Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice: Running Backs
Start’Em
With Tyrone Tracy sidelined, Cam Skattebo should be the Giants’ workhorse again in Week 4. I don’t see him letting go of this job when Tracy returns to the lineup. Last week, Skattebo played 59.1% of the snaps with 16 touches and 121 total yards. He had a 55.3% route share and a 25% target share as the RB5 for the week. He has been a top 24 back in each of the last two games (RB22, RB5). Skattebo is a tackle-breaking behemoth ranking second-best in missed tackles forced per attempt and fourth-best in yards after contact per attempt. He should have no problems imposing his will this week against a run defense that has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the highest missed tackle rate, and has the third-lowest stuff rate.
Javonte Williams is the RB6 in fantasy points per game while averaging 18.6 touches and 95.4 total yards per game. He ranks tenth in snap share, eighth in opportunity share, and 19th in red zone touches. Among 48 qualifying backs, he ranks tenth in explosive run rate and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Dallas has done a good job of opening up holes for him ranking eighth-best in yards before contact per attempt. Williams will have his work cut out for him this week. Green Bay has been a brick wall for opposing backs giving up the third-fewest rushing yards per game and yards after contact per attempt while having the sixth-highest stuff rate. There’s an avenue for Williams to walk away with a good game if Dallas leans into their gap run game. Williams has the sixth-best yards per carry and the second-best success rate with gap runs. Green Bay has allowed the seventh-highest missed tackle rate and the ninth-highest yards per carry to gap runs. Dallas should lean on Williams this week.
Ashton Jeanty saw his role rebound some last week. He had 60% of the snaps played with a 41.2% route share. It was nice to see his route share bump back into the 40% range after dipping to 37.5% last week. He still hasn’t seen more than a 9.3% target share in any game, which is ridiculous. Jeanty is averaging 17.4 touches and only 49 total yards as the RB34 in fantasy points per game. The offensive line hasn’t helped him at all, as they have the seventh-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Jeanty has a decent 4.3% explosive run rate and a strong 26% missed tackle rate, so I still believe that better days are ahead for him, and they could start this week. The Bears have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-highest missed tackle rate, and the highest yards before contact per attempt (3.1!). If the Raiders can keep this game close, Jeanty could easily post his best stat line of the season.
Travis Etienne is the RB9 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged 18 touches and 100.3 total yards. Since Week 2, he has had a 60.3% snap rate, a 36.8% route share, and a 4.9% target share. Etienne has been explosive. Among 48 qualifying backs, Etienne ranks 12th in explosive run rate, 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Etienne should have a solid game this week against a run defense that has allowed the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the third-highest success rate with zone runs (Etienne 52.2% zone).
After Rhamondre Stevenson‘s two fumbles last week, TreVeyon Henderson is expected to assume a bigger role this week. Stevenson fumbled once in the first quarter and then again to open the third quarter. After he put the ball on the ground the second time, Henderson played 72.2% of the snaps with a 63.6% route share (12.5% target share). Last week, he finished with 14 touches and 47 total yards. Henderson hasn’t been amazing on a per-touch basis this season, with zero explosive runs, a 5% missed tackle rate, and only 1.42 yards after contact per attempt, but the Panthers should help those stats this week. Carolina has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and the third-most yards after contact per attempt.
Nick Chubb is the RB30 in fantasy points per game, averaging 13 touches and 57.3 total yards. He has averaged a 50.6% snap rate, 52.3% of the rushing volume, and a 28% route share. He has posted a solid 18% missed tackle rate but only 1.53 yards after contact per attempt. The Texans’ offensive line has done its part on the ground to this point, ranking 11th in yards before contact per attempt, but at this stage of his career, Chubb is more of a “get what’s blocked” type of back. This is a good matchup for Chubb to turn back the clock ever so slightly and look like his former self. Even if for just one week. The Titans have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-most rushing yards per game.
Sit’Em
Chase Brown is the RB31 in fantasy points per game. Cincy pulled their starters in that game, so it throws off his usage numbers. In Weeks 1-2, he played 71-75% of the snaps, averaging 20.5 touches and 58 total yards. Unfortunately, Brown is running behind possibly the worst offensive line in the NFL. They have generated the fewest yards before contact per attempt (0.43) in the NFL. That’ll make it tough for any running back to succeed. Brown has zero explosive runs and 1.96 yards after contact per attempt, but he has a decent 15% missed tackle rate. I don’t see Brown having much luck against Denver. They have allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the 12th-lowest yards before contact per attempt, and the 14th-lowest rushing success rate.
Tony Pollard is the RB27 in fantasy points per game, averaging 19 touches and 80 total yards. He has been a volume hog for Tennessee, but their struggling offense has held him back. He ranks first among backs in snap share, second in opportunity share, and sixth in carries, but he’s only 28th in red zone touches (three). His tackle-breaking metrics have dipped as we’ve moved through the season with zero explosive runs, a 9% missed tackle rate, and only 2.24 yards after contact per attempt. Pollard has a good matchup this week against Houston, but I don’t know if he’ll be able to take advantage of it. Houston has allowed the second-highest missed tackle rate, the 11th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and ranks 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard should flirt with 16-20 touches, so here’s to hoping that volume and talent can overcome.
Rhamondre Stevenson‘s workload this week is up in the air. He was parked on the bench last week after two fumbles, and during drills this week in practice, he was the third running back up behind TreVeyon Henderson and Antonio Gibson. The Mike Vrabel doghouse can be cold and unforgiving. I wouldn’t be shocked if Stevenson only saw a handful of touches this week, so if you’re plugging Stevenson into a lineup because of the matchup with Carolina, just understand you could be punching your own ticket for the pain train. Outside of the fumbles, Stevenson has been quite good this season with a 27% missed tackle rate and 2.86 yards after contact per attempt. If Stevenson can get on the field, he should have a nice day. Carolina has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-highest explosive run rate, and the second-most yards after contact per attempt.
Good lawd, how much of a disappointment has Isiah Pacheco been this season? The Chiefs refused to utilize him, and he hasn’t been amazing when they have. He has played 50-58% of the snaps weekly and averaged 9.6 touches and 35 total yards. Pacheco has zero explosive runs and only a 12% missed tackle rate. It has been tough to watch. Pacheco had a wonderful matchup last week, and it didn’t matter. The same is true for this week. Baltimore has given up the third-most rushing yards per game, the highest yards after contact per attempt, and logged the second-lowest stuff rate. If you’re still willing to flex Pacheco again at this point, godspeed.
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