Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Caleb Williams‘ rough outing in Week 1 has been well documented. His Week 2 performance offered hope that he is progressing in this new offensive system. Last week, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 11th in catchable target rate, and he had the 13th-lowest off-target rate. He was still 27th in highly accurate throw rate, but at this point, we just want to see baby steps forward weekly. For fantasy purposes, Williams has been perfectly fine as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. His rushing output has helped in that department as he has averaged 5.5 rushing attempts and 42.5 rushing yards. Williams could be headed for a big day against a struggling Dallas secondary if Chicago can give him clean pockets. Dallas has allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt, the third-highest passer rating, and the highest CPOE. Dallas ranks 13th in pressure rate. The Bears rank 17th in pressure rate allowed. When pressured, Williams has only 5.0 yards per attempt and a 34.8 passer rating (third-worst). Williams’ range of outcomes this week is wider than most will expect because his week will depend heavily upon his offensive line.
As the QB20 in fantasy points per game, Kyler Murray hasn’t managed a QB1 performance this season. Murray ranks 19th in yards per attempt, 13th in CPOE, 21st in catchable target rate, and 17th in fantasy points per dropback. He is also ninth in rushing yards per game and 14th in rushing attempts per game among quarterbacks. Murray doesn’t have any rushing scores yet despite having two red zone rushing attempts. Murray could log his first QB1 performance of the season this week. The 49ers’ pass defense isn’t terrifying. They rank 15th in success rate per dropback while giving up the 13th-highest CPOE and 11th-highest passer rating. Murray should have time in the pocket this week against a defense that ranks 17th in pressure rate.
Oh, what a world. Daniel Jones is the QB2 in fantasy points per game. No, that’s not a typo. Jones leads all quarterbacks in yards per attempt while ranking sixth in passer rating, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, and ninth in catchable target rate. Don’t worry, some Dimes-esque moments are sprinkled in there as he also has the 12th-highest off-target rate. Jones has averaged 6.5 rushing attempts, 14 rushing yards, and has punched in three touchdowns on the ground. Jones just diced up the Denver defense, so I think he’s fully capable of doing so this week against the Titans. Last week, I think we saw the real Titans’ pass defense as they were torched, giving up 9.0 yards per attempt, a 105.4 passer rating, and an 8.4% CPOE. Tennessee has the 13th-lowest pressure rate, so Jones should have all the time he needs to rip this secondary apart.
Bo Nix played much better in Week 2 as the QB11 in fantasy. There are still some areas that he has to clean up. In Week 1, among 34 qualifying passers, Nix ranked tenth in passer rating, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and 11th in hero throw rate, but he still had some “Ferris Bueller” moments (as Sean Payton would like to say), ranking 20th in catchable target rate and having the 11th-highest off-target rate. Nix has to clean this up, for the Bolts will make him pay for it this week. Just ask Geno Smith about it. The Chargers have allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating and CPOE, and they have forced the fifth-highest rate of offensive drives ending in a turnover.
Jordan Love is the QB16 in fantasy points per game. This isn’t because Love is playing poorly, quite the opposite. It’s because of how the Packers are running their offense, and that Love ranks 27th in dropbacks. If this offense leaned into their passing game, it would be wheels up, but sadly, this is where we are. Love ranks third in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, and fifth in CPOE and fantasy points per dropback. Love should have another highly efficient day in Week 3. Cleveland has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest CPOE.
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