The Primer: Week 3 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL season, aka. “The QB Apocalypse.”

This week, NFL teams might be missing (or will be missing) Jayden Daniels, Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow, J.J. McCarthy, and Justin Fields. We understand that injuries are unfortunately a part of the game, but GOOD LAWD if you’re in a Superflex league, you are likely scrambling to plug the holes in your fantasy football yacht so it doesn’t sink this Sunday.

Luckily for everyone streaming quarterbacks, in Superflex leagues, or playing DFS this week, I have a fairly rosy outlook for many of these backup quarterbacks thrust into starting jobs. It’s going to be another wild week of NFL and fantasy football action. Let’s get dialed in.

Welcome to the Week 3 Primer. Enjoy.

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL

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Fantasy Football Primer

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

• IND -4, O/U 43.5
• Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jonathan Taylor
• Tyler Warren

**Tyler Warren has been listed as questionable (toe). He logged a DNP on Wednesday before managing limited practice sessions on Thursday & Friday. I’m projecting that he suits up. If he plays, you play him.**

Is Tyler Warren playing Week 3? Check out our Are They Playing tool for the probability of injured players suiting up this week

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Daniel Jones (QB)

Oh, what a world. Daniel Jones is the QB2 in fantasy points per game. No, that’s not a typo. Jones leads all quarterbacks in yards per attempt while ranking sixth in passer rating, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, and ninth in catchable target rate. Don’t worry, some Dimes-esque moments are sprinkled in there as he also has the 12th-highest off-target rate. Jones has averaged 6.5 rushing attempts, 14 rushing yards, and has punched in three touchdowns on the ground. Jones just diced up the Denver defense, so I think he’s fully capable of doing so this week against the Titans. Last week, I think we saw the real Titans’ pass defense as they were torched, giving up 9.0 yards per attempt, a 105.4 passer rating, and an 8.4% CPOE. Tennessee has the 13th-lowest pressure rate, so Jones should have all the time he needs to rip this secondary apart.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Tony Pollard‘s role and usage have been awesome, but it hasn’t translated into much in fantasy (yet). He has played 89% of the snaps in both games this season while averaging 19.5 touches and 90.5 total yards. He hasn’t scored a touchdown yet, so the fantasy production hasn’t followed the usage as he is the RB31 in fantasy points per game. Among 50 qualifying backs, Pollard ranks 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard could finally have a breakout day in Week 3 against a run defense that has allowed the fifth-most yards before contact per attempt, the sixth-most yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-most yards per carry to zone runs (Pollard 58% zone).

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Michael Pittman didn’t get the full shadow treatment from Pat Surtain in Week 2, but he did see him on 56.7% of his routes, which did impact his day. Overall, Pittman Jr. has a 20.6% target share with 2.07 yards per route run (60 receiving yards per game) and a 20.8% first-read share. Pittman Jr. is still looking for his first red zone target from Daniel Jones. This could be a strong week for Pittman Jr. against the Titans’ two-high coverage. Tennessee has featured two high at the 12th-highest rate (51.9%). Against two high, Pittman Jr. leads the team with 2.79 yards per route run and ranks second on the team in first-read share (22.7%). Pittman could see shadow coverage this week from L’Jarius Sneed, who followed Davante Adams last week. Adams cooked Sneed (78.6% of routes), securing five of nine targets in his coverage for 100 yards and a score. Pittman can win against Sneed. Among 96 qualifying receivers, Pittman Jr. ranks 25th in separation and 27th in route win rate. Tennessee is 19th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Elic Ayomanor (WR)

Elic Ayomanor is coming off his best game as a pro as the WR24 in fantasy last week. Ayomanor could just be getting started and bust out another strong performance this week. Ayomanor has a 21.3% target share and 26.8% first-read share with 1.44 yards per route run and 0.104 first downs per route run. This week, he faces a Colts’ secondary that has utilized single high with 54.4% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Ayomanor has seen his target share increase to 23.1% with a 32.1% first-read share and 0.091 first downs per route run. Ayomanor is a STRONG flex play this week against a Colts’ secondary that has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers through two games.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

