Today marks the 32nd anniversary of the Leon Lett Thanksgiving snow game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Miami Dolphins. In the closing minutes of the game, the Cowboys blocked a Pete Stoyanovich kick that would have ended the game had Lett left the ball alone.
Instead, Lett touched the ball, and the Dolphins recovered the ball post-touch and were granted a chance for a short game-winning kick. Chances are, as you sit down on Thursday to watch the Chiefs and Cowboys, you will see a replay of one of the most infamous kicks in NFL History.
The win kept the Dolphins alive in the playoff race despite losing Dan Marino to an Achilles injury earlier in the season. The Cowboys would overcome the Lett blunder and go on to win their second consecutive Super Bowl, 30-13, over the Buffalo Bills.
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Fantasy Football Kicker Rankings & Start/Sit Advice: Week 13
Widely Available Kickers With Strong Week 12 Performances
Andy Borregales (K – NE) @ Cincinnati: 30% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
The matchup between the Patriots and the Bengals proved to be far closer than some thought, giving Andy Borregales a positive game script that he rode to a week-best 18 fantasy points. It was the rookies’ third double-digit game of the season, and he now has 27 fantasy points in his last two games. I also like him this week at home against the Giants. He’s my eighth-ranked kicker for the week.
Zane Gonzalez (K – ATL) @ New Orleans: 3% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
The journeyman veteran kicker posted 15 fantasy points on the road against the Saints, with a pair of 50-yard kicks in the Super Dome. Although I do not have him in my top 12 this week, I would not be surprised to see Zane Gonzalez score close to 10 points again this week against the Jets.
Widely Rostered Kickers With Dud Week 12 Performances
Chris Boswell (K – PIT) @ Chicago: 92% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
Chris Boswell fell victim to an efficient day for the Pittsburgh offense, leaving him with just four extra point tries and zero field-goal attempts. Although this is his second game of five or fewer points in his last three contests, I anticipate Boswell will bounce back this week against the Bills.
Week 13 Kicker Rankings
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | VS | O/U | Spread | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | Consistency | Weather | K Score** |
| 1 | 2 | Jason Myers | SEA | vs. MIN | 41.5 | -10.5 | 4 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25.5 |
| 2 | 5 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | vs. LV | 41.5 | -9.5 | 20 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 29.5 |
| 3 | 1 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | vs. KC | 51.5 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
| 4 | 6 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | at IND | 44.5 | 4.5 | 12 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 37.5 |
| 5 | 15 | Cairo Santos | CHI | at PHI | 44.5 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 38 |
| 6 | 16 | Harrison Mevis | LAR | at CAR | 45.5 | -10.5 | 8 | 27 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 37.5 |
| 7 | 3 | Tyler Loop | BAL | vs. CIN | 51.5 | -7 | 28 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 46 |
| 8 | 8 | Andy Borregales | NE | vs. NYG | 46.5 | -7.5 | 31 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 47.5 |
| 9 | 4 | Cam Little | JAC | at TEN | 41.5 | -6.5 | 18 | 15 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 48.5 |
| 10 | 7 | Jake Bates | DET | vs. GB | 49.5 | -2.5 | 19 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 48.5 |
| 11 | 9 | Chris Boswell | PIT | vs. BUF | 47.5 | 3.5 | 15 | 29 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 79.5 |
| 12 | 10 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | vs. ARI | 44.5 | -3 | 20 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 49 |
| 13 | 11 | Harrison Butker | KC | at DAL | 51.5 | -3 | 30 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 53 |
| 14 | 13 | Matt Prater | BUF | at PIT | 47.5 | -3.5 | 11 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 40.5 |
| 15 | 17 | Zane Gonzalez | ATL | at NYJ | 39.5 | -2.5 | 12 | 19 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 49.5 |
| 16 | 14 | Wil Lutz | DEN | at WAS | 43.5 | -6.5 | 24 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 54.5 |
