Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice: Quarterbacks
Start’Em
Last week, against a pass funnel defense, Jordan Love had only 25 passing attempts. Yes, I know Love was pressured on 51.6% of his dropbacks last week, so that did obviously play a part in the game plan. Hopefully, this is the week we finally see Green Bay lean on its passing game a tad more. Love could use the “get right” game. He’s the QB19 in fantasy points per game. While he has the sixth-best yards per attempt and passer rating, he has struggled in accuracy metrics, ranking 20th in CPOE, 35th in highly accurate throw rate, and 24th in catchable target rate. Dallas has allowed the most passing yards per game and the highest CPOE while also giving up the second-most passing touchdowns and the highest yards per attempt. Dallas is only 15th in pressure rate, so Love should have more time in the pocket this week.
Daniel Jones continues to defy preseason expectations as the QB4 in fantasy points per game. He is fourth in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, tenth in catchable target rate, and 11th in hero throw rate. In addition to his passing stats, he has kicked in 5.7 rushing attempts and 18.3 rushing yards per game (three scores) on the ground. Jones is still in starting consideration this week despite a tough defensive matchup. The Rams have allowed the tenth-fewest passing yards per game, the eighth-lowest CPOE, and the tenth-lowest success rate per dropback. Jalen Hurts displayed last week that this pass defense isn’t without its faults, though. Jones has the skill players around him to succeed.
After destroying a clueless Dallas secondary, Caleb Williams is the QB3 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 12th in yards per attempt and eighth in passer rating, but his per-dropback metrics STILL aren’t great as he is 23rd in CPOE, 27th in highly accurate throw rate, and 30th in catchable target rate. Hopefully, he pulls those accuracy metrics up as the season moves along. He should have no issues dismantling the Raiders’ secondary, though. Las Vegas has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the tenth-highest passer rating and passing yards per game, and the fourth-highest CPOE.
Geno Smith is the QB15 in fantasy points per game, but passing volume is propping up some mediocre per-dropback stats. Smith is eighth in passing attempts, fourth in passing yards per game, and tenth in yards per attempt. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he also ranks 23rd in highly accurate throw rate, 31st in catchable target rate, and he has the third-highest off-target rate. Smith could still light up the Bears’ struggling secondary this week despite his shortcomings. Chicago has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, the sixth-most yards per attempt, and the third-highest CPOE.
Sit’Em
Is C.J. Stroud broken? I hope not, but it has been a rough start to the season. Stroud is the QB33 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 25th in passing yards per game, 20th in yards per attempt, and highly accurate throw rate, 35th in CPOE, and 27th in catchable target rate. He has a possible “get right” matchup this week against Tennessee. The Titans have allowed the 11th-most yards per attempt and the tenth-highest CPOE and success rate per dropback. Stroud should have time to survey the field against a pass defense that has the 12th-lowest pressure rate.
Baker Mayfield is the QB11 in fantasy points per game, averaging four rushing attempts and 38.7 rushing yards. He has been in full YOLO mode. Mayfield is second in the passing touchdowns (tied), 13th in passer rating, and ninth in highly accurate throw rate. Ok, those are the good things, now to the bad. Mayfield also ranks 26th in CPOE, 21st in catchable target rate, and fifth in turnover-worthy throw rate. Mayfield could easily pull another rabbit out of his Buccaneers helmet this week and be a QB1 again, but he’ll have an uphill climb to do so. The Eagles have allowed the tenth-fewest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-lowest CPOE.
Sam Darnold is playing good football in Seattle, but it hasn’t translated into a ton of fantasy points as he is the QB30 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying passers, Darnold ranks fourth in yards per attempt and CPOE, 16th in highly accurate throw rate and catchable target rate, and 13th in fantasy points per dropback. Sadly, he’s headed for another middling fantasy outing against the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the 11th-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-fewest passing touchdowns.
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