To open the season, Calvin Ridley has seen the usage that we hoped for with a 23% target share, a 29.3% air-yard share, and a 26.8% first-read share, but the production hasn’t been there. Yes, one of those games he did lock horns with Pat Surtain, but he also had another dud last week. Ridley has 1.33 yards per route run and has averaged 42 receiving yards. He has posted only a 0.016 separation score and a 4.8% route win rate, so it’s tough to be too bullish about his outlook this week, but he could definitely be in store for a solid outing with this week’s matchup. The Colts have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers through two games.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Cam Ward (QB)

Cam Ward is a must-sit until he flashes a pulse in fantasy. He has failed to score double-digit fantasy points in his two outings this season. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 34th in yards per attempt, 32nd in passer rating, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, and he has the eighth-highest off-target rate. He’s not contributing enough with his legs to overlook his shortcomings as a passer. In SuperFlex leagues, he’s also not a must-play despite being a quarterback.

Josh Downs (WR)

Josh Downs saw his route share increase last week to 60.5% (up from 48.5%), but that still isn’t good enough to consider him as anything more than a shaky flex play. Downs has a strong 28% target per route run rate, but his 7.1 aDOT, 1.62 yards per route run, and 18.9% first-read share aren’t stout enough metrics to consider flexing him. He’s simply not getting enough usage throughout a game to feel good about him in fantasy right now. Add in that Tennessee has allowed the 11th-lowest passer rating to slot receivers, and Roger McCreary (71.6 passer rating allowed) is playing good football, and Downs becomes a must-sit.

Chig Okonkwo (TE)

Chig Okonkwo is the TE22 in fantasy points per game. He has a 73.3% route share, a 16.4% target share, 0.98 yards per route run, and a 14.6% first-read share. None of those stats make him streamer-worthy this week. The Colts have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and yards per reception to tight ends.

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots

• PIT -2, O/U 44.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Drake Maye

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Aaron Rodgers is the QB14 in fantasy points per game. He should post solid stats this week and could easily be a QB1 for the week. His per-dropback metrics haven’t been amazing, but the Patriots’ pass defense has been struggling. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Rodgers ranks 18th in yards per attempt, 25th in CPOE, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, and 22nd in catchable target rate. The Pats have allowed the highest yards per attempt, the most passing yards per game, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest CPOE. New England also has the 12th-lowest pressure rate, so Rodgers should have time in the pocket to operate.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Rhamondre Stevenson has been the team’s clear lead back, playing 65% of the snaps in both games and three of the five running back red zone rushing attempts. Stevenson has averaged 12.5 touches and 84.5 total yards. He is the RB19 in fantasy points per game. Among 50 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranks 18th in explosive run rate, 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. He should have another strong outing this week against a struggling Pittsburgh run defense. Pittsburgh has allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most rushing yards per game, and the second-highest missed tackle rate. The Steelers have been gashed by gap runs, allowing the second-highest success rate and the highest yards per carry to them. 61.1% of Stevenson’s rushing attempts this season have been gap runs.

D.K. Metcalf (WR)

D.K. Metcalf is the WR37 in fantasy points per game. Metcalf has a 20% target share, a 21.7% air-yard share, 1.66 yards per route run (51.5 receiving yards per game, a red zone target, and a 24.4% first-read share. His -0.177 separation score and 12.9% route win rate are SLIGHTLY concerning, but it’s only two games, so I’m not hitting the panic button, yet. Metcalf should post solid numbers this week against a secondary that has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) might make his debut this week as he has been working back from a hamstring injury. We’ll have to see if he suits up, but I’m not sure if Gonzalez is a full-time player or if he’ll shadow Metcalf, so I can’t knock Metcalf too much this week, even if Gonzalez is active.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

TreVeyon Henderson (RB)

TreVeyon Henderson has been stuck behind Rhamondre Stevenson through two weeks, playing only 31.7-35.2% of the snaps, and I don’t know if that changes this week. Henderson has averaged eight touches and 45.5 total yards. His passing game role has been stable with a 32.1% and 30% route share in each game. Henderson hasn’t been the efficient per-touch back that we thought we were getting, though. He doesn’t have an explosive run yet and has managed only a 13% missed tackle rate and 0.75 yards after contact per attempt. Yes, I know he has only eight carries so far this season, so the sample size is insanely small. I still had to mention it. I don’t see his role growing this week, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t bust at least one big run this week to save his day as a flex play with a good matchup. Pittsburgh has allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most rushing yards per game, and the second-highest missed tackle rate.

