Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Over the last two weeks, Mason Taylor has been a focal point of the Jets’ passing attack as the TE9 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 4, Taylor has a 26% target share, 66 receiving yards per game (1.89 yards per route run), and a 27.8% first-read share. Those are elite usage numbers. Taylor looks primed to continue the hot streak in Week 6. Garrett Wilson will see shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain, which should push Justin Fields to funnel more of the passing offense through Taylor, possibly. Denver has the ninth-highest single high rate (56.8%). Over the last two weeks against single high, Taylor has a 30.8% target share, 2.60 yards per route run, and a 33.3% first-read share. Denver is only 18th in targets faced for tight ends, but they have allowed the seventh-highest yards per reception.
Hunter Henry has been a wonderful draft value for Fantasy GMs this season as the TE8 in fantasy points per game. He ranks first in deep targets and second in red zone targets among tight ends. Henry has an 18.2% target share, 1.88 yards per route run (50 receiving yards per game), and a 20.6% first-read share. He should destroy the Saints this week, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Juwan Johnson has an 18.8% target share, 1.39 yards per route run (44.2 receiving yards per game), and a 23.1% first-read share. This week, he’ll face a Patriots’ pass defense that has the sixth-highest rate of single-high (60.4%). Against single high, Johnson has a 21.4% target share, 1.58 yards per route run, and a 25% first-read share. Last week, with Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau active, Johnson still retained an 81.3% route share as Hill and Moreau combined to only run six routes. Maybe that changes in the weeks to come, but Johnson should still be viewed as the team’s full-time starting tight end. Johnson is a strong TE1 facing a defense that has allowed the second-most receiving yards and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
David Njoku is the TE16 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in deep targets and 11th in red zone targets among tight ends. He’s coming off a season-best performance last week with Dillon Gabriel under center. In Dillon Gabriel‘s first start, Njoku had a 24.2% target share (led the team), 67 receiving yards (2.39 yards per route run), and a 28.6% first-read share (led the team). Njoku was the TE7 in fantasy for the week. Njoku could build upon last week’s performance in Week 6 against a Steelers’ pass defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
Last week, on my first pass through the data and looking at the matchup for Zach Ertz, I thought he was going to smash, but when I looked at the coverage data further for the Bolts, I realized I was wrong and pivoted with last Friday’s update. I hope you checked back into the Primer on Friday and read my update because I was fading Ertz, and that move was correct, as he had only one target and zero fantasy points. This is the week to go back to Ertz with the Bears’ coverage usage. They have the second-highest two high usage in the NFL (62.6%). They have utilized two high at least 56.5% of their defensive snaps weekly. This season against two high, Ertz has a 20.8% target share, 2.26 yards per route run, and a 32.3% first-read share. The Bears are a neutral matchup for Ertz, ranking 17th in fantasy points per game and 20th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
Sit’em
In Dillon Gabriel‘s first start, Fannin Jr. had a 12.1% target share, a 47.2% route share, 13 receiving yards (0.76 yards per route run), and a 14.3% first-read share. It was Fannin Jr.’s lowest route share of the season. The touchdown he secured saved his fantasy day. With the lackluster usage in last week’s game, I would have to be quite desperate to start Fannin Jr. this week, but the matchup is nice, so I understand it if people have no other choice and are banking on another score from Fannin Jr. this week. The Steelers have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
Darren Waller is BACK! Over the last two weeks, he has finished as the TE4 and TE6 in weekly scoring while seeing three red zone targets and scoring three touchdowns. Overall, he has a 53.7% route share with a 14.8% target share with 52.5 receiving yards per game (2.92 yards per route run) and a 19.6% first-read share. Last week, he saw his route share increase to 65%. Waller could live in the 60-70% route share area code weekly, which is fine. I’m not projecting for Waller to have a big game in Week 6, though. Since Week 3, the Bolts have the tenth-highest single high rate (57.4%). Since Week 4, against single high, Waller has had only one target (4% target share) and a 5.9% first-read share. The Chargers have been one of the toughest teams against tight ends, giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the fourth-fewest receiving yards to the position. Waller needs a touchdown to save his Week 6.
Kyle Pitts has been a nice surprise this season as the TE9 in fantasy points per game. He has only one deep target and a red zone target so far. Pitts has an 18.2% target share, 1.64 yards per route run (51.3 receiving yards per game), and a 15.7% first-read share. Fantasy GMs shouldn’t expect much from Pitts this week, though. The Bills have the fourth-highest rate of two high (61%). Against two high, Pitts has seen his target share drop to 15.4% with 1.58 yards per route run and a 14.3% first-read share. Buffalo has been tough on tight ends over the last few seasons. This year, Buffalo has allowed the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and the second-fewest receiving yards to the position. Look for a streamer this week instead of starting Pitts.
Outside of Week 3, Mark Andrews has been unplayable this season. Take out that massive and what unfortunately looks like an outlier game, and he has a 14.9% target share, 14.8 receiving yards per game (0.81 yards per route run), and a 20% first-read share. In his four other games this season, Andrews has averaged only 4.3 PPR points per game with two red zone targets. Maybe he turns it around this week, but I highly doubt it. The Rams are 14th in receiving yards and 16th in yards per reception and schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
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