Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert ranks in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy football lineup in Week 12?
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
Week 12 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
Jakobi Meyers (WR – JAX) @ Arizona Cardinals
- Highest Rank: WR29
- Lowest Rank: WR41
We don’t have confirmation of the availability of Brian Thomas Jr., but he did practice on a limited basis last week, which typically indicates the player will trend towards playing the following week. If Thomas plays, we’ll have yet another weekly shakeup of the Jaguars’ receiving corps. Jakobi Meyers shifted to the Jags’ top receiver in Week 11, and he had a solid performance given the difficult matchup.
This week’s matchup against Arizona is far more agreeable to the pass, but teams facing the Cardinals have consistently won on the ground. That’s less about the Cardinals having a strong pass defense and more about opposing offenses jumping out on the Cardinals early and leaning on the run. When you combine the return of Thomas and the likelihood of the Jags leaning aggressively on the run in this matchup, any receiver is a risky start.
Jacksonville has steadily increased its reliance on the ground game over the past several weeks, and Jags running backs combined for 42 carries last week. If they lean on the run again, Meyers would offer very limited upside this week.
My Projected Finish: WR32
Tre Tucker (WR – LV) vs. Cleveland Broncos
- Highest Rank: WR29
- Lowest Rank: WR41
Week 11 was fantastic for fantasy managers who took a chance on Tre Tucker against Dallas. While there was a clear improvement in Dallas’ defense with their new personnel, Tucker had a strong performance with four receptions on eight targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. While it was great to see this performance, we must evaluate if he’s a reliable option or matchup-dependent.
The Week 12 matchup against Cleveland leans more toward Denver — a game where Tucker had just five fantasy points — than Dallas. The Browns rank in the top 10 in fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and they’ve been a nightmare matchup for quarterbacks with their aggressive pass rush, which likely means we’re in line for an awful performance from Geno Smith. It’s tough to imagine a scenario where the Raiders’ offensive line can handle Myles Garrett and company. Despite the strong Week 11 performance, Tucker is an incredibly risky start this week due to the matchup.
My Projected Finish: WR33
Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA) @ Tennessee Titans
- Highest Rank: RB14
- Lowest Rank: RB24
Kenneth Walker is coming off his best performance of the season, oddly enough, in the Seahawks’ most difficult defensive matchup of the season against the L.A. Rams. Before Week 11, Walker had five straight games of fewer than 10 PPR points. He wasn’t struggling in terms of efficiency, but the Seahawks had committed to a true committee with goal-line favoritism to Zach Charbonnet. Mike Macdonald said that after Walker’s Week 11 performance, he’s earned more opportunities to get the ball. However, do we truly trust Macdonald’s words?
This week’s matchup against Tennessee should be a great opportunity for Seattle to lean on the run and for Walker to have a high-upside game. The Titans are a friendly matchup, and this game should provide ample goal-line opportunities. If Walker gets them, he’ll have a big week. Naturally, we’re seeing a significant gap in Walker’s rankings between fantasy managers who are fully on board with his re-emergence and those who are a bit skeptical. However, given injuries and lack of depth at running back this week, Walker may be risky, but he’s a potential must-start.
My Projected Finish: RB21
More Risky Starts
Week 12 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Woody Marks (RB – HOU) vs. Buffalo Bills
- Highest Rank: RB14
- Lowest Rank: RB22
Woody Marks’ fantasy points have been a bit chaotic in recent weeks, but he’s a safe play with the Texans finally treating him as the lead back in back-to-back weeks. While his Week 11 fantasy production was underwhelming in what should have been an advantageous matchup, we can take solace in the fact that all signs from snaps to carries indicate that Nick Chubb is no longer a factor in this offense.
Rather than starting a running back with unknown levels of workload, take the safety of Marks as a lead back in a good matchup against Buffalo. The Bills have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs, and the production hasn’t only been from elite backs. Even running backs like Ollie Gordon, Kendre Miller and Chuba Hubbard — after the emergence of Rico Dowdle — had touchdowns against the Bills. We’d obviously feel more comfortable if C.J. Stroud were playing, but the Texans’ defense should ensure this game remains fairly close, and Marks should get a hefty workload again.
My Projected Finish: RB21
Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG) vs. Detroit Lions
- Highest Rank: WR19
- Lowest Rank: WR26
Last week was a disappointing outing for Wan’Dale Robinson. We expected with Jameis Winston at quarterback that we’d have a significant increase in volume. Unfortunately, severe wind and a bad matchup resulted in low passing yardage. However, Robinson was once again the target leader in the Giants’ receiving corps and has 88 targets on the season. In four of the past five games, he’s had between nine and 12 targets.
It’s been a while since we’ve seen a ceiling game from Robinson, but he has a very safe floor in PPR. This week’s matchup against Detroit should encourage volume. The Lions have one of the league’s best run defenses, and their offense should exploit the Giants’ defense, meaning the Giants will be forced to chase points, ensuring volume for Robinson. At this point, we’re unsure who will play quarterback, but regardless of the starter, this is likely a double-digit target game for Robinson.
My Projected Finish: WR22
Christian Watson (WR – GB) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Highest Rank: WR24
- Lowest Rank: WR30
Christian Watson finally delivered the breakout we have been waiting for, erupting for four receptions on five targets for 46 yards and two touchdowns. The performance was not random. It matches the steady climb in his usage. Against New York, we finally saw the No. 1 WR version of Watson emerge, and the timing could not be better.
Green Bay faces Minnesota, a pass-friendly matchup that gives Watson a strong floor and upside. We’ll have concerns regarding Watson once Jayden Reed is back, but Watson’s role and efficiency make him a safe start.
My Projected Finish: WR24
More Safe Starts:
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
