagues. The matchup can’t get any better, start Love in all formats.
Brenton Strange (TE – JAX)
Every week, I try to have a sneaky smash start that may be available on the waiver wire in most leagues. This week, I’m calling for the second-year tight end out of Penn State to come through for fantasy. Although Brenton Strange is an intriguing athletic tight end who has the trust of the organization, this selection hinges on the pieces around him.
If you told me I would be saying that playing with a healthy Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter would be a positive for Strange’s fantasy outlook, I would have thought it was impossible. However, that’s the world we are living in. Hunter has continued to struggle to get a handle on this offense, often having issues lining up in the correct spot. This makes sense. As a rookie, he is learning multiple positions at the highest level, so it’ll take time to adjust. As for Thomas, he doesn’t have that excuse. Instead, it has been a mix of poor play by both Trevor Lawrence and the second-year wideout.
The Jaguars currently lead the league in drops with 14, and the team with the second-most has nine. Of these 14 drops, Thomas is second in the league with three, and Parker Washington is tied for eighth with two. Strange has one drop and is tied for second on the team in targets.
This week, the Jaguars face the 49ers, who allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position and the seventh-fewest yards. In contrast, they allow the 10th-most points to tight ends and the fifth-most touchdowns to the position through three weeks. This team will likely be playing from behind for most of this game and will have to pass. As a result, Strange may be looked to often as a safety blanket for Lawrence.
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