Two weeks of data from FantasyPros’ fantasy points allowed Tool isn’t much… but it’s twice as much as we had last week. Especially when there are outliers, we can already start to identify matchups that are particularly favorable or unfavorable for certain fantasy positions.
However, this week’s article will still rely heavily on data from last year (where appropriate) as well, to help offset how small this year’s sample is. If we can find teams that continued a trend from last year into the first two weeks of this season, that’s probably a real trend. Without further ado, let’s get started on the best and worst matchups of Week 3.
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 3)
Week 3 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Caleb Williams (QB – CHI) vs. Dallas Cowboys
You can say what you want about Caleb Williams’ real-life performances so far this season, but it’s impossible to deny that he has been a solid fantasy quarterback, with 24.2 points in Week 1 and 18 points in Week 2.
Williams should get a chance to continue his hot start to the season this week. The Cowboys ranked first in the NFL with 20.9 points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks last season.
So far this season, they’ve gotten even worse, allowing a monstrous 27.3 points per game. Last week, they got cooked by 2025 Russell Wilson. This game also has by far the highest projected total of the week, further increasing the chances that Williams has another strong week in what should be a shootout.
Bad Matchup: Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) @ Buffalo Bills
Technically, the Bills have given up the seventh-most points to opposing quarterbacks this season. But they had to play Lamar Jackson in Week 1, and no one stops Lamar Jackson. Even with facing Jackson, Buffalo’s defense has given up only 146 passing yards per game so far this season, by far the lowest in the NFL.
Looking back to last season, they were the ninth-toughest opponent for fantasy quarterbacks. Just in case you were thinking about streaming Tua Tagovailoa, hoping for a shootout, this is your sign to look elsewhere.
Week 3 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Javonte Williams (RB – DAL) @ Chicago Bears
Javonte Williams is on absolute fire to start the season, and that isn’t likely to stop in Week 3. So far, the Bears’ defense has allowed 26.6 points per game to opposing backs, the second-most in the league.
This isn’t anything new, as they were the seventh-best matchup for backs in 2024. If he hadn’t already forced his way into your lineup with his back-to-back huge games, hopefully this juicy matchup is enough to convince you to find a spot for him.
Bad Matchup: Josh Jacobs (RB – GB) @ Cleveland Browns
Josh Jacobs is probably a must-start, regardless of the matchup. But the Browns’ defense held Derrick Henry to 2.3 points on Sunday. They have allowed just 73 rushing yards to opposing backs so far this season, the fewest amount of yards allowed by any team.
In 2024, despite having a terrible offense that would theoretically lead to positive game scripts for opposing backs, they were the fourth-toughest matchup for running backs. Given his elite usage, Jacobs could definitely still get there on volume and a touchdown or two in this one. But don’t be shocked if he follows in King Henry’s footsteps with a surprisingly mediocre outing.
Week 3 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: DK Metcalf (WR – PIT) @ New England Patriots
DK Metcalf’s first two games as a Steeler have been fine, but nothing special. But he has an excellent chance to have his first monster game in a Pittsburgh uniform this weekend. So far this season, the Patriots have allowed a massive 38.4 points per game to opposing receivers.
At first glance, this is a new trend, as New England allowed a roughly average amount of points to opposing receivers last season. However, they actually ranked third-worst in expected points added (EPA) per passing play allowed. They would have given up far more points if their offense had been competent. Now, it is, and the Patriots seem destined for shootouts every single week. As the Steelers’ clear No. 1 WR, Metcalf should be involved if this game does indeed produce fireworks.
Bad Matchup: Chris Olave (WR – NO) @ Seattle Seahawks
So far this season, no team has allowed fewer points to opposing wide receivers than the Seahawks. They have allowed opposing wide receivers to make just 11 catches total through two games.
To be fair, Seattle’s defense was a totally average matchup for wide receivers last week. There’s a chance this is just a fluke to start the season. But with Spencer Rattler under center, Chris Olave is already a risky play each week. Just in case we are looking at the Legion of Boom 2.0, I recommend leaving him on your bench this week.
Week 3 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) @ Carolina Panthers
I’m scared to say it, but I’m starting to believe in Kyle Pitts again. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ran a route on every single one of Michael Penix‘s dropbacks last week, an unheard-of feat at the tight end position. He also ranks fifth at the position with a 21% target share.
If you’re still unconvinced, Pitts gets an excellent matchup to take advantage of his newly elite usage this week. The Panthers ranked first in the league with 13 points per game allowed to tight ends in 2024; so far in 2025, they’re even more generous at 15.7 points per game. Fire Pitts up — maybe not with confidence, but with hope — as a TE1 this week.
Bad Matchup: Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE – CAR) vs. Atlanta Falcons
With seven catches on nine targets last week, Sanders is pushing his way into the large tier of borderline fantasy TE1s. However, this is not the week to stream him. The Falcons have allowed a total of one catch for 12 yards to opposing tight ends this season. That’s it. And it’s not like they’ve faced complete zeros in the receiving game, in T.J. Hockenson and Cade Otton.
There’s a very real chance that this is just a small-sample quirk. Tight end points against stats are often heavily skewed by chance or matchups, even across larger samples. But allowing just one single successful tight end play in two games is too absurd a stat to ignore. Atlanta has given up 0.9 points per game to opposing tight ends — the next toughest defense has given up 4.5, literally five times as much. Given that Ja’Tavion Sanders is a dart-throw option anyway, I recommend picking a different dart this week.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