| 17 | 12 | Evan McPherson | CIN | at BAL | 51.5 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 73 |
| 18 | 22 | Matt Gay | SF | at CLE | 39.5 | -6.5 | 7 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40.5 |
| 19 | 18 | Brandon McManus | GB | at DET | 49.5 | 2.5 | 25 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 69.5 |
| 20 | 19 | Jake Elliott | PHI | vs. CHI | 44.5 | -7 | 26 | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 81 |
| 21 | 20 | Michael Badgley | IND | vs. HOU | 44.5 | -4.5 | 22 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.5 |
| 22 | 21 | Chad Ryland | ARI | at TB | 44.5 | 3 | 29 | 13 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 67 |
| 23 | 23 | Will Reichard | MIN | at SEA | 41.5 | 10.5 | 16 | 14 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 72.5 |
| 24 | 24 | Blake Grupe | NO | at MIA | 42.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 0 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 44.5 |
| 25 | 25 | Younghoe Koo | NYG | at NE | 46.5 | 7.5 | 32 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 60.5 |
| 26 | 27 | Daniel Carlson | LV | at LAC | 41.5 | 9.5 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 54.5 |
| 27 | 28 | Nick Folk | NYJ | vs. ATL | 39.6 | 2.5 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 51.5 |
| 28 | 29 | Riley Patterson | MIA | vs. NO | 42.5 | -5.5 | 22 | 10 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 58.5 |
| 29 | 30 | Ryan Fitzgerald | CAR | vs. LAR | 45.5 | 10.5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 48.5 |
| 30 | 31 | Andre Szmyt | CLE | vs. SF | 39.5 | 6.5 | 12 | 11 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 67.5 |
| 31 | 26 | Joey Slye | TEN | vs. JAC | 41.5 | 6.5 | 27 | 7 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 79.5 |
| 32 | 32 | Jake Moody | WAS | vs. DEN | 43.5 | 6.5 | 1 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 62.5 |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 30th in red zone efficiency; therefore, Tyler Loop has an RZ EFF score of two. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red-zone efficiency of his offense and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red-zone efficiency and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of FantasyPros’ top-10 expert consensus rankings (ECR) at the kicker position who could be excellent plays in Week 13.
Week 13 Standout Kickers
Cairo Santos (K – CHI) @ Philadelphia: 37% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
I would feel more confident in this pick if the teams were playing in Chicago, but Cairo Santos’ K Score of 38 indicates he is in line for a solid game this week against the Eagles. We just need Caleb Williams not to make too many boneheaded plays as he did against the Steelers so the Bears can stay in a neutral game script.
Harrison Mevis (K – LAR) vs. Carolina: 3% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
After two dud games to start his NFL career, the thick-kicker busted out with 13 points against the Buccaneers on Sunday. Harrison Mevis should have a nice floor this week against the Panthers. This game should be lopsided in Mevis’ favor, and I would not be surprised to see him post at least 10 points.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Harrison Butker (K – KC) vs. Indianapolis: 43% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: K11
- My Rank: K9
- Week 12 Finish: K2
Staying in the flames proved to be the right move with Harrison Butker, as the Chiefs’ defense kept the game close against the Colts, and Butker came through with five field goals. I like him this week against the Bills, so I would not recommend moving from him for another kicker.
Blake Grupe K – NO) vs. Atlanta: 3% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: K30
- My Rank: K12
- Week 12 Finish: K28
The frustrating aspect of this result is the fact that Blake Grupe missed a pair of field goals that would have made him a top-10 fantasy kicker on the week. The K Score proved correct in predicting the opportunities, but Grupe did his best Jake Moody impersonation and shanked a few kicks against the Falcons.
Week 13 Waiver Wire Pickups
- Ka’imi Fairbairn (K – HOU) @ Indianapolis: 35% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
- Cam Little (K – JAX) @ Tennessee: 65% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
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