Kayshon Boutte (WR)

Through two games, Kayshon Boutte is the only New England wide receiver with a route share above 60% (72.3%). Last week, he scored the touchdown, but he only saw one target. He has a 13% target share, a 31.3% air-yard share, 1.98 yards per route run, and a 15.7% first-read share. With Drake Maye spreading the ball around, Boutte is a volatile flex play with a great matchup. It wouldn’t shock me to see him ball out this week. It also wouldn’t leave my jaw on the floor to see him get only one target again in Week 3. Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Calvin Austin (WR)

Calvin Austin came back to Earth after his big Week 1 with only 3.2 PPR points in Week 2. He’s a volatile flex play with a good matchup this week. Austin has seen one red zone target this season. He has a 13.8% target share, a 51.9% air-yard share, 1.56 yards per route run (46 receiving yards per game), and a 17.8% first-read share. The Patriots have allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers (Austin 50.8% on the perimeter).

Hunter Henry (TE)

Hunter Henry is the TE22 in fantasy points per game. He has a 66.3% route share, a 15.9% target share, 1.36 yards per route run (37.5 receiving yards per game), and a 17.6% first-read share. He’s a decent tight end streaming option again this week. The Steelers have allowed the seventh-most yards per reception and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Drake Maye is spreading the targets around, so Henry is probably a little more volatile than he might seem on paper. After eight targets in Week 1, he had only three targets in Week 2.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

If you’re desperate for a tight end streaming option, Pat Freiermuth is on the fringe of this discussion for Week 3. Freiermuth has had a 50.7% route share, a 10.8% target share, 29.5 receiving yards per game (1.59 yards per route run, an 11.1% first-read share, and a red zone target. He has been the more traditional tight end, while Jonnu Smith has been the designed target option. The Patriots have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and the third-most yards per reception to tight ends.

Jonnu Smith (TE)

Through two games, Jonnu Smith has a 52.1% route share, a 15.4% target share (-1.2 aDOT), 21 receiving yards per game (1.11 yards per route run), one red zone target, and a 17.8% first-read share. If you’re struggling for a tight end to play this week, Smith is on the LOW end of the tight end streaming radar. The Patriots have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and the third-most yards per reception to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Jaylen Warren took over as Pittsburgh’s lead back last week with 58.1% of the snaps, 18 touches, and 134 total yards. Warren is currently the RB13 in fantasy points per game. He has a 28.8% route share and a 9.2% target share. We haven’t seen the usual per-touch brilliance from Warren so far this season, with only a 16% missed tackle rate and 1.96 yards after contact per attempt (zero explosive runs). The missed tackle rate is solid but not awe-inspiring. Warren will have a tough day on the ground this week, but he can make up for that through the air. New England has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-fewest yards after contact per attempt. The Pats, however, have allowed the sixth-most yards per reception and the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs.

Stefon Diggs (WR)

In Week 2, Stefon Diggs had only a 46.7% route share despite seeing a 21.7% target share and 23.8% first-read share. The Patriots had only one receiver eclipse a 55% route share. Maybe that changes in Week 3, but with Diggs’ playing time up in the air, he’s a sit for me this week. New England could easily still deploy this wide receiver by committee approach for another week, which caps Diggs’ ceiling and makes his floor basement-level.

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL

New York Jets vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• TB -6.5, O/U 43.5
• New York Jets vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bucky Irving
• Garrett Wilson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tyrod Taylor (QB)

