Friday afternoons are my opportunity to connect with FantasyPros readers and the FantasyPros Discord community. If you haven’t already done so, be sure to join our Discord to get answers to your questions. I host weekly AMAs on Fridays, and other analysts also routinely answer questions. Below were three standout topics from Friday’s busy Week 12 AMA.
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Discord AMA: Week 12
Should Gamers go Back to Sean Tucker This Week?
Sean Tucker steamrolled the Bills for 106 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, two receptions, 34 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Buffalo’s run defense is putrid. Tucker has a much more challenging matchup this week.
The Rams have allowed the third-fewest half-PPR points per game (14.9) to running backs this year. The Buccaneers are also 6.5-point underdogs, which creates game-script risk for Tampa Bay’s early-down running back.
Tucker isn’t a no-brainer start this week. He’s the RB27 in half-PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR), which is an appropriate ranking. He’s a more appealing option than Tyler Allgeier, and it’s a coin flip between him and Bhayshul Tuten.
What’s the Outlook for Ashton Jeanty?
Ashton Jeanty is only the RB19 in half-PPR points per game (12.6) this season. He hasn’t lived up to the expectations that accompanied his average draft position (ADP) over the summer.
Jeanty has a challenging matchup this week. The Browns have allowed the fifth-fewest half-PPR points per game (16.3) to running backs this year. Moreover, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Cleveland has yielded only 3.91 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.
They haven’t been as stout lately, though. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Browns have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (146.8) and 4.89 yards per carry to opponents since Week 7.
The Raiders are 3.5-point favorites at home against the Browns, setting the stage for a potentially favorable game script for Jeanty. In Last Vegas’ two wins this year, Jeanty had 19 and 23 rush attempts. He tallied only 113 rushing yards on his 42 carries in victories, but inefficient rushing yards count as much as efficient ones. Jeanty also scored a rushing touchdown in each win, and he’s hauled in at least three receptions in three straight games. He’s the RB13 in half-PPR ECR, and while a few running backs behind him will likely outscore him, Jeanty is firmly in the RB2 range.
Is Luther Burden an Intriguing Dart Throw?
Through Week 9, Luther Burden’s season high for route participation was 39.4% in Week 6, coming out of Chicago’s Week 5 bye. He bested that with a 46.3% route participation rate in Week 10 before climbing to a 61.1% route participation rate in Week 11. Back-to-back weeks of new-season highs in route participation is outstanding for Burden’s outlook.
The rookie wideout had only five targets, three receptions and 27 scoreless yards against the Vikings. However, Burden’s 0.23 targets per route run (TPRR) were an encouraging data point.
Burden can have a stellar showing against the Steelers this week. The Steelers are fifth in man-coverage rate (36%) and fourth in single-high coverage rate (59.3%) this year. Burden has 0.18 TPRR and 2.76 yards per route run (YPRR) on 17 routes against man and 0.21 TPRR and 3.30 YPRR on 53 routes against single-high coverage this year.
The Steelers have also struggled against wideouts. Pittsburgh has permitted the third-most half-PPR points per game (31.6) to wide receivers this year. Burden’s floor is admittedly low. Still, he’s an intriguing dart throw for wide receiver-needy or Flex-needy gamers.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
