Welcome back, NFL DFS fans. Another season and a full slate begin. We open the DFS season with a 12-game slate and hopes and dreams. This weekly article is meant to chase value, projected points over cost. Let’s dive in.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 1
Quarterbacks
While nothing is inspiring about Trevor Lawrence’s overall QB27 finish last season, there are some reasons to look to him this week. First off, the addition of Liam Coen as the Jaguars’ new head coach. Coen helped Baker Mayfield in his return to both stability and production, which led him to a QB4 overall finish last season. Second, the matchup is good for forcing him to pass.
Welcome back, NFL DFS fans. Another season and a full slate begin. We open the DFS season with a 12-game slate and hopes and dreams. This weekly article is meant to chase value, projected points over cost. Let’s dive in.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 1
Quarterbacks
While nothing is inspiring about Trevor Lawrence’s overall QB27 finish last season, there are some reasons to look to him this week. First off, the addition of Liam Coen as the Jaguars’ new head coach. Coen helped Baker Mayfield in his return to both stability and production, which led him to a QB4 overall finish last season. Second, the matchup is good for forcing him to pass.
Carolina’s defense improved over the offseason, yes, but their offense also made some improvements. This game could end up being more back and forth than the over/under suggests. Third, he’s healthy to start the season. In fully healthy games last season, Lawrence was the QB15 in points per game until he got injured.
With just over a 15% current rostership projected on DtaftKings, Lawrence fits more into the GPP landscape than he does in cash games and has a few different stacking options.
Bo Nix is entering his sophomore season and found some success in the latter part of his rookie season. Nix would ultimately finish as the QB9 in fantasy points per game. He also finished as the QB8 in rushing yards, which was more surprising at the NFL level. From Week 10 on, Nix averaged 252.75 passing yards and 2.62 passing touchdowns on a per-game basis.
The Broncos open the season against the Tennessee Titans, who are currently rated as a middle-of-the-road defense against the position. With an expected rostership just under 10% on FanDuel, Nix is a safe floor GPP type of play who can also support his upside with his legs.
Running Backs
A healthy Ken Walker dominates the Seahawks’ backfield in touches. In fully healthy games, he averaged 15.6 carries and 4.1 targets. Walker also has that home-run play ability that can swing a matchup on any given touch. His seasonal totals from 2024 paint a poor picture. Walker missed a total of six complete games and partial games throughout the season. His 3.7 yards per attempt falls well below the 4.35 average he posted during his first two seasons.
The 49ers are currently the second-most attractive matchup against the running back position, per DraftKings. Walker is healthy, the matchup is friendly and the Seahawks will want to establish the run early and often for clock control. Walker handled 20 carries and three targets in the season opener last season. The expected volume exceeds the cost, propelling Walker into value territory to start the season. He can be used in both cash games and GPP contests.
The recipe for fantasy football success for the running back position consists of several ingredients. First, a good offense. The Bengals have that. That creates scoring opportunities. Second, volume. Volume remains king for the position related to fantasy points. Third, a matchup that entices the role. In this case, if playing with a lead, the Bengals will lean more on Chase Brown to manage the clock. Brown had a breakout season in 2024 and finished as a top-10 scorer at the position in six of the last eight weeks.
While the Bengals are typically known to start slow to open a season, with a fully healthy Burrow (for what feels like the first time) in Week 1, the expected volume for Brown is relative to the cost. He is a solid floor-play with scoring upside who can be used in both cash games and GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Digging a little deep here, and I’m good with it. Baker Mayfield played his best football with this squad last season. While the offense largely remains the same, there is one glaring missing piece… Chris Godwin. Emeka Egbuka is the all-time receiving yards title holder for Ohio State. Despite him not taking an NFL snap yet, the expectation is for him to have a role with Godwin sidelined. He has impressed in camp and during preseason practice. He’s been building a rapport with Mayfield. All signs point up for the rookie to start making a splash early. And if he does, this may be the cheapest we see him during the course of the DFS season.
The Falcons really did work during the offseason to improve their defense, so we may see a more competitive squad than we have grown accustomed to. However, on paper, it remains a fantasy viable matchup, a good price for the role and upside potential. Egbuka is a GPP play best used by those who submit multiple lineups, as he could be that one cheap option that propels a team to the top, but has no guarantee to do so.
This is a good matchup with a talented wide receiver, who should emerge as his team’s alpha receiver. There’s a healthy Kyler Murray, a good game script and a receiver in his second year who has already shown flashes of great play. While there is a lot to like here, there is some caution involved. Can the Saints, with Spencer Rattler under center, create enough offense to put Murray in a position where he needs to pass? That is the only hesitation with this play. That said, Marvin Harrison Jr. could beat his cost in the first half.
Harrison is a value due to the matchup and the other conditions mentioned before, and his price point is affordable enough to work into lineups. He can be used in cash games and GPPs, although preferred in a multiple lineup setting.
Tight Ends
Ugh… here we are again. All the hope of 2021 manifested in Week 1 of the DFS season. However, at least one analyst retains some forlorn hope of value over cost. At $4,300, Kyle Pitts at least represents a cost factor that mitigates the risk but still represents a potential unrealized return.
Tampa Bay is going to score. The Falcons have made some investments in their defense, and to their credit, on paper, it looks positive. That said, the Buccaneers have a potent offense and will put points on the board. Michael Penix Jr. is going to have to attack through the air to keep up, and one of his key targets should be the big man over the middle. Mr. Pitts enters from stage left.
The slate is either pay up or find the value for the tight end position. In looking for values, Pitts is in the conversation. He is best utilized in multiple lineup constructions and GPP contests.
New team, new scheme. But Evan Engram provides a valuable role. He makes his Broncos debut and immediately slides into the value conversation. He has the athleticism, the catch ability and operates over the middle where Bo Nix likes to throw. Courtland Sutton is the primary target, and the Broncos will rely on defense to keep the Titans down. Early game script favors defense and a couple of early scores.
In a matchup that favors the Broncos, Engram will do his damage early and coast through the rest of the game with far more sparse of a target share. This pick is for early targets and a potential touchdown.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