Tyrod Taylor will get the start this week with Justin Fields dealing with a concussion. The last time we saw Taylor make starts in the NFL was in 2023. In those four games, he was the QB22, QB7, QB11, and QB10 in weekly scoring. He averaged 6.7 rushing attempts and 31.7 rushing yards per game. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 11th in yards per attempt, 22nd in passer rating, fourth in CPOE, first in highly accurate throw rate, and second in hero throw rate. It was quietly impressive stuff. Taylor should post solid QB2 numbers this week with the possibility that he gives Fantasy GMs a QB1 performance. The Bucs have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game, the seventh-highest yards per attempt, and the ninth-highest success rate per dropback.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Through two games, Baker Mayfield is the QB8 in fantasy points per game. The 36 rushing yards per game he has averaged have helped, no doubt. With Mayfield dealing with a knee issue after Week 2, he is likely to decrease his rushing. Mayfield has been playing YOLO ball, ranking tenth in passer rating and 12th in highly accurate throw rate and hero throw rate, but he is also 30th in catchable target rate. He faces a Jets’ pass defense that has given up the ninth-most yards per attempt and seventh-highest passer rating while ranking 20th in CPOE. Mayfield should have time to operate behind his patchwork offensive line against a defense with the ninth-lowest pressure rate.

Emeka Egbuka (WR)

Emeka Egbuka has run hot with touchdowns through two games (three), which has carried him to WR13 in fantasy points per game. Egbuka has seen an 18.6% target share, a 27.3% air-yard share, and a 20% first-read share with 1.33 yards per route run. Outside of the touchdowns, the rest of his usage isn’t amazing right now, but it’s the first two games of his young NFL career, so let’s take it with a grain of salt. If Sauce Gardner follows Mike Evans, that’s wonderful news for Egbuka, as he’ll see Brandon Stephens (80% catch rate and 145.4 passer rating) and Michael Carter II (57.1% catch rate and 88.4 passer rating) all game. Egbuka should keep the hot streak alive this week. Egbuka should keep the hot streak alive this week. Egbuka has been listed as questionable (hip/groin). He didn’t practice this week until Friday where he had a limited practice session. Egbuka is expected to play this week.

Is Emeka Egbuka playing Week 3? Check out our Are They Playing tool for the probability of injured players suiting up this week

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Rachaad White (RB)

Last week, Rachaad White saw an uptick in snaps with 31.3% of the backfield snaps as he finished with 12 touches and 66 total yards (one score). He remains a touchdown-dependent flex as he had only a 15.6% route share and two targets. White is running extremely well right now with a 42% missed tackle rate and 2.92 yards after contact per attempt. He could see 10-15 touches again this week if the Bucs want to lean on their ground game more with Baker Mayfield dinged up. The Jets have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and rank 18th in stuff rate.

Cade Otton (TE)

Cade Otton is on the streaming tight end radar this week. If Mike Evans gets shadowed by Sauce Gardner, Otton could see a bump in usage. Otton has an 8.6% target share, only 0.40 yards per route run (12.5 receiving yards per game), and an 8.9% first-read share. The Jets have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Breece Hall (RB)

Breece Hall is the RB23 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.5 touches and 91.5 total yards per game. He took over the backfield last week, but the blowout nature of that game diluted his snap share. In the first three quarters of the game, Hall played 73.1% of the snaps while handling a 50% route share. Hall has a 21% missed tackle rate and 2.38 yards after contact per attempt. Both are solid per-touch tackle-breaking marks. Hall will need every bit of volume he can get this week with a horrible matchup with the Bucs. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Mike Evans (WR)

Mike Evans has had a brutal matchup of corners to begin the season, but he’s the ultimate buy-low in fantasy right now. His usage and per-route metrics are still FANTASTIC. Among 96 qualifying wide receivers, Evans ranks eighth in separation and fourth in route win rate. Evans has seen a 27.1% target share with a 44.7% air-yard share and 37.8% first-read share. With the touch matchups, he has only produced 1.60 yards per route run and 53.5 receiving yards per game. He also leads the team with three red zone targets. In Week 1, Evans dealt with A.J. Terrell for 54.8% of his routes and was limited to three receptions (five targets) and 28 receiving yards in his coverage. Last week, he had to worry about Derek Stingley, who followed him on 75% of his routes, limiting him to three receptions (nine targets) and 36 receiving yards. This week, he might see shadow coverage from Sauce Gardner. Gardner shadowed D.K. Metcalf in Week 1 (he didn’t shadow in Week 2), limiting Metcalf to one reception (four targets) and 11 receiving yards. Evans will still see plenty of volume and red zone usage, but temper your expectations this week.

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL