Analyzing NFL air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.
Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football. I hope you will join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways
Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool that is now freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.
This list represents the top 50 wide receivers from most to fewest air yards. From Tyquan Thornton‘s 169 air yards all the way down to Kendrick Bourne‘s 43 air yards. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.
Showcasing all these pieces of data together provides an opportunity for a quick review of this chart and yields a significant number of takeaways after Week 3. In this weekly piece of analysis, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this week’s dataset.
Week 3 Air Yards and Air Yards% Data
Top Takeaways From Week 3 Air Yards Data
Sell High on Tyquan Thornton
This is the second straight week Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyquan Thornton has recorded exactly 169 air yards and a touchdown. His average depth of target (aDOT) during those two weeks has been at least 19 yards both times. And this is all on top of Week 1, when he was ninth in the league in air yards. Altogether, Thornton has been a top-10 receiver in air yards every week this season. It shows both the trust that Patrick Mahomes has in him and the Chiefs’ commitment to get back to the deep pass this year.
That’s why it’s time to sell.
The market for Thornton will literally never be better. He has proven to be a strong fantasy scorer, but his circumstances are about to change drastically. The Chiefs will likely get Xavier Worthy back this week, and are less than four weeks away from welcoming Rashee Rice back to the field. Unless the Chiefs are going to deploy 3-WR sets where two of them are the deep option, Thornton’s time on the field will decrease.
Thornton’s 26% target share and 54% air yards share are both very strong numbers, and hopefully can help boost his trade value.
Help Is on the Way for Malik Nabers
You don’t need me to give any special analysis to see what a discrepancy Malik Nabers had in Week 3 between his air yards and his receiving yards. A robust 146 air yards and just 13 receiving yards. Russell Wilson (unless he is playing the Dallas Cowboys) simply can not connect reliably anymore, which is why the New York Giants made the move to Jaxson Dart. Wilson leads all quarterbacks in air yards, but is 24th in true completion percentage and 32nd in clear pocket catchable pass rate, according to PlayerProfiler.
Simply put, Dart can’t be any worse, which is part of the reason why New York made the move. The hope for the Giants — and for fantasy football managers — is that Dart can provide some more accuracy and laser focus on Nabers going forward. Nabers was fifth in air yards this week, but was just 48th in receiving yards. At least the Giants were clear-headed enough to realize that it simply can’t happen again.
Parker Washington Is Who We Thought Travis Hunter Would Be
Parker Washington is probably not a name you paid attention to in the offseason and during fantasy football draft season. We were all so focused on Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter and the new Liam Coen offense that players on the periphery, like Washington, were an afterthought. Well, after Week 3, we may want to start looking more in his direction and a lot less at Hunter.
Hunter’s offensive snap percentage in his three games has gone from 64% to 59% to 53%. Washington played on 71% of snaps in Week 3 and drew 11 targets, including the team’s only red-zone target to wide receivers. Meanwhile, Hunter’s targets have dipped from eight to six to just two this week. Hunter has been needed more on defense after injuries to that unit recently. Washington was able to crack the top 10 in air yards this week. With a little more accuracy from Trevor Lawrence moving forward, he might just be fantasy-relevant.
Garrett Wilson‘s New Normal?
Which wide receiver had the lowest aDOT in the league in Week 3? That would be Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets, who turned 13 targets from Tyrod Taylor into just 75 air yards (or 5.8 yards per attempt). He caught 10 balls for 84 yards and a touchdown, which begs the question, “Is this the best way to use Garrett Wilson when Justin Fields returns?” Garrett Wilson is built to be a more down-the-field receiver, but Fields is not the most accurate passer in the world, and might need overwhelming volume to get it done in this offense.
Fields has completed only 57.6% of his passes and is 30th in true completion percentage, including 22nd in clean pocket completion percentage. Wilson is the only real pass-catching option on this team, so if the Jets are going to make him successful, why not just pepper him with targets fewer than eight yards from the line of scrimmage? Wilson can use his speed to turn upfield and gain his yards and scores that way.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
