Josh Shepardson | Thu, Sep 25th 2025, 3:51am EDT

MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Thursday (9/25)

Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate starts at 6:40 p.m. ET and has six games at DraftKings. It starts at 7:05 p.m. ET and has five games at FanDuel. The suggested pick ’em choices from Underdog are also from the six-game slate.

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Carlos Rodon (SP – NYY) vs. CWS

Carlos Rodon is rolling. According to FanGraphs, Rodon has tallied the following statistics in his previous five starts spanning 31 innings.

2.03 ERA
2.67 xERA
3.53 xFIP
3.79 SIERA
1.00 WHIP
Three wins
Five quality starts
12.6 SwStr%
27.7 CSW%
104 stuff+
100 location+
102 pitching+

Rodon has a favorable matchup and incredible betting info tonight.

The White Sox are tied for 18th in wRC+ (93) with a 23.0 K% versus lefties and 25th in wRC+ (91) with a 23.7 K% on the road in 2025. Chicago was also 25th in wRC+ (86) with a 24.1 K% in the previous 30 days. As a result, the Bronx Bombers are listed as massive -310 favorites, and the game’s total is 8.5 runs.

Parker Messick (SP – CLE) vs. DET

Parker Messick isn’t hitting a rookie wall. Instead, he’s cruising. In the lefty rookie’s previous five starts spanning 28 innings, Messick has had the following statistics.

2.25 ERA
2.35 xERA
3.27 xFIP
3.52 SIERA
1.32 WHIP
Three wins
Three quality starts
3.4 BB%
21.6 K%
11.7 SwStr%
31.6 CSW%
95 stuff+
111 location+
107 pitching+

Messick’s matchup is mixed.

The Tigers are second in wRC+ (115) with a 21.9 K% versus lefties this year. However, they’re also tied for 20th in wRC+ (94) with a 24.0 K% on the road this year, and Detroit was 24th in wRC+ (87) with a 25.8 K% in the previous 30 days. Two out of three applicable splits are optimal, and as Meatloaf once sang, two out of three ain’t bad.

Michael Lorenzen (SP – KC) at LAA

Michael Lorenzen is strictly a matchup-driven SP2 in GPPs, with a bargain salary. The Angels are 26th in wRC+ (92) with a 27.1 K% versus righties and tied for 21st in wRC+ (92) with a 26.8 K% at home this season. They are also 29th in wRC+ (76) with a 31.9 K% in the previous 30 days.

Lorenzen’s full-season and recent stats are dreadful. Nevertheless, Lorenzen has nine quality starts in 26 appearances (25 starts), and he’s struck out at least five batters in 13 starts. So, Lorenzen has some modest upside in him. Finally, the Royals are listed at -110, and the game’s total is 9.0 runs. Thus, it’s essentially a pick ’em, and the game’s total tilts toward hitter-friendly, but it’s not terrifying.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Home (T-Mobile Park)
Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/SEA -205

The Mariners have a Charmin-soft matchup tonight. Bradley Blalock isn’t just a victim of pitching his home games at Coors Field. Instead, Blalock has a putrid 5.59 ERA, 5.45 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, 11.2 BB% and 15.5 K% in 46.2 innings on the road since last season. Blalock also coughed up an eye-popping 1.93 HR/9 in those innings on the road. As a bonus, Colorado’s relievers have the second-highest ERA this season.

Home (Progressive Field)
Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/CLE -164

Roster Resource projects Keider Montero to start for the Tigers tonight. Montero has a 4.69 ERA, 4.31 xFIP and 1.42 WHIP in 71 innings on the road since last season. The 25-year-old hurler also has a 4.48 ERA, 4.73 xERA, 4.60 xFIP, 4.62 SIERA and 1.40 WHIP in 19 appearances (11 starts) this year. Cleveland’s switch-hitters and lefties are the most appealing stacking options against Montero, as the right-handed pitcher has coughed up a .391 wOBA to 177 left-handed batters this year.

Core Studs

Josh Naylor has recorded a .348 OBP, .197 ISO, .351 wOBA and 128 wRC+ against righties since 2023.
Julio Rodriguez has hit 17 homers with 41 runs, 44 RBIs, 11 stolen bases, a .336 OBP, .380 wOBA, .376 xwOBA and 153 wRC+ in 262 plate appearances in the second half.
Eugenio Suarez has rattled off 47 round-trippers with 89 runs, 113 RBIs, four stolen bases, a .302 OBP, .298 ISO, .349 wOBA, .327 xwOBA and 126 wRC+ in 636 plate appearances this season.

Value Plays/Punts

Jorge Polanco has hit four homers with 12 runs, 15 RBIs, a .350 OBP, .277 ISO, .391 wOBA, .359 xwOBA and 160 wRC+ in his previous 103 plate appearances.
Dominic Canzone has launched 10 long-balls with a .347 OBP, .222 ISO, .372 wOBA and 147 wRC+ in 191 plate appearances against righties this season.
Bo Naylor has a .297 OBP, .198 ISO, .305 wOBA and 97 wRC+ against righties since 2023, which is appealing for a catcher at his salary on DraftKings.

Thursday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Jose Ramirez (3B, DH – CLE): 8.5 Fantasy Points – Higher

Jose Ramirez has tallied a .348 OBP, .213 ISO, .350 wOBA and 128 wRC+ against righties since 2023. He’s also in good form. In Ramirez’s previous 109 plate appearances, he’s hit four homers with 20 runs, 14 RBIs, four stolen bases, a .358 OBP, .221 ISO, .358 wOBA, .360 xwOBA and 132 wRC+.

Steven Kwan (OF – CLE): 7.5 Fantasy Points – Higher

Steven Kwan has recorded a .351 OBP, .128 ISO, .333 wOBA and 115 wRC+ against righties since 2023. Cleveland’s leadoff hitter has hit one homer with 16 runs, 15 RBIs, seven stolen bases, a .366 OBP, .090 ISO, .334 wOBA, .349 xwOBA and 115 wRC+ in his previous 124 plate appearances.

Julio Rodriguez (OF – SEA): 9.5 Fantasy Points – Higher

In addition to J-Rod’s big second half, which I highlighted above, he has a track record of crushing righties. Rodriguez has amassed a .328 OBP, .183 ISO, .337 wOBA and 124 wRC+ against righties since 2023.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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