Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Justin Herbert is the QB9 in fantasy points per game, while ranking third in passing yards per game, seventh in CPOE, eighth in highly accurate throw rate, and 11th in hero throw rate. He has averaged 4.3 rushing attempts and 26.6 rushing yards per game. Herbert will face what has become a softer Minny pass defense, as they have allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt and 11th-highest passer rating while sitting at 15th in adjusted completion rate. The Vikings can still bring the heat with their pass rush, though, ranking second in blitz rate and third in pressure rate. Herbert should navigate the pocket fairly well as he ranks 12th in yards per attempt and 14th in passer rating against the blitz.
Since arriving in Cincy, Joe Flacco has been the QB15 and QB6 in weekly scoring. Over the last two games, among 32 qualifying passers, he ranks fifth in passing yards per game, eighth in adjusted completion rate, tenth in highly accurate throw rate, and 15th in fantasy points per dropback. Flacco could easily flirt with QB1 production again this week. The Jets’ pass defense has been underwhelming this season allowing the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing touchdowns, and the fourth-highest passer rating. Flacco should have time to operate against a pass rush that has the tenth-lowest pressure rate.
Jaxson Dart…franchise changer. The aura farming rookie swag machine has been the QB4 in fantasy points per game since Week 4. The last time he faced this defense, he was the QB3 in fantasy for the week. After what we all witnessed last week against Denver (QB3 for the week), no one should be counting him out in any matchup. He has averaged 8.8 rushing attempts and 44.5 rushing yards per game with three scores on the ground. Since Week 4, among 38 qualifying passers, Dart ranks 28th in highly accurate throw rate, 14th in catchable target rate, 20th in hero throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. He still has a lot of growth as a passer that needs to occur because during this stretch, he also has the sixth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. Dart can excel again this week, but it won’t be an easy road to travel. Philly has allowed the tenth-fewest yards per attempt and the second-lowest adjusted completion rate while also ranking 17th in success rate per dropback and passing yards per game allowed.
After last week’s game, Bo Nix has climbed up to the QB9 in fantasy points per game. While Nix had a monster game last week, that doesn’t change the fact that Nix has regressed from his rookie season. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 33rd in yards per attempt, 36th in CPOE, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, 36th in catchable target rate, and he has the sixth-highest off-target rate. All of that matters little this week against the horrendous Dallas pass defense. The Cowboys can’t stop anyone through the air, so I doubt they slow down Nix this week. Dallas has allowed the second-most passing yards per game and passing touchdowns, the fifth-highest success rate per dropback, and the highest CPOE.
Fantasy Football Deep Plays to Consider
It looks like Tyrod Taylor will get the starting nod this week for New York. Taylor has one full start this season, where he finished as the QB9 for the week and piled up 48 rushing yards. Taylor could sneak into QB1 territory this week. Taylor’s deeper passing metrics have been impressive. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks first in highly accurate throw rate, 11th in catchable target rate, and second in adjusted completion rate. Taylor could shred a Bengals’ pass defense that has allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing yards per game, and the second-highest success rate per dropback. Another big factor that could lead to his success is the fact that Cincy has the fifth-lowest pressure rate. It’ll come in handy as Taylor operates behind New York’s Swiss cheese offensive line, which has allowed the highest pressure rate.
Michael Penix is the QB29 in fantasy points per game and hasn’t finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring since Week 4. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 13th in passing yards per game, 20th in yards per attempt, 38th in catchable target rate, and he has the sixth-highest off-target rate. Penix has had an up-and-down season with more downs. If Bijan Robinson doesn’t rumble for 250 yards this week and score four touchdowns, Penix should have a nice outing against Miami’s clueless pass defense. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the highest passer rating and success rate per dropback, and the 11th-highest CPOE.
Jordan Love has finished as a QB2 in every week this season, except for one. The Packers’ offense limits him weekly as they are seventh in red zone rushing rate and sixth in neutral rushing rate. Without rushing equity to help him out in fantasy, Love is just another mid-range QB2. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, 17th in fantasy points per dropback, and 16th in hero throw rate. He should post at least a solid stat line this week against a Steelers’ pass defense that has been woefully underperforming, giving up the most passing yards per game, the 11th-highest yards per attempt, and the 14th-highest success rate per dropback.
Aaron Rodgers faces his old team as the QB14 in fantasy points per game. He has two QB1 weeks this season (QB7, QB7). Among 41 qualifying passers, Rodgers ranks 23rd in passing yards per game, 13th in yards per attempt, and ninth in highly accurate throw rate and fantasy points per dropback. Pittsburgh’s game plan limits Rodgers’ fantasy success weekly, as they are 17th in neutral passing rate and have the 11th-slowest neutral pace. Rodgers is a mid-range QB2 with a tough matchup this week. Green Bay has limited passers to the lowest yards per attempt, the tenth-lowest success rate per dropback, and the 11th-lowest CPOE.
Caleb Williams is the QB13 in fantasy points per game, but his fantasy season is being propped up by two huge games in the opening three weeks of the season and some rushing production, which has fallen off as we moved through the season. He hasn’t rushed for more than 27 yards in a game since Week 1. Williams has three QB1 weekly finishes this season (QB9, QB1, QB10), but has finished as the QB20 or lower in his three other games (QB20, QB24, QB27). Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 16th in yards per attempt, 35th in adjusted completion rate, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, and he has the third-highest off-target rate. Williams couldn’t take advantage of a plus matchup last week against the Saints. Before their bye, the Ravens held Matthew Stafford to 181 passing yards, 6.9 yards per attempt, and 0.6% CPOE. I know it’s a one-game sample, but if Baltimore has figured out some of their defensive struggles, Williams is in trouble. At best, he has another plus matchup this week, but as last week showed, I don’t know if he can take advantage of a plus matchup at this point.
Sit’em
Tua Tagovailoa is expected to be under center this week for Miami. It has been a rough season for Tagovailoa as the QB30 in fantasy points per game. He has one weekly finish above QB17 this season and hasn’t managed at least double-digit fantasy points in a game since Week 5. Among 41 qualifying passers, he ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 35th in aDOT, 30th in fantasy points per dropback, and he has the 14th-highest off-target rate. I don’t even know if Tagovailoa will finish this week’s game without getting benched again. Sit him. Atlanta has allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the fewest passing yards per game, and the 11th-lowest success rate per dropback.
I’m not starting Cam Ward in any format. Last week was only the second outing this season in which he managed double-digit fantasy points. Ward still has zero games this season with multiple passing touchdowns, and he hasn’t eclipsed 270 passing yards in any game. Ward also can’t fall back on any rushing production with zero games this season with more than 25 rushing yards. Ward has had a tough rookie season and has little help around him to change the outlook moving forward.
Dillon Gabriel isn’t fantasy relevant. Last week was the last straw if you were holding out any hope. If you can only put up 116 passing yards, 6.4 yards per attempt, and zero passing touchdowns against Miami, then all hope is lost. Yes, I know weather played a factor. I’ll change my mind if anyone can point to a strong outing this season for Gabriel? (Crickets) Ok, don’t play Gabriel.
The Houston offense looks broken. C.J. Stroud has only one week this season in which he has finished higher than QB15 in weekly scoring. He has multiple passing touchdowns in only two games and hasn’t logged a game yet this season with more than 244 passing yards. Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks, Stroud ranks 26th in yards per attempt, 40th in CPOE, 26th in catchable target rate, and he has the fourth-highest off-target rate. The 49ers rank 15th in yards per attempt and CPOE, have given up the 12th-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the 13th-highest success rate per dropback. At best, you’re hoping for decent QB2 numbers this week from Stroud.
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